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BUFFET: Never bet against America; he could add "...and against the FED"!


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 27 February 2021 - 12:24 PM

FED can change the rules or stop/resume the game anytime they want.... that's how it is, it is the reality, live with it or fight it....

 

MacroView: Powell Changes The Rules On QE

The markets took a tumble to start this week as rising interest rates and inflationary pressures begin to weigh on outlooks. Those worries quickly diminished as Jerome Powell changed the rules to reassure Wall Street that "QE" is here to stay.

In his speech, he committed to reaching maximum employment and the "average" inflation rate. To wit:

"I'm confident that we can, and that we will, and we are committed, to using our tools to achieving that. The three-year time frame is actually arbitrary and chosen by us. And you know, we're just being honest about the challenge.

We live in a time where there are significant disinflationary pressures around the world. Essentially all major advanced economies' central banks have struggled to get to 2%. We believe we can do it, we believe we will do it. It may take more than three years, but we'll update our assessment every quarter. We'll see how that goes."

Even Fed Governor Lael Brainard echoed Powell's statement:

"The economy remains far from our goals in terms of both employment and inflation, and it will take some time to achieve substantial further progress."

 

The markets immediately interpreted these statements correctly. The Federal Reserve will not be tightening monetary policy any time soon.

https://seekingalpha...the-rules-on-qe



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 27 February 2021 - 12:44 PM

BARRON'S best online broker:

1. Interactive Brokers / 5 stars

In 2020, Interactive Brokers established the benchmark for what a full-service, self-directed brokerage can do. For years, the active traders platform, Trader Workstation, has excelled. That hasn’t changed, and this past year, it again improved its advanced charting tools.

Equally impressive is just how good the company’s website is, adroitly demonstrating what’s possible in a clean, well-laid-out presentation. The company’s IBKR Lite, launched in October 2019, is a payment and marketing plan designed for the less active trader, but those users can easily benefit just as well from what Interactive Brokers has to offer.

https://www.barrons....-up-51614378883

 



#13 Rogerdodger

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Posted 27 February 2021 - 02:40 PM

"Beware the Ides of March" but....
Mike Burk:
Technical Market Report For Saturday, Feb. 27

"The market is oversold and the recent index highs were confirmed by the breadth indicators, so there should be new highs for the blue chip indices in the near future.
Average returns for the coming week have been positive by all measures."
March-Seasonal-2021.png

 

Ides-of-March.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 27 February 2021 - 02:45 PM.


#14 dTraderB

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Posted 28 February 2021 - 12:41 PM

Jay 'e-mini' Strizz (@StrizziJ) tweeted at 10:21 am on Sun, Feb 28, 2021:
I remain bullish as long as above 3666-3600. I think many people want longs here.

Which makes me think it will not come. I think they may get ~3750 instead.

Now 3808
(https://twitter.com/...9234223106?s=03)

#15 dTraderB

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Posted 28 February 2021 - 12:45 PM

Trailer Park Helen (@HelenTrailer) tweeted at 5:06 am on Sun, Feb 28, 2021:
Again, after the greatest financial crisis in modern history (the GFC in 2008), it took the Fed 5 years to add $3T to the balance sheet. A year ago, they added $3T in a few weeks. If you think they wont do whatever it takes to keep the ponzi going, youre not paying attention.
(https://twitter.com/...4837600256?s=03)

#16 dTraderB

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Posted 28 February 2021 - 12:46 PM

I agree with this... could be a multi-year top in 2021

David Hunter (@DaveHcontrarian) tweeted at 8:47 am on Wed, Feb 24, 2021:
S&P corrected back to its 50 day moving average yesterday & reversed upward. Equity markets now poised for a big run into the 2nd Qtr. S&P to 4600,Nasdaq to 17,000,DJIA to 37,000. Hold onto your hats. We're about to see what a true melt-up looks like. The economy is opening up.
(https://twitter.com/...4056534022?s=03)

I have a new rate forecast. Obviously 10yr is now heading directly to my target of 1.50%. From there, I expect a move back to 1.15-1.20% before Fed tightening takes 10yr to 2.50% later this year. 30yr to 2.40% here then back below 2% before rising to 3% in the tightening cycle.

#17 dTraderB

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Posted 28 February 2021 - 07:27 PM

Dougie Kass (@DougKass) tweeted at 8:07 pm on Sun, Feb 28, 2021:

40 handle S&P window undressing in the last few minutes on Friday - should be regained. My guess.

I can see a five day (plus or minus) rally then rollover and undercut just like September, 2020. Volumes same as well.
(https://twitter.com/...6877725698?s=03)

#18 dTraderB

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Posted 28 February 2021 - 07:30 PM

2nd nq hedge short 13030
I prefer to wait but system says open that hedge since 13010. SYSTEM IS RIGHT MOST OF THE TIME.

#19 12SPX

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Posted 01 March 2021 - 08:08 AM

Didn't do any rogue trades overnight but did just get filled at 3852 to start a short build.  So would've rather seen a nice spike lower this morning to wash this thing out, instead a sideways we will go! 



#20 12SPX

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Posted 01 March 2021 - 08:28 AM

First trade of March, might as well profit stop it at 3850 hopefully hold into the cash open.