Member
Posted 29 September 2021 - 04:30 AM
way back in the 1980's CRB put out a PR piece showing the relative distances in months of when various commoditite bottom against the US dollar
gold bottoms 11 months after the dollar...that puts gold bottom in 4Q 2021..we are close enough...Hurst cycle Jan 2022 for 18 month cycle to bottom..
nice to have a bigger picture roadmap.unrelated to wavecounts..
donc
Member
Posted 29 September 2021 - 08:29 AM
/SI has broken 22. Could get ugly.
Member
Posted 29 September 2021 - 10:08 AM
Looks like silver/miners capitulation is upon us, just starting to but that sector of the miners, my largest position remains KL/AEM and I love todays action there, added to AEM yesterday and today along with my remaining very large KL position - that has saved my rear end and made my drawdown very manageable here, as always DYODD
Senor
Member
Posted 29 September 2021 - 01:05 PM
BTW besides the gap I todmentioned in prev post in the HUI, .618 retracements of the 2020 rallies have either been reached (HUI 230.88 was .618) or are not that far away and right at the area of the possible gap fills (GDXJ .618 at 37.26) which would be gap fill area as well. Gettin closer and closer methinks
Senor
Hmmm, GDXJ low "so far" today is 37.31, within 5 ticks of .618 retrace and gap basically filled, will it matter? we see
Senor
Member
Posted 29 September 2021 - 03:22 PM
fwiw i think we are in an impulse wave down on the general market the actual elliot top coming on
sep 27 around 3 15 pm. we will see. this has implications for every market . just my take
Member
Posted 29 September 2021 - 04:36 PM
and if we are heading into a major selloff here gld has risk first to 147 and then
and then down to 137 . it is definitely doable imo
Member
Posted 30 September 2021 - 08:14 AM
BTW besides the gap I todmentioned in prev post in the HUI, .618 retracements of the 2020 rallies have either been reached (HUI 230.88 was .618) or are not that far away and right at the area of the possible gap fills (GDXJ .618 at 37.26) which would be gap fill area as well. Gettin closer and closer methinks
Senor
Hmmm, GDXJ low "so far" today is 37.31, within 5 ticks of .618 retrace and gap basically filled, will it matter? we see
Senor
Might it be a classic where GDXJ bottomed yesterday? Gap fill and Fibo hit, hugely oversold with sentiment at some of the most extreme levels seen over past 5-6 years, gotta like da chances, lets see if the early bounce can be sustained and extended
Senor
Member
Posted 30 September 2021 - 08:48 AM
keep in mind its end of QTR so the selling pressure is likely going to remain on the miners. My thought is identify what one likes and look to add, as always DYODD
Senor
Member
Posted 30 September 2021 - 09:02 AM
BTW besides the gap I todmentioned in prev post in the HUI, .618 retracements of the 2020 rallies have either been reached (HUI 230.88 was .618) or are not that far away and right at the area of the possible gap fills (GDXJ .618 at 37.26) which would be gap fill area as well. Gettin closer and closer methinks
Senor
Hmmm, GDXJ low "so far" today is 37.31, within 5 ticks of .618 retrace and gap basically filled, will it matter? we see
Senor
Might it be a classic where GDXJ bottomed yesterday? Gap fill and Fibo hit, hugely oversold with sentiment at some of the most extreme levels seen over past 5-6 years, gotta like da chances, lets see if the early bounce can be sustained and extended
Senor
Great chart!
Member
Posted 30 September 2021 - 09:09 AM
BTW Pesavento expects S&P500 at 3,000 by Thanksgiving.
