2512 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

 

Looking good for my WXY count. It's up to NY to see what they do now! It could hit that lower trendline at about 1740-1750 and does not need to go much lower.

Edited by linrom1, 15 October 2021 - 06:30 AM.

[CHAx]

 

Looking good for my WXY count. It's up to NY to see what they do now! It could hit that lower trendline at about 1740-1750 and does not need to go much lower.

 

Thats a scary WXY count I hadnt considered.  makes sense of the alternating 5-3-5-3-5 counts too!  I see 1771 as invalidating the most recent 1-2 action, until that happens, Id argue the bull count is more likely!

[CHAx]

 

 

 

Thats a scary WXY count I hadnt considered.  makes sense of the alternating 5-3-5-3-5 counts too!  I see 1771 as invalidating the most recent 1-2 action, until that happens, Id argue the bull count is more likely!

 

 My only critique, I think your C to D wave should be a WXY subwave.  Nice work my friend!

 

And you can see that if you label it that way, its possible to see a bullish count as well.

Edited by CHAx, 15 October 2021 - 06:58 AM.

[linrom1]

 

As they would say in Australian, this impulse wave was rather "dodgy."   I show that it was invalidated now?

[CHAx]

 

As they would say in Australian, this impulse wave was rather "dodgy."   I show that it was invalidated now?

 

yeah looking SUPER DODGY at this point, basically, you have to see the red 3 as a 5 instead, and now now that structure is a 1-2 and then your original 1-2 is still intact by like 0.3.

Edited by CHAx, 15 October 2021 - 07:43 AM.

[CHAx]

 

 

 

yeah looking SUPER DODGY at this point, basically, you have to see the red 3 as a 5 instead, and now now that structure is a 1-2 and then your original 1-2 is still intact by like 0.3.

 

 

Just ignore that comment, I looked to quickly and commented too quickly- not valid the way I was counting (and it was wrong pricewise too).  Anyway, back to the drawing board.  

Edited by CHAx, 15 October 2021 - 08:36 AM.

[linrom1]

Interesting, miners think this is a buying opportunity?

[linrom1]

Open interest in gold futures increases by only 532 yesterday and HANKE -COFNAS gold sentiment went down to 1.07 from 5.62.

[jabat]

Can We Make Gold Great Again Or Will Silver Build Back Better?

By Avi

I cannot tell you how disappointed I am in the GC action at the end of the week.  We had a wonderful set up for the GC to prove a larger degree standard Fibonacci Pinball 5-wave structure, and the action on Friday has made that potential unlikely.  It only leaves us with a potential leading diagonal, which those that follow me know is not highly reliable until it proves itself.

Yet, there is still bullish potential in the silver chart, as well as the GDXJ chart, which I am adding this week.  Zac posted a GDXJ chart, and I think there is a lot of clarity we can glean from it in both directions, which I will explain below.

Again, as far as the GC chart, the best I can come up with is a diagonal.  

But, I will note that silver can still be viewed as an impulsive structure, but will need to see a very strong move higher imminently in order to strengthen that potential.   In fact, I would normally expect a $1 move quite quickly in this posture, or else I will have to view this rally as another 3-wave corrective move up, which portends another lower low before this correction is complete.

GDX also does not count as a completed 5-wave structure just yet, and its pattern is not terribly clear either.  But, that is why I am going to take the opportunity this week to discuss the GDXJ, as it is providing us much clearer parameters.

As you can see from the attached GDXJ chart, the current rally counts much cleaner as a 5-wave move off the recent lows.  But, I will say that this 5-wave structure would be better perfected with one more move higher in wave v off the recent lows.  Now, let’s discuss what this represents.

While I would like to view it from the bullish perspective outlined in the green count on this chart, which views is as wave [i] off the recent lows, I cannot say I have a lot of confidence in that potential just yet.  While both GC, silver and GDX do not have structures which are as clearly impulsive as the GDXJ potential, it does place questions in my mind about relying on this chart to heavily just yet.  

The other issue I have is that the low struck in the GDXJ chart counts best as a 3-wave structure into that low, which is more indicative of the [b] wave in yellow.  That would interpret this rally as a [c] wave in a bigger wave 4 in the c-wave, as presented in yellow.

The last issue I have with the low being struck already is that we have only reached the .764 extension of the a and b waves in this corrective decline.  The traditional and more common proportion for such an a-b-c structure should take it to the 1.00 extension in the 33 region, again, as outlined in the yellow count.

This brings me full circle to the warning about when one should get aggressive on the long side in this complex.  Due to the questions regarding the smaller degree structures down here, I still need to see a full 5-wave rally develop, followed by a corrective 2nd wave pullback, followed by a rally over the high of the initial 5-wave structure.  This would turn me aggressive on the long side, and be able to enter aggressive long positions with a strong Fibonacci Pinball structure upon which I can rely for risk management purposes.

So, as I said in my last update, I am willing to give the bulls some room to prove themselves.   But, due to the action in GC on Friday, I am not going to give this market much more room before I will begin to expect another lower low before this correction completes.

Show less

[dougie]

 

Can We Make Gold Great Again Or Will Silver Build Back Better?

By Avi

I cannot tell you how disappointed I am in the GC action at the end of the week.  We had a wonderful set up for the GC to prove a larger degree standard Fibonacci Pinball 5-wave structure, and the action on Friday has made that potential unlikely.  It only leaves us with a potential leading diagonal, which those that follow me know is not highly reliable until it proves itself.

Yet, there is still bullish potential in the silver chart, as well as the GDXJ chart, which I am adding this week.  Zac posted a GDXJ chart, and I think there is a lot of clarity we can glean from it in both directions, which I will explain below.

Again, as far as the GC chart, the best I can come up with is a diagonal.  

But, I will note that silver can still be viewed as an impulsive structure, but will need to see a very strong move higher imminently in order to strengthen that potential.   In fact, I would normally expect a $1 move quite quickly in this posture, or else I will have to view this rally as another 3-wave corrective move up, which portends another lower low before this correction is complete.

GDX also does not count as a completed 5-wave structure just yet, and its pattern is not terribly clear either.  But, that is why I am going to take the opportunity this week to discuss the GDXJ, as it is providing us much clearer parameters.

As you can see from the attached GDXJ chart, the current rally counts much cleaner as a 5-wave move off the recent lows.  But, I will say that this 5-wave structure would be better perfected with one more move higher in wave v off the recent lows.  Now, let’s discuss what this represents.

While I would like to view it from the bullish perspective outlined in the green count on this chart, which views is as wave [i] off the recent lows, I cannot say I have a lot of confidence in that potential just yet.  While both GC, silver and GDX do not have structures which are as clearly impulsive as the GDXJ potential, it does place questions in my mind about relying on this chart to heavily just yet.  

The other issue I have is that the low struck in the GDXJ chart counts best as a 3-wave structure into that low, which is more indicative of the [b] wave in yellow.  That would interpret this rally as a [c] wave in a bigger wave 4 in the c-wave, as presented in yellow.

The last issue I have with the low being struck already is that we have only reached the .764 extension of the a and b waves in this corrective decline.  The traditional and more common proportion for such an a-b-c structure should take it to the 1.00 extension in the 33 region, again, as outlined in the yellow count.

This brings me full circle to the warning about when one should get aggressive on the long side in this complex.  Due to the questions regarding the smaller degree structures down here, I still need to see a full 5-wave rally develop, followed by a corrective 2nd wave pullback, followed by a rally over the high of the initial 5-wave structure.  This would turn me aggressive on the long side, and be able to enter aggressive long positions with a strong Fibonacci Pinball structure upon which I can rely for risk management purposes.

So, as I said in my last update, I am willing to give the bulls some room to prove themselves.   But, due to the action in GC on Friday, I am not going to give this market much more room before I will begin to expect another lower low before this correction completes.

Show less

 

yep