2512 replies to this topic

[jabat]

By Avi

The bounce I was expecting in the metals complex may turn out to be a bit more than a bounce.  I have been tracking the potential that this rally off the low in GDX is developing as a 5 wave structure.  If we can continue to a higher move into the box above without breaking back below the pivot, then I have a reasonable 5 wave rally.  That means we may have a (i)(ii)ii-ii structure developing.  So, if the market completes 5 up, provides us with a corrective wave ii back, and then takes out the high of wave i, I will likely go aggressively long in the complex, and will provide stop parameters.  

However, if we fail, and turn back down below the pivot before that occurs, that is a bearish indication.  Time for bulls to step up if they are going to take us up sooner rather than later.

[jabat]

By Avi

Should we hit the 32.20 region in GDX today, then we move to the point of no return.  At that point, if the market breaks back below the pivot before completing 5 up, then we have a STRONG bearish indication.  But, if we can get 5 up, then I may reconsider my view in the near term.

[Chilidawgz]

Almost but not yet. Let's see what Friday gives...

 

[senorBS]

Almost but not yet. Let's see what Friday gives...

 

My bottom line is that I believe a massive low is being put in place in this AREA, and whether we launch right away or churn/grind for another 2-4 weeks is immaterial for the bigger picture. MY OPINION is that from this area we can easily have a 50-100% rally, given that is my "opinion" I am accumulating into weakness accordingly, I also believe one of the recently weak stocks (AEM/KL) likely because of the merger agreement, will be a very good performer IF my int. to longer term scenario is correct. Was looking at some of the AEM vs gold/GDX ratios - dirt cheap IMO. I bot a little more this morning. IMO this is the time to avoid the "squiggles", buy as always it is simply my OPINION and DYODD

 

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 05 November 2021 - 11:35 AM.

[linrom1]

 

By Avi

Should we hit the 32.20 region in GDX today, then we move to the point of no return.  At that point, if the market breaks back below the pivot before completing 5 up, then we have a STRONG bearish indication.  But, if we can get 5 up, then I may reconsider my view in the near term.

 

GDX at 32.40.

[linrom1]

 

Almost but not yet. Let's see what Friday gives...

 

 

My bottom line is that I believe a massive low is being put in place in this AREA, and whether we launch right away or churn/grind for another 2-4 weeks is immaterial for the bigger picture. MY OPINION is that from this area we can easily have a 50-100% rally, given that is my "opinion" I am accumulating into weakness accordingly, I also believe one of the recently weak stocks (AEM/KL) likely because of the merger agreement, will be a very good performer IF my int. to longer term scenario is correct. Was looking at some of the AEM vs gold/GDX ratios - dirt cheap IMO. I bot a little more this morning. IMO this is the time to avoid the "squiggles", buy as always it is simply my OPINION and DYODD

 

Senor

 

The new AEM is going to be third largest miner in US. Barrick Gold - it looks like FMR stopped unloading it so that's where large funds will go, but like NEM, its production probably peaked;  AEM is growing.

Edited by linrom1, 05 November 2021 - 12:46 PM.

[Chilidawgz]

Northman Trader GDX

[senorBS]

I have two counts here and both are bullish. Correction of 5 up ended last week with a lot of "right shoulders" complete and its launchito norte we go this week in a wave 3, less immediate bullish count I see is last weeks low was "a", then late week rally high wave "b" and a "c" this week just below "a" and then launchito norte. Sorry bears while anything is possible I see no reasonaby bearish counts at this time does not mean I am right but just the way I see it, as always DYODD

 

Senor

[senorBS]

was lookin at SLV, worst case I see here is for a pullback to the 22 area to correct 5 up from last weeks low before further launch, more bullish count is it just keeps goin higher

 

Senor

[linrom1]

 

My NEM count is now bearish, as for bull case, the wave structure should be very bullish here, but, it's not?