2512 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

seems to me very few really embracing this miner rally and its potential - that makes Senor smile. Nothing is ever certain, we make our best guesses, I like the long side a lot but always scanning the charts for what I consider negative action, don't see any yet. For now I see a potential wave 3 basis daily and weekly charts unfolding, holding about 50% long. as always DYODD

 

Senor

so far looks to me like continued bullish action "overall", nice modest pullback/correction yesterday and rally resuming today. I still favor a large daily wave 3 is unfolding from the early Nov lows in stuff like GDXJ. Not going to over analyze/think it at this time, hopefully gonna keep surfin this wave.

 

Senor

[linrom1]

This is very tepid---lots of big sellers moved in as soon as miners rallied a bit. In fact,  gold is acting more bullish than miners? For example, NEM retraced almost 60% of its daily gain. Big guys aren't buying as long as rates are rising despite chorus of inflation screamers.

Edited by linrom1, 17 November 2021 - 10:38 AM.

[senorBS]

This is very tepid---lots of big sellers moved in miners as soon as it rallied a bit. In fact gold is acting more bullish than miners?

I think that is getting too caught  up in the weeds, I have looked at a lot of the daily miner/gold ratio charts and they look very constructive to me int term and maybe near term. For me I am not "sweating" the small day to day stuff, focused on the daily and weekly charts and they are telling me to ride da wave. That's my view, as always DYODD

 

Senor

[senorBS]

As a side note the earlier part of Nov is looking interesting for a possible massive "speculation" top. TSLA topped Nov 4, Russel 2000 topped Nov 8. BTC Bitcoin and URA (Uranium ETF) topped Nov 9. Key Q is are these declines temporary or were those really important tops?

 

And note miners made impt secondary (possible wave 2 lows) in early Nov....Hmmmm

 

Senor

[jabat]

from Elliot Wave Trader:

By Arkady

Silver: wave 4 on the Option 3 Micro chart may be over - and above 24.825 level my next target would be 25.83 - 25.92 area. Break below 24.825 would make the case for a deeper pullback in the wave 4 of the Option 2 Micro count (the diagonal scenario).

Gold: as mentioned yesterday, pullback reached the target zone for the wave iv - so impulsive-looking nano bounce might be a sign of the wave v of (iii) to the upside. However, possible alternatives (nano level) should be kept in mind:

- below 1851.1 pullback could reach 1834 region

- 1896.6 is interim resistance on the way higher - and it is an alternative target for the wave iii where we may get another pullback.

[jabat]

By Avi

If we do not get a regular wave (2) pullback, and break out through the box instead on silver, then I am left with only a potential larger 5-wave rally structure as a bigger leading diagonal.  And, it makes me consider the same in the other charts too.  For now, I am will just ride the long side if this happens, as it can be bumpy. (pushing up/knocking on the box now)

[senorBS]

 

As a side note the earlier part of Nov is looking interesting for a possible massive "speculation" top. TSLA topped Nov 4, Russel 2000 topped Nov 8. BTC Bitcoin and URA (Uranium ETF) topped Nov 9. Key Q is are these declines temporary or were those really important tops?

 

And note miners made impt secondary (possible wave 2 lows) in early Nov....Hmmmm

 

Senor

 

BTW I don't really care much about the possible speculative tops in those sectors I mentioned as far as trading goes, they are just at interesting junctures IMO. What I am long and focused on is the gold/silver/miner sector at this time

 

Senor

[jabat]

Hitting Our Head All Week – And, It’s Giving Me A Headache

By Avi

There really is not a lot for me to add to the weekend analysis in metals, as we have spent the better part of the last week hitting our head on resistance.  And, my preference remains for more of a pullback to set up a better upside trade.

But, I have to discuss the alternative at this time.  And, it is represented best by silver.  If silver is able to break out directly through its resistance box, then I am only left with a larger degree leading diagonal, which would be in the 3rd wave of that leading diagonal.

I suspect we may see the same type of structure in GDX, as its rally structure has been equally unclear.   But, GLD seems to suggest it can take the lead higher, and continue in its bullish structure.  And, as long as it takes out its pivot, then that pivot will then become support.

Overall, I am still bullish the complex, but I am still seeking a lower-risk entry for an aggressive long side trade.  And, as it presents today, I am not likely going to get it unless I see a pullback in the coming days.  But, if we take out resistance in GDX and silver, I am suspecting we may be dealing with a larger diagonal structure pointing higher, which will make it much harder to trade aggressively due to its lesser reliable structure.

[senorBS]

 

Hitting Our Head All Week – And, It’s Giving Me A Headache

By Avi

There really is not a lot for me to add to the weekend analysis in metals, as we have spent the better part of the last week hitting our head on resistance.  And, my preference remains for more of a pullback to set up a better upside trade.

But, I have to discuss the alternative at this time.  And, it is represented best by silver.  If silver is able to break out directly through its resistance box, then I am only left with a larger degree leading diagonal, which would be in the 3rd wave of that leading diagonal.

I suspect we may see the same type of structure in GDX, as its rally structure has been equally unclear.   But, GLD seems to suggest it can take the lead higher, and continue in its bullish structure.  And, as long as it takes out its pivot, then that pivot will then become support.

Overall, I am still bullish the complex, but I am still seeking a lower-risk entry for an aggressive long side trade.  And, as it presents today, I am not likely going to get it unless I see a pullback in the coming days.  But, if we take out resistance in GDX and silver, I am suspecting we may be dealing with a larger diagonal structure pointing higher, which will make it much harder to trade aggressively due to its lesser reliable structure.

 

Its a free world and anyone can post what they like, my "preference" is that I don't want to see this guys comments copied and posted here everyday. If there is something very important/pertinent then fine, but for me it just clutters things up and is distracting.

 

In fact why don't you start your own thread and post his stuff there? I see you also keep posting the same stuff  on the other large thread - are you advertising for him?

Edited by senorBS, 18 November 2021 - 12:35 PM.

[gannman]

i sdo believe the dollar could be in a major topping area here, good for commodities