2864 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

way back in the 1980's CRB put out a PR piece showing the relative distances in months of when various commoditite bottom against the US dollar

 

gold bottoms 11 months after the dollar...that puts gold bottom in 4Q 2021..we are close enough...Hurst cycle Jan 2022 for 18 month cycle to bottom..

 

nice to have a bigger picture roadmap.unrelated to wavecounts..

 

 

donc

Still watching GOLD EUR like a hawk here...

 

if it manages to climb out over 200 day one more time, then bears may not have the juice to take it down....

 

Thus far though, that break below a few days back still has ball in bears hands...likely pretty big decision in next day few days.

 

 

[K Wave]

DBA at interesting juncture here....

 

The 3 Drives to A Divergent top on the hourly worked its magic back down to the hourly 900.

 

Now is decision time....if it rolls over here, and goes through the 900 downside, then a flash crash type of correcction to back test DAILY 900 around 16.50 possible.

 

But if hourly lifts off here and kinks that momo back up, and the 3 drive top is taken out, things could get explosive to the upside....

 

so perhaps real big short term decision just ahead....

 

[K Wave]

Assuming the 20 area holds on Silver, this type of scenario still looking like a real possibility...

 

Can you imagine how bearish things would be with one more flush??

 

[K Wave]

$22 gone...This could be the beginning of that final wave down in Silver...

[linrom1]

$22 gone...This could be the beginning of that final wave down in Silver...

Already five waves down.....

[linrom1]

DBA at interesting juncture here....

 

The 3 Drives to A Divergent top on the hourly worked its magic back down to the hourly 900.

 

Now is decision time....if it rolls over here, and goes through the 900 downside, then a flash crash type of correcction to back test DAILY 900 around 16.50 possible.

 

But if hourly lifts off here and kinks that momo back up, and the 3 drive top is taken out, things could get explosive to the upside....

 

so perhaps real big short term decision just ahead....

 

It moved perfect 2.618 Fib.

[K Wave]

4.26 held by bears on Copper...

 

Now we see about 4.20....

[K Wave]

Gold steppin' up to the cliff edge...

[linrom1]

Hanke-Cofnas Gold Sentiment Index at -1.89. This is quite a shift from yesterday's -10. Let's see if price follows?

[dharma]

fwiw

imo metals under pressure until next weeks new moon.  by the way the merger of kl and aem is quite interesting.   whenever the run begins institutional investors will come back into the space, they will be looking for big companies. this merger qualifies as a large senior in the space. aems assets are respected. while gold is not . barricks holdings are in questionable domains. thus it sells at a discount to nem for example. this merger is a win.  not a space i play in.  i like playing in a space where gold in the ground is valued at less than 100 oz.  there you have potential for some serious price appreciation. yes its more risky.

so far nothing is surprising.  i think the broad market is on thin ice. earnings are less. tapering or rising rates are front and center. but its still very much a risk on environment

dharma