2864 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

Copper 2 hour....still a possible stick save in the works...IF...bulls can step on the gas pretty much right about here...

 

Otherwise, downside synchronicity will start to unfold....

 

HUGE pivot right here....

 

[CHAx]

I've had these two counts for a while now, posted before, the fit seems nice. 

 

Oil:

 

https://www.tradingv...com/x/Q3DcyMEB/

 

Plat:

 

https://www.tradingv...com/x/1Nnga6ww/

Edited by CHAx, 19 November 2021 - 11:38 AM.

[CHAx]

Classic gold smash into options expiration.  Gotta love how these criminals get away with this every single expirary.  I wonder why experienced traders never hold options into expirary.

[jabat]

Patience Pays Off

By Avi

For those of you that do not know my history of market analysis, I will tell you that the first major market call I made public was when I called for a top to a parabolic gold rally back in 2011.  At the time, gold was in the midst of a very strong rally in the summer of 2011, wherein we saw some days of $50 price moves to the upside.  In fact, the market was so bullish at the time, the only argument you would hear from analysts and market participants alike was how far beyond the psychological $2000 mark would gold break out.  The expectation of breaking out through $2000 was ubiquitous at the time.

Yet, in August of 2011, I posted a public article wherein I noted that:

“Since we are most probably in the final stages of this parabolic fifth wave ‘blow-off-top,’ I would seriously consider anything approaching the $1,915 level to be a potential target for a top at this time.”

As we know today, the market topped at the $1,921 region, and took almost a decade to come back to break out over the $2,000 mark.  

The point of my story is that even though the metals often look like they are moving strongly, we must remember that all metals’ tops were seen after very strong rallies which seem like they will never end.  And, one cannot allow the emotion of the price movement to affect their analysis of the market based upon the math.

Over the last few weeks, we experienced a strong move higher in the metals complex.  Yet, I was watching a very specific resistance region on all the charts I was analyzing. And, over the last week and a half, the market was hitting its head on that resistance.  Then, on Friday, we finally saw evidence of the pullback I had wanted to see.  So, sometimes, it takes a bit of patience, but the math often wins out at the end of the day.

I have now added target boxes for this pullback in the various metals charts I track.  And, admittedly, I am not sure how deep into those targets we can drop.  The downside patterns are not terribly clear in silver and gold, but it does look like we are in the midst of a 3rd wave in a c-wave down in GDX and GDXJ.   This basically means that I am going to be looking for a micro 4th wave bounce/consolidation, followed by a lower low before I can reasonably consider this pullback as potentially completed.

But, I do want to note something within the GDX and silver charts.  Event though we are pulling back as I had wanted to see, I am still going to have to track the potential leading diagonal structures in both those charts due to the initial rallies we have seen off the recent lows.  

Ultimately, the 1.236-1.382 extensions overhead are going to be our next resistances of note.  And, if we see a 5-wave structure that projects and tops in that region, I will be viewing it as a high probability that these charts are rallying in a leading diagonal.   What this means is that their respective 3rd waves off the recent lows will terminate in that region, and provide us with a very deep 4th wave pullback.  But, if the market can project us beyond that resistance based upon the Fibonacci Pinball structure off the next low we strike, then I will be more inclined to expect the higher 3rd wave targets as shown.

The main point one should take away is that the current pullback is a buying opportunity, especially if we get the 4-5 set up in this current pullback.  Moreover, you can place your stops just below the boxes noted on the charts.  

Therefore, if the market should complete this pullback in appropriate fashion, and then provide us with a 5-wave rally structure off those lows, I will be preparing for an entry on the long side in aggressive fashion, as I have been patiently awaiting for these last few weeks.  And, as the market develops that structure, I will certainly highlight it and let you know my trigger for an aggressive long trade in real time.

The last point I want to make this weekend is that there is some evidence to suggest that the current rally may top out around the same time as the rally I still expect to take us higher in the equity markets.  That could mean that we may be aligning for another “global-melt-up” in many different asset classes for the last nine months of 2022.  The last time I saw this type of set up was in early 2016, which was also the last time I called for a “global-melt-up,” wherein we saw almost all assets rally strongly together for many months.   We may be getting a similar type of set up for 2022.   As we progress over the next few months, it will certainly become clearer if this is again what we are setting up for 2022.  But, for now, I am seeing some potential signs for this scenario again.

[gannman]

on gdxj i think we probably completed and a wave of an abc correction this morning on the plunge

 

we will see. i have a turn in gdxj  on friday so i will watch this week i think wednesday is half a day

 

not sure if a full day then the turn would be on wednesday otherwise then friday morning  

 

and imo when gdxj trades above 47.26 again its a buy 

Edited by gannman, 22 November 2021 - 09:54 AM.

[K Wave]

Bulls really gotta hold this back test of 170 on GLD....

 

If they DO...then could be last chance to get aboard the train near that level....

[gannman]

same with fcsx as gdxj probably completed an a wave of an abc this morning 

 

now in a b wave rally . i have a turn in this stock either wed if it is a full day

 

or friday morning 

[K Wave]

Nice reversal off the spike down open thus far on GDX....

 

Need to see it back above 34 though, before I start to really believe that this may have been last chance to get aboard Gold Miner Train before long term liftoff....

 

Meanwhile ARKK getting crushed...Naz 100 may have peaked this AM...see how afternoon plays out after Bears gave bulls Da Finga on the Naz futures this AM....

Edited by K Wave, 22 November 2021 - 11:27 AM.

[K Wave]

Looks like it is pretty much TSLA and AAPL holding things together at this point....

 

If those starts tp reverse as well, could start to get a wee bit ugly on Naz soon...

Edited by K Wave, 22 November 2021 - 11:48 AM.

[tradesurfer]

Perhaps we do after all get one final deflationary CRASH down into 1st quarter of next year....

 

The US dollar looks bullish as all hell and could shoot up like a rocket....

 

bitcoin looks very toppy and ready to crash down.... gold and silver failed breakouts... Us stock market only being held up by a handful of stocks and bonds about to crash down really hard

 

and EEM emerging markets index about to turning into SUBMERGING markets  ( US dollar spike up, lead to countries outside of the USA defaulting on their debt  aka. not able to pay)

Edited by tradesurfer, 22 November 2021 - 12:09 PM.