6 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system the days next week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday the 14th, Wednesday the 16th and Friday the 18th of June.  In other words pretty much the whole danged week.

 

Last week the Monday the 7th of June risk window tagged the high for the week.  Apparently my concern for the 10th of June was not well founded since despite the DJIA running up and down sharply just after the open, it was pretty much unchanged by the end of the day.  

 

 

As I noted in last week's post, the inflation numbers this past week were off the hook, but to show my age and quote Gomer Pyle, surprise, surprise, surprise the bond market actually loved it and rose on the news, and as I predicted the first word out of every bozo on the business shows was "transitory".   In today's bond market one plus one equals tomato.  It's just completely in La La Land.    A 1.46% yield on a 10 year and a 3 to 10% inflation rate depending on whether you believe the BLS or Shadowstats just does not compute.  I'm sure in the fullness of time the reason for this aberrational bond market behavior will be clear as day, but as for me, transitory or not, I think that something's completely out of whack.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

[LMF]

My work shows a sizeable blow higher coming on TQQQ as early as Monday, but next week for sure. This is the one tracking minutes with a bullish 1-minute trailing stop during each session. Theyre sitting on it now every TD this month except June4. Should be ok up to the weekly bollinger band probably around 118 Im guessing. The PF target is 136. It would take 102 to start a Down leg on the PF chart.....not likely.

[Douglas]

LMF, interesting you should note a QQQ related vehicle.  Tom McClellan has mentioned in his twitter stream (@McClellanOsc) that the Q's tend to top on low volume relative to recent average volume.  As you can see from my crude hand drawn "average" on the plot below, average volume appears to be at a relative low now.  Of course it can always go lower or even drag out with several false starts as can be seen in the long volume lull late last year and early this year, but it would appear that sooner or later low volume is poisonous to the Q's.  Of course this daily chart is several orders of magnitude longer time from than one minute charts you reference, but big picture wise, there would appear to be the potential for some relatively near term downside risk in the Q's.

 

 

P.S.  If anyone knows of a way to plot volume averages on stockcharts.com, please respond to this note and educate me.  Thanks.

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 12 June 2021 - 02:27 PM.

[LMF]

The Qs have been consolidating since February. Not too hard to see how this turns out......it has to go higher.

[12SPX]

The Qs have been consolidating since February. Not too hard to see how this turns out......it has to go higher.

Oh oh makes me a little worried lol!!!  Market never does what it has to do, like a spoiled brat lol!!   

[robo]

If you traded the upper and lower BB tags using IWM/TNA/TZA you would have made some nice beer money.

Edited by robo, 14 June 2021 - 02:07 PM.

[robo]

 

The Qs have been consolidating since February. Not too hard to see how this turns out......it has to go higher.

Oh oh makes me a little worried lol!!!  Market never does what it has to do, like a spoiled brat lol!!   

 

IWM has been doing the same thing.... Back to the Feb 10 high...

 

https://stockcharts....040&a=970039333