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[Rogerdodger]

Last weekend's understatement from Mike Burk:

June 12, 2021
"seasonality for next week has been historically negative."

Saturday, June 19, 2021
"Average returns for the coming week have been modest and a little better during the first year of the Presidential Cycle than other years."
The market had a temper tantrum which coincided with a seasonally weak period. Tops take a while to develop, and this one has a way to go. The missing indication is a build up of new lows.



 

[Douglas]

Rodgerdodger, you may be on to something regarding the number of new lows not just yet reaching a critical level.  During the late 2018 FED Taper Tantrum as seen in the plot below, when the number of new lows on the NYSE rose above about 100, the downturn in the stock market got serious.   Apparently once the selling started creating those new lows in early October of 2018, it snowballed fairly quickly.  Currently as seen in the second plot below, the number of new lows on the NYSE is less than a third of that 100 mark.  I guess that so far the market snow is a bit too dry to stick together, but a few more Bullard's on CNBC might just make it sticky enough to get the ball rolling.  Of course the above assumes that folks don't just simply panic and hit the sell everything button bright and early Monday morning as several posters here have speculated.  

 

 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas