31 replies to this topic

[blustar]

I am now looking for an 8-1 TD low tomorrow, gaps at 4240, 4266 hourly and support near 4255 daily are possible downside targets for the [z] of 'b' of "c" of Y

[redfoliage2]

The re-balance date is June 30th though .....................

[GDA]

Big change in a 3 hour time window! 

Just when you think it cannot get any more absurd, it does.

[blustar]

A pull back into late June 30th 5/8 TD low is expected to test the 4256 area.  A  fairly strong rally is expected into July 1-2: a 3/11 TD low is expected on July 6 with a final high on July 7. We are 3 TD's past the full moon and due for a pull back.

 

For more updates, please visit my blog. I believe I have underestimated what is coming on the downside from July 7th to August 2-9. 

 

Part of trading is understanding when you are wrong and repositioning.  I was basing my predictions on a 10-15% correction. Based on the banking index and transports/Dow30 and the 72/144 week cycle, we may see much, much more.

 

BTW GDA, this is the Fearless Forecasters.  If we can't make a forecast and admit when we are wrong without nasty snide comments, then why post here at all?!

 

I admitted and corrected the early short at 4280 and got out at 4274.  We just hit 4300.  Now I'm saying 4256/57 late tomorrow.  A move back above 4300 looks to be in the cards before this weekend, IMO. I reserve the right to change my mind.

[12SPX]

This is why I prefer selling premium, make your trade sit back and wait to see where the market goes.  Although, still going to finish up this month with my 14 mths of no losses in trading.  Think this is the 3rd time this year volatility has disappeared and of course when they end the doomsayers come out.  One day though as I've said before the market remains ripe for a -5% fall overnight.  It remains so fundamentally expensive, sentiment too bullish and technically overbought at the least volatility will begin. 

[blustar]

Current analysis suggests a move back to 4266/67 SPX minimum by tomorrow late, 5/8 TD low, back above 4300 by end of week

[blustar]

Maximum around 4241

[hhh]

How can a maximum be less than a minimum?

[GDA]

A pull back into late June 30th 5/8 TD low is expected to test the 4256 area.  A  fairly strong rally is expected into July 1-2: a 3/11 TD low is expected on July 6 with a final high on July 7. We are 3 TD's past the full moon and due for a pull back.

 

For more updates, please visit my blog. I believe I have underestimated what is coming on the downside from July 7th to August 2-9. 

 

Part of trading is understanding when you are wrong and repositioning.  I was basing my predictions on a 10-15% correction. Based on the banking index and transports/Dow30 and the 72/144 week cycle, we may see much, much more.

 

BTW GDA, this is the Fearless Forecasters.  If we can't make a forecast and admit when we are wrong without nasty snide comments, then why post here at all?!

 

I admitted and corrected the early short at 4280 and got out at 4274.  We just hit 4300.  Now I'm saying 4256/57 late tomorrow.  A move back above 4300 looks to be in the cards before this weekend, IMO. I reserve the right to change my mind.

Look at the chart. 10-15% corrections are few and far between, yet you are calling for one every week. I wouldn't call this  "fearless forecasting"

Edited by GDA, 29 June 2021 - 01:13 PM.

[12SPX]

Whew that was close, the S&P almost turned red on this blistering volume.  I should take the summer off I think and watch premium decay lol!!