47 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Rested & ready to go for Q2 !!

Still think SPX 4400 before the BIG DECLINE begins in Q2

 

There Has Never Been a Year Quite Like This

• 
  Jason Goepfert

   

   Published: 2021-07-02 at 08:00:00 CDT

This year has marked one of the few times in history that both stocks and commodities have rallied at least 14% through this far into a year. In fact, it's the best year for both assets, edging out 1976.

For stocks, in particular, it's been one of the best, most consistent, and most persistent rallies year-to-date in its history. Through the end of June, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 14%, ranking in the top 85% of all years since 1928.

It's also been one of the most consistent years. The S&P has scored 34 record highs for the year already, ranking in the top 88% of all years. 

And it has been a very persistent rally. The S&P has now gone more than 150 sessions since the index was more than 5% off of its peak. That streak ranks in the top 93% of all years since 1928. 

Momentum is a strong force and doesn't usually roll over easily. If we look at the strongest, most consistent, and most persistent years through June, this year ranks among the best. 

The risk/reward for the last half of the year was decent after the other "best" years. There were almost no large declines in the months ahead, but gains also tended to be limited. That's a combination of a lot of buying power potentially already used up, along with what has frequently been a summer soft spot.
 

https://www.sentimen...quite-like-this

 

[dTraderB]

ES 4333.5 HEDGE LONG

 

Busy morning with CRUDE

 

Same last night

 

Traded a few Crude & ES yesterday

 

A losing week with a down FRIDAY to start July 

 

Will update positions later

[12SPX]

I've increased my short position once again to an average 4301 now and am willing to sit on it for a bit or at least 4300 lol!  My July 4300 call sell is under pressure but the 4350 and for sure 4400 should be good.  Option sentiment for calls is at extreme levels so the market is ripe for some kind of volatility to start soon! 

[slupert]

TNX 13.6 whooaaaa!

[pdx5]

Summer rally can carry the markets higher but it is a tired old bull. 

Now huffing and puffing to carry on. Then the goblins of Halloween await.

Edited by pdx5, 06 July 2021 - 10:56 AM.

[da_cheif]

Rested & ready to go for Q2 !!

Still think SPX 4400 before the BIG DECLINE begins in Q2

 

There Has Never Been a Year Quite Like This

• 
  Jason Goepfert

   

   Published: 2021-07-02 at 08:00:00 CDT

This year has marked one of the few times in history that both stocks and commodities have rallied at least 14% through this far into a year. In fact, it's the best year for both assets, edging out 1976.

For stocks, in particular, it's been one of the best, most consistent, and most persistent rallies year-to-date in its history. Through the end of June, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 14%, ranking in the top 85% of all years since 1928.

It's also been one of the most consistent years. The S&P has scored 34 record highs for the year already, ranking in the top 88% of all years. 

And it has been a very persistent rally. The S&P has now gone more than 150 sessions since the index was more than 5% off of its peak. That streak ranks in the top 93% of all years since 1928. 

Momentum is a strong force and doesn't usually roll over easily. If we look at the strongest, most consistent, and most persistent years through June, this year ranks among the best. 

The risk/reward for the last half of the year was decent after the other "best" years. There were almost no large declines in the months ahead, but gains also tended to be limited. That's a combination of a lot of buying power potentially already used up, along with what has frequently been a summer soft spot.
 

https://www.sentimen...quite-like-this

 

inexperienced youngsters like him will have a lifetime of surprises......
 

[da_cheif]

Summer rally can carry the markets higher but it is a tired old bull. 

Now huffing and puffing to carry on. Then the goblins of Halloween await.

u wirry 2 much  

[dTraderB]

LOL

thanks, chief

fond memories of your SILICON INVESTOR stuff

 

 

Rested & ready to go for Q2 !!

Still think SPX 4400 before the BIG DECLINE begins in Q2

 

There Has Never Been a Year Quite Like This

• 
  Jason Goepfert

   

   Published: 2021-07-02 at 08:00:00 CDT

This year has marked one of the few times in history that both stocks and commodities have rallied at least 14% through this far into a year. In fact, it's the best year for both assets, edging out 1976.

For stocks, in particular, it's been one of the best, most consistent, and most persistent rallies year-to-date in its history. Through the end of June, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 14%, ranking in the top 85% of all years since 1928.

It's also been one of the most consistent years. The S&P has scored 34 record highs for the year already, ranking in the top 88% of all years. 

And it has been a very persistent rally. The S&P has now gone more than 150 sessions since the index was more than 5% off of its peak. That streak ranks in the top 93% of all years since 1928. 

Momentum is a strong force and doesn't usually roll over easily. If we look at the strongest, most consistent, and most persistent years through June, this year ranks among the best. 

The risk/reward for the last half of the year was decent after the other "best" years. There were almost no large declines in the months ahead, but gains also tended to be limited. That's a combination of a lot of buying power potentially already used up, along with what has frequently been a summer soft spot.
 

https://www.sentimen...quite-like-this

 

inexperienced youngsters like him will have a lifetime of surprises......
 

 

[dTraderB]

What a market! Appears as if it is tying to make  up for closed US markets in Monday during other 4 days

FED Minutes today brings what? Maybe a lull for an hour or two before the release and then back to frenzied trading

With markets at or near ATH the FED usually throws out any unfavorable news at these market levels; some say the previous administration also did that - and even traded on it -  but they say that, not me. 

Expect the usual FED teasing etc but unless there is a major revelation the markets will ignore after a few hours and then focus on Q2 earnings. 

 

Markets normally rise into earnings and then fall back but this year is DIFFERENT!  I am not basing any market action in 2021 on any previous seasonality behavior etc. Trade as it comes except my hedged OPTION trades as market makes new ATHs

[dTraderB]

After a bad Friday and losing week, Monday & Tuesday were profitable.

Did not want to trade Monday but could not resist a fairly active market

 

Will again rebuild VXX CALLS position after closing a few yesterday. 

Will also close NQ hedge long on any spike up today and then reopen later or tomorrow

 

FLAT Crude but will again trade on the SHORT side above 73.8 after peace looks like breaking out between UAE and Saudis, or  US announces bearish crude news -- expect hints, rumors etc 

 

47 SPY PUTS

40 QQQ PUTS

12 VXX CALLS 

 

NQ 14710

ES  4341

ES  4333.5