4 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Wednesday & Thursday July 14th and 15th.  

 

Last week's risk summation system risk windows were so muddled that I didn't even bother posting them and good thing I didn't since both were duds and missed the mark.  

 

The 36/72 week cycles which I learned about from Tom Hougaard are calling for a turn now.  As you can see below, they have had some nice hits in recent years.  If the DJIA doesn't turn down this coming week, it will probably put a stake in the heart of this leg of these cycles. We'll have to wait until sometime around the ides of March 2022 to find out if they have suffered a true death. 

 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[pdx5]

Do you mean the up-trend continues until March 2022 if Dow does not turn down next week?

[Douglas]

pdx5, I think the up-trend continues until hades freezes over rock solid or the FED Head goes off to see the Wizard like the Scarecrow and gets a brain, whichever comes first.  Corrections, yes, and panics like March 2020, yes, and that's what the 36/72 week cycles might portend, but how can you get Baloo out of his den when he can just sit there on his couch sipping a Mai-Tai watching CNBC raking in all that lovely, virtually interest free FED funny money.  The only bee in the way of him getting his honey and other bear necessities is inflation, and we'll get a new fudged read on it this coming week courtesy of the Helen Keller School of Economics economists at the BLS.  Given their past number machinations, I seriously doubt that their latest work of fiction will turn the market tide.

 

The two really long cycles that I track which do fairly consistently tag bear markets point to 2022 or 2024, but Ben Bernanke and his successors have shot the tires out from under both of these cycles since the financial crisis, so I'm back to waiting on ice storms in the underworld. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[pdx5]

Loved reading your reply LOLOL

[Douglas]

IF, and that's obviously a very big "if", this 36/72 week cycle kicks in and turns the market down, the next question is how far will it drop.  The following plot shows Fibonacci and volume support levels since early 2020 in the SPY.  Optimistically (in the bearish sense of the term) the volume support peak and pivot at about 370 should stop the sell off, at 340 there is another volume peak and it's straddled by the 38 & 50% retracements and very pessimistically the 61.8% Fib support and volume support peak roughly at the nice round 300 should stop it.  Pick your poison, if.  

 

 

Regards, 

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 11 July 2021 - 01:37 AM.