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BEARS emerge from hiding but BULLS still in control...


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2021 - 03:10 PM

BEARS a bit more energized but this is still a BULL MARKET with BULLS in control but ST there could be a few % points down before new ATH, unless an unknown catalyst(s) reverses sentiment.

 

One of the "Sharpest" Rallies in 60 Years Is Rolling Over
 

https://sentimentrad...s-rolling-over/



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2021 - 03:13 PM

NO!

 
 
zCX0q9d5_normal.jpg
 
Warnings about overly bullish stock sentiment have been better left unheeded this year. Have times changed?
 

https://www.wsj.com/...600781?mod=e2tw



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2021 - 03:15 PM

Great stuff this week from SENTIMENT TRADER

 

 

Participation problems... Stocks have been hitting record highs but with record low members in uptrends according to this measure.

Participation problems... Stocks have been hitting record highs but with record low members in uptrends according to this measure.


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2021 - 03:18 PM

Have a great weekend! #ES_F closed the week *right at support of a 1.5 year bear wedge for the 6th test Plan next week: Pop then sell to 4280 where I'd long. Bulls need to recapture 4335 to see ATH's again though. 4335 can't reclaim we begin a downtrend to 4225 then 4080. $spx
 
Ugly afternoon for #ES_F and change from the typical Friday ramp. 4350 was my key support with 4335 below - we lost 4350, tried several times off 4335 & failed 4315-20 next which is core trendline support from March 2020.Likely bounce there but unless 4350 reclaims bulls at risk
Quote Tweet
 
 
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Adam Mancini
 
@AdamMancini4
· Jul 16
All week my key support in #ES_F has been 4350 & its been a true battleground: Bouncing 5+ times, failing, and recapturing Plan today: Bulls must hold 4350 or base above it which keeps 4400 then 4420 in play. 4350 fails its back down we go to 4335, 4315, then 4285 (big support) twitter.com/AdamMancini4/s…
 
Have a great weekend! #ES_F closed the week *right at support of a 1.5 year bear wedge for the 6th test Plan next week: Pop then sell to 4280 where I'd long. Bulls need to recapture 4335 to see ATH's again though. 4335 can't reclaim we begin a downtrend to 4225 then 4080. $spx


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2021 - 03:24 PM

 
 
7oO0djUy_normal.jpg
 

1) $CPCE closed Friday @ 0.69 (red lines)

2) Weekly Poll from

closed under 42% bulls (blue lines) Bears beware going into next week:


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2021 - 03:26 PM

60 - 40 BEARISH! 

 

Not necessarily contrarian BULLISH! 

 

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
 
UP
39.9%
 
DOWN
60.1%
3,225 votes·Final results
Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
 
UP
39.9%
 
DOWN
60.1%
3,225 votes·Final results


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2021 - 03:32 PM

Correct. Every time since the 1930s that total federal receipts has gone above 18% we have gotten an economic recession. Every time. Sometimes it does not quite have to get that high to do it. See https://mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/us_taxes_returning_to_economy-killing_level/.
Quote Tweet
 
 
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Double Individual Speculator
 
@x2IndSpeculator
· Jul 16
Replying to @McClellanOsc
But look at total receipts surging. That's recessionary.
 


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2021 - 03:32 PM

This is USEFUL

 

https://www.mcoscill...with_vix_index/



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2021 - 03:34 PM

In or near the BOUNCE zone but has to climb above the ZERO line for sustainable bullishness

 

 

 

McClellanOsc_1090.gif

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 18 July 2021 - 03:38 PM

 

Doug has been on a hot streak....  he did cover his SPY SHORT on ***THURSDAY" 

 

Today on

Code Red * The market is in chaos (and more unstable than many think) but most are ignoring it * The market averages are holding on by a thread * The supercharged Fed put is about to expire * Stocks are more overvalued relative to "fair market value"

han at any time in recent history * Market participants have been bamboozled into buying speculative gewgaws with little valuet