Jump to content



Photo

Bullish? rangebound? minor correction? or dreaded doomsday scenario?


  • Please log in to reply
57 replies to this topic

#1 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 25 July 2021 - 07:46 PM

From a TWITTER post, I like those choices and I select rangebound with minor correction initially, possible new ATH, but the 

most important outcome is the Doomsday Scenario in August/September. 

Interesting responses at the post

https://twitter.com/...940043792637965

 

Choose your own adventure! Here we take a look at four potential paths for $SPX in the next six weeks: the bullish scenario, the rangebound scenario, the minor correction scenario and the dreaded doomsday scenario. Which is most likely, and why? https://buff.ly/3kBlCUo
Choose your own adventure! Here we take a look at four potential paths for $SPX in the next six weeks: the bullish scenario, the rangebound scenario, the minor correction scenario and the dreaded doomsday scenario. Which is most likely, and why? https://buff.ly/3kBlCUo


#2 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 25 July 2021 - 07:47 PM

 
DOZMhePV_normal.jpg
 
Replying to
Fed continues to buy, expanding balance sheet, to record levels. SPX at record levels. Eventually it ends badly but until they stop or the world stops seeing value in US it doesn’t stop. Fed can’t stop
 
or this:
Replying to
As per NYSE AD/DC vs Indices, unless that divergence resolves higher for the AD/DC then the indices are heading south. The underlying broad message is more stocks are Declinig than Advancing which has led most often to a correction
 
DOZMhePV_normal.jpg
 
Replying to
Fed continues to buy, expanding balance sheet, to record levels. SPX at record levels. Eventually it ends badly but until they stop or the world stops seeing value in US it doesn’t stop. Fed can’t stop


#3 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 25 July 2021 - 07:54 PM

Watched that VXX chart in amazement as ES rallied to new ATHs but VXX never tested recent lows.  Maybe more LONGS are hedging, good idea.

Or, maybe, I overthink this VIX/VXX thing.

rCsYSbb4_normal.jpg
 
Friday's put/call ratio for the VIX was 1.71, the highest reading since March 30th
 
Replying to
Also VIX hasn't gone down past 2 trading days even though SPX up 50 points.
 
Replying to
And the 12 trading days that followed 3/30? $SPX was green 9 out of those 12 days and up 6% those two weeks!
Replying to
Big "event" week. Lotta hedges being put on.
 
 
rCsYSbb4_normal.jpg
 
Friday's put/call ratio for the VIX was 1.71, the highest reading since March 30th


#4 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 25 July 2021 - 07:57 PM

More  NEW LOWS than NEW HIGHS 

Things you don't want to see with a market at new highs. The column of stocks at new highs is shorter than the one at new lows.


#5 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 25 July 2021 - 08:00 PM

Not 100% interested in my NQ trades now, closing this SHORT

 

ZVBuToeP_normal.jpg
 
 
Have a great weekend! This week #ES_F bears got trapped by the *exact* setup as June: Fake break down of core wedge from March 2020 Logical target now wedge resistance at 4440 (if 4350 holds). Pullback there, but unless bears lose a support for once, it just sets up 4600. $SPX
 
ZVBuToeP_normal.jpg
 
 
 

Edited by dTraderB, 25 July 2021 - 08:00 PM.


#6 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 25 July 2021 - 08:02 PM

Have been looking at these levels and comparing with Mancini's:

 

Arastoo Fazeli (@ArastooFazeli) tweeted at 5:44 pm on Sat, Jul 24, 2021:
Weekly plan for $SPX:

For next week major resistance and upside target at 4453-4468.

First (minor) support at 4385.   Below that stronger support at 4367 & then 4353-4355 & 4323-4331.

If there is a dip BEFORE upside target, it can be a long.

 

 

Not 100% interested in my NQ trades now, closing this SHORT

 

ZVBuToeP_normal.jpg
 
 
Have a great weekend! This week #ES_F bears got trapped by the *exact* setup as June: Fake break down of core wedge from March 2020 Logical target now wedge resistance at 4440 (if 4350 holds). Pullback there, but unless bears lose a support for once, it just sets up 4600. $SPX
 
ZVBuToeP_normal.jpg
 
 
 

 



#7 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 25 July 2021 - 08:07 PM

Challenging the ZERO Line from below; I think it fails this week at the first attempt

 

McClellanOsc_1095.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#8 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 25 July 2021 - 08:13 PM

I wonder about this, what is the motive of China?  The end game?

 

 

Opinion: This is your final warning — Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are dangerous to hold

 

Last Updated: July 24, 2021 at 9:33 a.m. ET First Published: July 22, 2021 at 2:24 p.m. ET
With China crackdown arriving as U.S. prepares to enforce new rules on Chinese companies listing their shares here, there is great potential for individual investors — even those with passive investments in funds — to take the pain

https://www.marketwa...old-11626978306



#9 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 25 July 2021 - 08:16 PM

The Obvious events this week:

 

1. The main attractions arrive: Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon and Tesla headline the biggest week of earnings

 

2. A ‘delta’ chill in the air? The economy is still booming, but it faces new uncertainty

 

3. Fed to tiptoe towards tapering this week

 

I think CHINA could be the surprise....



#10 kinga200

kinga200

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 594 posts

Posted 26 July 2021 - 12:45 AM

Fed continues to buy, expanding balance sheet, to record levels. SPX at record levels. Eventually it ends badly but until they stop or the world stops seeing value in US it doesnt stop. Fed cant stop

Question. The Fed cant legally buy stocks out right. BUT the primary dealers can. Thus QE after the sub prime. Back then buy junk from primary then instruct to buy the market with it.

There are other times with this liquidity play. We will see. But I stand it will end soon. Then massive drop. I thought maybe 30-40%. Now 40-50%. Then the washout. And imho the longest bear in history.

Im 57yrs and Im not really worried about my baby boomer class. Its my kids n grand children.

THIS is a dangerous game. Even back during sub prime Big Corp was being bailed out? I remember when America used to let fail. U cant keep supporting a no recession with debt. What in history a recursion occurs at least 7yrs. None in the last 13yrs?

Japan tried this. Gov buying into the market to keep it proped up. As well remember Japan market was increasing n they were buying real estate in America in the 80s. Google it.

So now China. The Yaun.. we have no idea what that is worth. Its not publically traded.

The reason why the dollar will be the worlds currency IS we spread the love. U think we give out billions n billions to countries all over the world Bc humanitarian. NO we want them to use it n keep using it. Again spread the love.

Think about all this.