31 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

EOM

[tradesurfer]

Are you sure ?  I had been thinking down and sharp correction for quite some time.  

 

But the reality is that the DJIA has been trading basically trading in a sideways rectangle since May 11th.  That rectangle has an upward measurment.  Admittedly the breakout north from the rectangle is weak and slow but we are in mid August.  For all i Know it will accelerate up after labor day.

 

The virus stuff is already probably baked into the cake.  Jobs are available everywhere and GDP is strong.

 

what is the catalyst that will tank this market. 

[redfoliage2]

I cannot be 100% sure, but we may see a heads-up as soon as Monday .....................................

[cycletimer]

For what its worth, this is my second short trade in a row.  Last one was just before the drop in July.  I am at it again.  I bought the QQQ Sept 1st, 2021 365 strike puts today.  

I believe there's 1000 points of downside in the Nasdaq and it will come hard and fast, whether that's next week is anyone's guess but I did go short on this current Bradley date.

[andr99]

Are you sure ?  I had been thinking down and sharp correction for quite some time.  

 

But the reality is that the DJIA has been trading basically trading in a sideways rectangle since May 11th.  That rectangle has an upward measurment.  Admittedly the breakout north from the rectangle is weak and slow but we are in mid August.  For all i Know it will accelerate up after labor day.

 

The virus stuff is already probably baked into the cake.  Jobs are available everywhere and GDP is strong.

 

what is the catalyst that will tank this market. 

 

great comment.....100% correct imo

[xe2dy]

"what is the catalyst that will tank this market." CCP embargo of Taiwan? 

[pdx5]

Are you sure ?  I had been thinking down and sharp correction for quite some time.  

 

But the reality is that the DJIA has been trading basically trading in a sideways rectangle since May 11th.  That rectangle has an upward measurment.  Admittedly the breakout north from the rectangle is weak and slow but we are in mid August.  For all i Know it will accelerate up after labor day.

 

The virus stuff is already probably baked into the cake.  Jobs are available everywhere and GDP is strong.

 

what is the catalyst that will tank this market. 

If every virus is already baked into the market, why do we get sharp drops of 25% within a month (March-April 2020)?

[tradesurfer]

I guess I was trying to say that the virus news is sort of old repetetive news at this point.  And in a way the market likes more lingering virus news because it means more government support and stimulus and fed support.

 

That being said, if the virus situation does morph into one that has much much higher fatality rates as a percent of those infected and the vaccines cannot stop it, then I think that could really crash the market again.  Armrstong has said that 2022 is when the 'big one' in terms of virus impact was supposed to come in as a cycle.

 

 

 

 

 

 

If every virus is already baked into the market, why do we get sharp drops of 25% within a month (March-April 2020)?

 

 

[blustar]

Im thinking now we go up into Aug 23 and then start dropping from there.

[blustar]

Actually, on the SPX we could drop some into the 18th (2 month cycle low), maybe down around 4410, but the 23rd and maybe the 25th could see the final top around the same area we just closed.