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Risk Windows for Week of 20 September and October Key Risk Window


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 18 September 2021 - 01:34 PM

According to my risk summation system, the days next week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday the 20th of September and Friday the 24th.  I was surprised when FED Wednesday didn't make the cut, but maybe they won't say anything too non-liquidus just yet.  Jerome will be making a speech on Friday the 24th where he could try to sneak one over the goal line without as much attention as the FED press conference.

 

Last week the Tuesday risk window tagged the DJIA low and the high for the week all wrapped up in one day.  The Friday risk window may have caught a low depending on what happens during the Monday the 20th risk window.  It is possible that the Friday the 17th and Monday the 20th risk windows are actually just one wide window, which a new low on Monday would confirm. If there is a rally on Monday, they are separate windows. 

 

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The next key risk window is centered a bit more than two weeks away on October the 4th.  In the past these key risk windows have tagged crashes and multiyear lows in the DJIA.  These key risk windows only work about one in thirty times that they have occurred, and they don't occur all that often.  Given the FED money pump is running in overdrive, a crash is hard to envision, but if by some miracle they finally see the error in their ways and mention tapering the funny money during the presser this coming Wednesday the 22nd or maybe even during the Friday speech, a nasty reaction at some point in the next few weeks may not be that far fetched because heaven knows we can't have a happy stock market without money oozing out of absolutely every pore of the FED.  

 

Regards,

Douglas