3 replies to this topic

[slupert]

transcript.pdf (goldmansachs.com)

[slupert]

3.75 core PCE.

[Rogerdodger]

Headline Quote  (as always): "It depends"

(I could have told you that...for free! LOL!)
It's a little bit less clear how quick the tapering would
occur. We haven't gotten as much indication about that.
Our baseline is that they reduce purchases by $15 billion
per meeting. So, if they start from $120 billion a meeting,
that would basically take them down to zero by October
next year. There are some people who want to go faster.
But that's, I think, still an open debate. And ultimately, we
think it's probably going to be something more like $15
billion.
That would then mean that by the fourth quarter of next
year, you could in theory start to hike rates. They're not
going to be hiking while they're tapering QE. But for that
you would probably need to see significantly higher
inflation and somewhat stronger growth than what we have
in our forecast. So in our forecast it takes until maybe third
quarter of 2023 before you then get the first rate hike.
And it really depends on the
economic outlook and what we see in the numbers.

[Rogerdodger]

I saw a home on Zillow that went up in price 10% since last month!

Probably based on a similar sale last month.

 

But the tide is turning.

 

Americans Haven't Been This Down on Housing Market Since 1982!

 

(Bloomberg) -- The last time Americans were this turned off by the U.S. housing market, borrowing costs were over five times the current rate.

The share of people who think now is a good time to buy a home fell in September to 29%, extending the plunge from March when the proportion was more than twice as high, data from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed Friday. It’s also the smallest chunk of respondents since 1982.

Back then, the average for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage topped 15%. That compares with today’s 2.86% rate, according to Freddie Mac.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 19 September 2021 - 12:29 PM.