50 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Friday was my best day since early this month but still not closing profitable SHORTS and  I intend to hold  & build SHORTs with partial hedges until the NOVEMBER FED TAPER decision.

 

Reiterating the inflation warning:

 

Yellen expects inflation to linger, then ease later in 2022

The most recent Consumer Price Index showed prices have gone up 5.4 percent in the past 12 months.

 

https://www.politico...ion-2022-517002

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com...ral-months.html

[dTraderB]

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

Oct 23

 

Have a great weekend! All September, #ES_F built a textbook bull flag & on Oct 14 broke out for a 130 point rally. '

The "measured move" flag target is 4700+ but not direct

 

Next week: Looking to 4575-80. From there, a good multi-day selloff buyable to new highs. Detail below $SPX

[dTraderB]

 

 

Helene Meisler

@hmeisler

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  52.7%
•  

  DOWN

  47.3%

2,720 votes·Final results

7:03 AM · Oct 23, 2021

[dTraderB]

 

 

Tom McClellan

 

@McClellanOsc

·

Oct 23

 

Careful. While that is usually a good rule about A-D Line strength, there are exceptions.

Puru Saxena

 

@saxena_puru

 

NASDAQ 100 is still below its September peak but its Advance/Decline Line has climbed to a record high. This suggests that the index will play catch up and we are likely to get a decent year-end rally (seasonality is now favourable for stocks).

 

 

 

Tom McClellan

 

@McClellanOsc

·

Oct 23

 

Careful. While that is usually a good rule about A-D Line strength, there are exceptions.

[dTraderB]

Puru Saxena

 

@saxena_puru

·

Oct 23

 

On Thursday, $SPX surpassed its August peak - Record-high weekly close, bull-market is intact.

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

Puru Saxena

 

@saxena_puru

· Sep 20

This pullback appears to be quite similar to the 2013 taper tantrum. After 6-7% decline in May/Jun 2013, indices rallied for over a year - history suggests recent peak was *not* the bull-market top. High odds that lies ahead. Time will tell.

[dTraderB]

Tom McClellan

 

@McClellanOsc

·

Oct 22

 

Spot VIX Index at 14.96 at the moment, but its most expensive futures contract is June 2022 at 24.95. That creates the biggest such spread since 2017. It means the VIX futures traders are not agreeing with the bullish SP500 options traders who are driving down the spot VIX.

 

[dTraderB]

Treasury-Bund Yield Spread Shows Troubling Divergence

 

The interesting point about this yield spread between U.S. and German 10-year bonds is how well that spread correlates to the movements of the stock market.  Or at least that is the case most of the time.  When they start disagreeing, that is when the relationship gets more interesting.

The yield on German bunds is rising (becoming less negative) faster than the U.S. 10-year T-Notes, and that means the spread shown in this week’s chart is falling.  Normally this spread moves in step with the stock market, and so this behavior creates a bearish divergence relative to the DJIA.  That is a problem, although as we see from a couple of examples in the chart, it is not necessarily an insurmountable problem.  Sometimes divergences can get rehabilitated. 

For now, however, this is a warning of trouble for the stock market, much like the warning that this spread gave us before the Covid Crash.  That divergence did not cause the emergence of the virus, nor the reaction of multiple governments to shut down economic activity in response to the virus.  But it did show that the financial markets were in a vulnerable state, poised to react more strongly to the appearance of outside stimuli. 

 

https://www.mcoscill...ing_divergence/

[dTraderB]

Back to 100

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

Just GREED at this time...

 

 

 

Put and Call Options

Extreme Greed

During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 59.12% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. This is among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme greed on the part of investors.

Last changed Oct 20 from a Greed rating

Updated Oct 22 at 4:50pm

 

 

Market Momentum

Greed

The S&P 500 is 4.64% above its 125-day average. This is further above the average than has been typical during the last two years and indicates greed on the part of investors.

Last changed Oct 19 from a Neutral rating

Updated Oct 22 at 5:04pm

 

[dTraderB]

Link for above:

https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/