Quick Review. Posted in Early July that I thought we would have a 5% to 7% correction by late August and then new highs by early October. Was a month early on both. We got the correction by late September and the rally to new highs took until late October and has continued in November. The main point was that this was a possible setup for a 30% decline starting before year end and ending by mid year. So now that we are here, what do I think about a 30% decline starting soon.
FUHGEDDABOUTIT. Sorry but the internal strength of the rally was more than would be expected if a really large decline was about to begin. I do think we will have a two week decline plus or minus starting in the next week or so, but then I would expect that by early December we start another rally to even higher levels. I wouldn’t rule out a large decline next year as that has been the norm for the 2nd year of first term presidents of a new party, but for now there is no setup.
On another note, I’ve been impressed with the very spirited debate regarding, Covid, The Vaccine and other therapy’s. All sides have been well represented. I have nothing to add, other than I wish everyone the best of health regardless of what choices you make.