Jump to content



Photo

An Overvalued, Overbought & Overleveraged Stock Market While The Fed Tightens, What Could Go Wrong?


  • Please log in to reply
76 replies to this topic

#31 redfoliage2

redfoliage2

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 18,022 posts

Posted 23 November 2021 - 02:50 PM

Whew you mean sell off and that's even bigger than blu's forecast wow!!! 

It's a typo:  should be 4700 or higher ..................


Edited by redfoliage2, 23 November 2021 - 02:57 PM.


#32 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 17,335 posts

Posted 23 November 2021 - 08:58 PM

Normal Thanksgiving rally, but looks quite weak, could still reach ATH by next week 

 

Maybe new ATH rally now, then down again next week, and final DECEMBER RALLY
 

Wow that is really interesting d especially the seven sentinels numbers!!  NOnetheless still have my short on from 4725 with a profit stop for the open of 4690 for the cash open but will start selling just above again.  Also did my Dec. call sells yesterday for nice prices but have resisted posting them because I still have to show my Nov losses lol!!  In the end it wasn't too bad as I started getting out on WWW but nonetheless the 4600 calls saw a loss of -$20 as my rules say I have to get out if the price moves that much above the sold price, 4650 calls -$23 but very funny my normal 4700 calls where my program numbers were had a profit of $22 as I built them as the market rose.  Did have full profits on my 4200 puts for $16, 4000 puts for $10 and 3800 puts for $6.  So far for Dec I've sold the 4850 calls for $12, 4900's for $5 and the $4950's for $2.  We'll see how long I hold the 4850's and havn't added my puts just yet!! 

 



#33 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 17,335 posts

Posted 23 November 2021 - 09:03 PM

Another green day but not as good as yesterday. As I posted, I expected a Thanksgiving rally and got it. May still rally for rest of  shortened trading week. 

Closed several PUTS and VXX CALLS. Decide early in the day to close VXX CALLS since it was not rallying as it should on a market up day and also eroding in anticipation of long weekend,

Still FLAT CRUDE but will short above 79 or 80 if traded. Holding all hedges as posted earlier.

 

58 QQQ PUTS
2NQ HEDGE LONG

 

30 SPY PUTS

1 ES HEDGE LONG

7 VXX CALLS.

 

 

Best day in 2 months! 

LONG RED DAILY CANDLES, hanging....

DOLLAR soared, VXX made 8-day high, SPY closed 6 points lower than ATH made today, QQQ closed more than 8 points from ATH made today

 

73 QQQ PUTS

37 SPY PUTS

1 ES LONG HEDGE

2 NQ HEDGE LONG

20 VXX CALLS

 

FLAT CRUDE & NAT GAS -- messy markets

 

CLOSING 5 of 82 QQQ PUTS opened earlier today. Will close another 5 or 7 if it continues to drop....
Holding 32 SPY PUTS
1 ES HEDGE LONG
2 NQ HEDGE LONG
35 VXX CALLS

WILL close a few VXX CALLS

 



#34 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 17,335 posts

Posted 23 November 2021 - 09:04 PM

Worth noting: Seasonality now bullish until Dec 6th, with Thanksgiving historically strong. Tomorrow has been green ~70% of the time last 50 years, and Friday ~60% As always though, *only* price matters. Bulls need to hold 4650-4630 supports or another big down leg en route


#35 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 17,335 posts

Posted 23 November 2021 - 09:07 PM

Could remain below zero for a few more days

 

McClellanOsc_1182.gif

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#36 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 17,335 posts

Posted 23 November 2021 - 09:09 PM


 
rCsYSbb4_bigger.jpg
 
Breadth red (NYSE) 7 straight. Longest streak since December 2018


#37 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 17,335 posts

Posted 24 November 2021 - 08:48 AM

ES LONG HEDGE 4667.5

#38 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 17,335 posts

Posted 24 November 2021 - 08:50 AM

16199 NQ HEDGE LONG

#39 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 17,335 posts

Posted 24 November 2021 - 08:51 AM

REDUCING RISK OVER HOLIDAY PERIOD.

#40 redfoliage2

redfoliage2

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 18,022 posts

Posted 24 November 2021 - 08:54 AM

Both PCE and GDP price data just released indicate that inflation in the US has stabilized.  The Fed's view on inflation as transitory may be correct ....................


Edited by redfoliage2, 24 November 2021 - 09:02 AM.