8 replies to this topic

[q4wer]

we might have seen the top of century.

[LMF]

May not want to look at AAPL this week

[gannman]

if we break 4500 in the sp we probably are in a bear market  imo

[fib_1618]

And down we go down and through the NYSE Composite McClellan Summation Index zero line where "crash like" events can occur.

 

Fib

[andr99]

what crash ? Europe bounced today from an important IT bottom, a strong support zone and is set up to rise until February. Can you figure Europe in a counter trend to that of America ? I cannot. I suppose America will sustain the rise in Europe because there's no rise in Europe if America falls...and I' m pretty sure Europe will rise. So that if I have read well the charts of European indexes I have to conclude that America will rise bringing Europe up with itself. Don' t worry and be happy.....there's no top of the century here.  In a rising trend, there are correction sometimes 

Edited by andr99, 01 December 2021 - 03:42 PM.

[chem]

And down we go down and through the NYSE Composite McClellan Summation Index zero line where "crash like" events can occur.

 

Fib

Two other pts to make here the NYSI turned down from a test of 500 from below and is crossing the zero line with the NYMO at its lowest level of this sequence, ie...we are seeing the greatest acceleration to the downside internally as the summation makes its crossover.

[slupert]

yep, bad  and kiss it goodbye. Fed too far behind the curve. (JMHO)

[fib_1618]

 

And down we go down and through the NYSE Composite McClellan Summation Index zero line where "crash like" events can occur.

 

Fib

 

Two other pts to make here the NYSI turned down from a test of 500 from below and is crossing the zero line with the NYMO at its lowest level of this sequence, ie...we are seeing the greatest acceleration to the downside internally as the summation makes its crossover.

 

I've coined this kind of technical pattern as "Summation Failures", and to be sure, we've had several other important support levels broken over the last few days in many of the breadth MCSUM's.

 

Here's this year's "evolution" from the chat transcripts:

 

********

November 16th:

 

Nov 16, 5:18 PM

fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO also moved down and through its zero line today as well

 

Nov 16, 5:19 PM

fib1618: but it remains nicely above the longer term rising line of triple bottoms going all the way back to July

 

Nov 16, 5:21 PM

fib1618: we'll note here that it will important for the buyers to hold the +500 line on the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM during this continued pause from last week or face a possible bear market signal if and when the MCSUM continues to decline back below the zero line from its current levels

 

Nov 16, 5:25 PM

fib1618: for now, let's consider this as part of a high level consolidation pattern where we challenged the ceiling today of a trading range, and we're now likely to pullback to the floor of this same range...for the NYA that would be around 17,200

 

********

November 18th:

 

Nov 18, 5:12 PM

fib1618: more importantly in all this is that the lower readings in the MCO have now turned the NYSE CO (common only stocks) breadth MCSUM to the downside from about the +475 level

 

Nov 18, 5:15 PM

fib1618: as mentioned before, with the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM not making up and through the +500 level, this now changes the landscape a bit as to what we should expect as we go into the month of December...that any upside momentum move in prices from the October breadth thrust, is not likely to continue past December OPEX on the 17th

 

Nov 18, 5:16 PM

fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO finished at a -42 today with the same negative action noted in the NYSE MCO components

 

Nov 18, 5:17 PM

fib1618: even more negative here is that the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM was turned away from just above the +500 "escape velocity" level

 

Nov 18, 5:18 PM

fib1618: with any continued decline from here that would take this indicator down and through the zero line generating a classic MCSUM bear market signal

 

Nov 18, 5:19 PM

fib1618: for now, the current floor of this still developing trading range for the NYA is at 16,925...a little less than 200 points from current levels

 

Nov 18, 5:20 PM

fib1618: we'll also note that if prices can find support at this same trading range floor, this would also suffice as a technical snapback to the old all time highs seen at the beginning of September, and with a little internal help, a resumption of the current advancing price sequence can be seen

 

Nov 18, 5:21 PM

fib1618: oh...and let's not forget that this week's declines in both NYSE MCO's triggered bear divergence with the recent all time highs

 

********

November 23rd:

 

Nov 23, 5:06 PM

fib1618: after reaching the -61 level on Monday, the NYSE CO breadth MCO popped higher today to a reading of -43

 

Nov 23, 5:07 PM

fib1618: this allowed the 5% Trend to begin its obligation of a technical snapback to or toward the zero line that was violated on Monday

 

Nov 23, 5:08 PM

fib1618: with this MCO now on a short term sell signal, and the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM also moving down and through the +250 level today, the best we're likely to see for the NYA for the rest of the week is a game of EMA tag between the 20 day and 50 day EMA's

 

Nov 23, 5:09 PM

fib1618: Monday's reading of -53 in the NYSE Composite breadth MCO also bounced higher today by a small point change of +3 to finish a point above natural resistance at the +50 level

 

Nov 23, 5:10 PM

fib1618: with this small point change then, let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions

 

Nov 23, 5:13 PM

fib1618: we'll note that the price action found intraday support at the late October lows which now expands the preferred vertical width of the trading range from last week

 

********

November 30th:

 

Nov 30, 5:05 PM

fib1618: after a lethargic reflex on Monday, the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved deeper into "oversold" territory today as it finished with a reading of -95

 

Nov 30, 5:06 PM

fib1618: this is now the lowest reading we've seen since the March 2020 crash

 

Nov 30, 5:06 PM

fib1618: we also see that the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line today which helped the market bears in today's sell off as intermediate term control moved from the buyers to the sellers

 

Nov 30, 5:08 PM

fib1618: next potential level of price support for the NYA is the 16,200 level where we see the 200 day EMA, and this was also the floor of our trading range since last May

 

Nov 30, 5:09 PM

fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO also saw new reaction lows today as it finished with a reading of -78

 

Nov 30, 5:09 PM

fib1618: the good news there is that today's reading is still above the one seen last July

 

Nov 30, 5:10 PM

fib1618: problem though is that with the CO MCO already taking out this same July level, we should expect the Composite MCO to match this same break of support

 

Nov 30, 5:12 PM

fib1618: another thing we have directly in front of us is that the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is now just 36 data points away from moving down and through its zero line as soon as Wednesday, and with this indicator failing to move back above the +500 level, it's a good bet that we'll see some sort of "crash like" event over the next few sessions

 

Nov 30, 5:13 PM

fib1618: important support for this MCSUM is at the lows of early October, and if taken out, this would destroy any kind of momentum rally that we were expecting into mid December

 

Nov 30, 5:13 PM

fib1618: so it's up to the bulls to make a stand, here and now, or we're likely going into a multi month correctional, and maybe, bearish sequence going into the 1st quarter of 2022

 

Nov 30, 5:14 PM

fib1618: downside price objective for the NYA would be around the 14,800 level

 

********

Let's look for this Elliott 3rd wave down price structure to continue into Friday.

 

Fib

 

 

 

[xe2dy]

Thank you Fib for sharing.