8 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system, the day next week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Wednesday December 8th.  

 

Last week the Monday the 29th risk window tagged the high for the week.  I'm not sure what to make of the Friday risk window, since the low was on Wednesday, a higher low signifying a trend change?  If Monday the 6th is up from the start with a higher high, maybe so, if not then it was just a dud signal.

 

 

Is it just me, or did the re-nominated FED Head phoenix from a dove to a hawk this past week?  I guess now that the guy doesn't have to  worry about losing his job, he can toughen up his talk a tad.  The big test will be in about two weeks after the is-Omicron-worse-or-not verdict, will he walk the talk?   If so, the nice rounded top pattern in the two year shown below should kick in and it should just tank.  All I want for Christmas is to know if Jerome's yule dinner will be fricasseed treasury notes or smoked crow?

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

As an ex-Texan, I'm always interested in crude.  The question at hand today is if the sell off since the beginning of November is the new trend or just a pause in the march north waiting on the new covid variant verdict that I noted above.  The three plots below show top to bottom, the rig count (supply), West Texas Intermediate Crude (the price) and at the bottom the US driving miles (demand).  My crude analysis (pun intended) of these three plots is that demand has returned, supply is being limited, so price should go up until that supply catches up if the new bug's a dud.  If the new bug is bad, the demand should slide justifying the crude retreat.  So much hinges on something only a 1000 angstroms wide.  Size really doesn't matter, but don't tell that to folks in Texas where everything is bigger.

  

 

Regards,

Douglas

[LMF]

Its still a big cup formation going back to the high late 2018. This should finally be the right shoulder now from the highs at 85. Even better looking if it takes out the august lows by a little bit. Its an inventory gathering process if theyre going to run it up later on.

[12SPX]

I'm curious you said ex Texan where are you now why did you leave??

[Douglas]

12SPX, I wasn't born in Texas.  I just got there as quick as I could after I graduated from college.  During my international work travels, I met and married an English woman. I dragged her back to Houston until I retired at which point she wanted to go "home" to be near friends and family, so we retired to a little town on the south coast of England called Lyme Regis.  You may have seen my new home on the silver screen since it featured as the backdrop for the Meryl Streep movie, A French Lieutenant's Woman and the recent Kate Winslet movie Ammonite. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[12SPX]

That's cool sounds very nice!!! 

[slupert]

What time is Dinner?

Edited by slupert, 07 December 2021 - 09:39 AM.

[Douglas]

Slupert, dinner is on the table and they're serving well roasted bear meat with a side of fried shorts.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

[12SPX]

Or the smart money is just building shorts......