7 replies to this topic

[csw2002]

In the old days, when FFs are overwhelmingly long (after a sharp decline) or short (after a substantial advance) in the daily poll, indices tend to turn around. Participation in the poll isn't what it used to be. Still, we are looking at vast majority of FFs being either fully long or partially long. Would it mark a turn? I haven't dredged up polling data over the recent years. Can Mark or others who are more active comment on the efficacy of the daily poll nowadays, please?

[csw2002]

To stimulate some intellectual debate (as I see very little technical analysis on this site nowadays), Here are some of mine - in the hope of drawing out much needed discussion.

 

(1) My sectors correlations are now in the buy zone. This indicator can increase even further before equity indices bottom. Typically, in run of the mill pullbacks, most of the times equity indices have bottomed around here. Unless this is turning out to be like feb to mar 2020, or Oct to Dec 2018, a temporary bottom shouldn't be far.

 

(2) GEX is also in a strong buy position. Again, in a run of the mill pullback, bottom ought to be close, based on historical data

 

(3) Based on dark pool institutional buying % data, we are seeing institutional accumulation over the past few days.

 

(4) Taking a page from what I learned from Mark, here is the fund flow ratio for SH. We are not really seeing enough hedging in SH to call the move so far sufficient for a lasting bottom.

 

(5) However, UVXY fund flow appears to suggest VIX's top is probably not far off. However, for most of the large moves in VIX (going north of 30), we tend to see a lower high in VIX (accompanied by either lower low or higher low in SPX) with such negative UVXY fund flows. 

 

(6) My own version of breadth indicators are now extremely oversold but closed well off the low on Friday.

 

I am of the view that equity indices are due a sustainable bounce soon. However, given the lack of hedging via SH and lack of deleveraging by active fund managers (whose median allocation is still at 100% long), I do believe that it is very likely we will see another leg lower. I think probability favours Santa rally coming, maybe late but not missing.

[Waver]

Unless this is turning out to be like feb to mar 2020, or Oct to Dec 2018, a temporary bottom shouldn't be far.

I am in total alignment with this statement.

I do not use as many indicators, mainly concentrate on breadth indicators.

We are close to a real good bottom or a lot to have the bottom fall out in a crash like scenario.

[andr99]

most fearless forecasters are long.....so am I

[Darris]

TQQQ outstanding shares on the move to the upside as well. Largest single day add on Friday.

[Rich C]

I'm partially long.  My latest thoughts are in my weekly blog, link below.  I hold on to Mike Wilson's "mid cycle adjustment" thesis, maybe for a longer time than Mike.

 

I need to generate some income, so I hold some low PE stocks with decent dividends.  When times are good, I'll buy some growth stocks, I've been in AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, AMD, NVDA, but not currently.

[da_cheif]

Unless this is turning out to be like feb to mar 2020, or Oct to Dec 2018, a temporary bottom shouldn't be far.

I am in total alignment with this statement.

I do not use as many indicators, mainly concentrate on breadth indicators.

We are close to a real good bottom or a lot to have the bottom fall out in a crash like scenario.

not as close anymore     sp up 62 handles as i speak.......watching the sky and not missing these things  is allways the name of the game

[Waver]

Unless this is turning out to be like feb to mar 2020, or Oct to Dec 2018, a temporary bottom shouldn't be far.

I am in total alignment with this statement.

I do not use as many indicators, mainly concentrate on breadth indicators.

We are close to a real good bottom or a lot to have the bottom fall out in a crash like scenario.

not as close anymore     sp up 62 handles as i speak.......watching the sky and not missing these things  is allways the name of the game

Bottom didnt fall out
Had a huge day today
And wasnt even all that aggressive