24 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

To: skinowski who wrote (14910) 2/3/2013 7:07:22 PM From: da_cheif™ 11 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 39061   > I don't think that is possible to know.<......any GOOD ewaver with credentials to prove it would know that the epicenter of primary wave 3 up is under way....whats coming will extricate the likes of robert prechter from the corner they spent the last quarter century getting into.......then they will spend a lot of time explaining why they didnt see it coming instead of enjoying it if indeed they knew what they were doing......as the global rush to free enterprise and democracy unfolds in all its glory producing an inflationary world wide economic explosion of unparalleled proportions the stock market is in the early stages of discounting this once in a lifetime event.....few will make a dime in as much as they will get bubble mania paralysis.......eventually eurphoria will be indemic as speculation then runs rampant......volume will explode as prices accelarate.....500 to 1000 point up days will be the norm......it's the dows divisor which is now a multiplier that will be the driving force dont you know.....

 

[brucekeller]

I'm just keeping my popcorn to see how the Fed going hawkish might interact with the inflationary worldwide explosion since QE is a major driving force even in the demand aspect due to cheap money. 

[da_cheif]

I'm just keeping my popcorn to see how the Fed going hawkish might interact with the inflationary worldwide explosion since QE is a major driving force even in the demand aspect due to cheap money. 

the fed went very hawkish in 1980......rates went to 20%  and analysts were dumfounded when the dow exploded up with rates.....the story coming out now is that the markets will collapse when rates are moved higher..what everyon knows is worthless.....rising rates are a reflection of economic expansion  .....watch the sky and crash them bondz

Edited by da_cheif, 11 December 2021 - 07:51 AM.

[Douglas]

Don, the 1982 stock market launched AFTER the FED began lowering rates.   The market did rise for a time when Volker started raising rates, but eventually it succumbed to the high cost of money as the US fell into two back to back recessions.  Those recessions broke the back of the runaway inflation.  It was only after Volker started lowering rates in 1982 that folks rushed back into the stock market.  That's what kicked off the bull market then and what is powering it today. 

 

Unlike 1982, today the Treasury prints the debt and the FED buys it, all of it, if needed to hold rates down.  There are no market forces at work due to the dollar's reserve status.  The US has the lowest real interest rates in its multi-hundred year history.  To see what happens if you try to print without having a reserve currency, take a look at Turkey.  Erdogan is trying to print his way into prosperity and is killing his non-reserve currency and causing massive inflation.  

 

The US stock market is running on luck, the good luck of having a reserve currency, but that luxury can be snatched away as it was for the Dutch and later the British.  The American largesse will only be tolerated for just so long.  Volker seemed to understand that, Powell doesn't appear to have a clue.  

 

The plot of the FED funds rate below is from macrotrends.net .

  

 

Inflation is once again on a tear.  Powell needs to channel Volker to get it under control.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[da_cheif]

Don, the 1982 stock market launched AFTER the FED began lowering rates.   The market did rise for a time when Volker started raising rates, but eventually it succumbed to the high cost of money as the US fell into two back to back recessions.  Those recessions broke the back of the runaway inflation.  It was only after Volker started lowering rates in 1982 that folks rushed back into the stock market.  That's what kicked off the bull market then and what is powering it today. 

 

Unlike 1982, today the Treasury prints the debt and the FED buys it, all of it, if needed to hold rates down.  There are no market forces at work due to the dollar's reserve status.  The US has the lowest real interest rates in its multi-hundred year history.  To see what happens if you try to print without having a reserve currency, take a look at Turkey.  Erdogan is trying to print his way into prosperity and is killing his non-reserve currency and causing massive inflation.  

 

The US stock market is running on luck, the good luck of having a reserve currency, but that luxury can be snatched away as it was for the Dutch and later the British.  The American largesse will only be tolerated for just so long.  Volker seemed to understand that, Powell doesn't appear to have a clue.  

 

The plot of the FED funds rate below is from macrotrends.net .

  

 

Inflation is once again on a tear.  Powell needs to channel Volker to get it under control.

 

 

Regards, f

Douglas

LUCK?????   LMAZOFF 

 

675 ono   luck.....hahaha  looking backward is easy anybody can do it.........looking forward is harder for some

 

https://www.siliconi...?msgid=33615802
 

Edited by da_cheif, 11 December 2021 - 07:02 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

675 ono   luck.....hahaha  looking backward is easy anybody can do it.

 

LOL! You just looked back to 675.

 

Was that 675 B.C.?

[pdx5]

LUCK?????   LMAZOFF 

 

675 ono   luck.....hahaha  looking backward is easy anybody can do it.........looking forward is harder for some

 

https://www.siliconi...?msgid=33615802
 

 

675 to be re-visited before the posters here kick the bucket
 

[kinga200]

Times are different Chef.
Watch the ground.

[kinga200]

Times are different Chef.
Watch the ground.

[LMF]

I guess we can count the TD until the NDX trades at the 200 day MA for more than 60 seconds. It could be a while.