24 replies to this topic

[bigtrader]

 

Don, the 1982 stock market launched AFTER the FED began lowering rates.   The market did rise for a time when Volker started raising rates, but eventually it succumbed to the high cost of money as the US fell into two back to back recessions.  Those recessions broke the back of the runaway inflation.  It was only after Volker started lowering rates in 1982 that folks rushed back into the stock market.  That's what kicked off the bull market then and what is powering it today. 

 

Unlike 1982, today the Treasury prints the debt and the FED buys it, all of it, if needed to hold rates down.  There are no market forces at work due to the dollar's reserve status.  The US has the lowest real interest rates in its multi-hundred year history.  To see what happens if you try to print without having a reserve currency, take a look at Turkey.  Erdogan is trying to print his way into prosperity and is killing his non-reserve currency and causing massive inflation.  

 

The US stock market is running on luck, the good luck of having a reserve currency, but that luxury can be snatched away as it was for the Dutch and later the British.  The American largesse will only be tolerated for just so long.  Volker seemed to understand that, Powell doesn't appear to have a clue.  

 

The plot of the FED funds rate below is from macrotrends.net .

  

 

Inflation is once again on a tear.  Powell needs to channel Volker to get it under control.

 

 

Regards, f

Douglas

LUCK?????   LMAZOFF 

 

675 ono   luck.....hahaha  looking backward is easy anybody can do it.........looking forward is harder for some

 

https://www.siliconi...?msgid=33615802
 

 

Must be hard to look forward as you're looking back all the time

[da_cheif]

 

LUCK?????   LMAZOFF 

 

675 ono   luck.....hahaha  looking backward is easy anybody can do it.........looking forward is harder for some

 

https://www.siliconi...?msgid=33615802
 

 

675 to be re-visited before the posters here kick the bucket
 

 

in ur dreams     u mus be a canadian

[da_cheif]

 

 

Don, the 1982 stock market launched AFTER the FED began lowering rates.   The market did rise for a time when Volker started raising rates, but eventually it succumbed to the high cost of money as the US fell into two back to back recessions.  Those recessions broke the back of the runaway inflation.  It was only after Volker started lowering rates in 1982 that folks rushed back into the stock market.  That's what kicked off the bull market then and what is powering it today. 

 

Unlike 1982, today the Treasury prints the debt and the FED buys it, all of it, if needed to hold rates down.  There are no market forces at work due to the dollar's reserve status.  The US has the lowest real interest rates in its multi-hundred year history.  To see what happens if you try to print without having a reserve currency, take a look at Turkey.  Erdogan is trying to print his way into prosperity and is killing his non-reserve currency and causing massive inflation.  

 

The US stock market is running on luck, the good luck of having a reserve currency, but that luxury can be snatched away as it was for the Dutch and later the British.  The American largesse will only be tolerated for just so long.  Volker seemed to understand that, Powell doesn't appear to have a clue.  

 

The plot of the FED funds rate below is from macrotrends.net .

  

 

Inflation is once again on a tear.  Powell needs to channel Volker to get it under control.

 

 

Regards, f

Douglas

LUCK?????   LMAZOFF 

 

675 ono   luck.....hahaha  looking backward is easy anybody can do it.........looking forward is harder for some

 

https://www.siliconi...?msgid=33615802
 

 

Must be hard to look forward as you're looking back all the time

 

sure its hard looking forward   .....but  being bearish is easy..anybody can do it......most bears have thrown in the towel.......fearless forcaster forum is proof of that .....the bull market has decimated the population here

[bigtrader]

Putting your ego aside it's proven being bullish is so easy a cave man can do it. Being a good trader is another story. all your looking back is pointless, like writing with a broken pencil. Pointless but laughable.   

[brucekeller]

Putting your ego aside it's proven being bullish is so easy a cave man can do it. Being a good trader is another story. all your looking back is pointless, like writing with a broken pencil. Pointless but laughable.   

 

And it depends on where you are putting your money exactly. I heard Cheif has been pimping MVIS for years and years, and if you had bought it at the 2009 bottom, you'd be 20% or so underwater still although it finally spiked after almost over a decade... if you bought in 2000... still 90%+ down.  Wonder how many shares Cheif might still have from the top of the 2000 bubble? :-P

[LMF]

TQQQ is no joke when it gets down to 20 bucks from time to time. One of my share piles was down at 32. Been as high as 180 something a while back.

[Rogerdodger]

Does being a perma-bull  even qualify to be called "TRADING"?

Edited by Rogerdodger, 12 December 2021 - 03:18 PM.

[bigtrader]

Does being a perma-bull  even qualify to be called "TRADING"?

 I'd say hedging would qualify

[bigtrader]

 

Putting your ego aside it's proven being bullish is so easy a cave man can do it. Being a good trader is another story. all your looking back is pointless, like writing with a broken pencil. Pointless but laughable.   

 

And it depends on where you are putting your money exactly. I heard Cheif has been pimping MVIS for years and years, and if you had bought it at the 2009 bottom, you'd be 20% or so underwater still although it finally spiked after almost over a decade... if you bought in 2000... still 90%+ down.  Wonder how many shares Cheif might still have from the top of the 2000 bubble? :-P

 

We all have a skeleton or 2, I have no ego and will admit it.

[da_cheif]

675 ono     whiners