According to my risk window system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday the 13th and the afternoon of Thursday the 16th through the morning of Friday the 17th. The end of the week signal is a bit muddled. That's my excuse for smearing it across the top of Thursday into the morning of Friday, and even that bit of hocus pocus is more prestidigitation than science. Strange that FED Wednesday didn't make the list. Don't know if that was just bad judgement on my part or the likelihood that their plans are now baked in the King Cake.
Last Wednesday's risk window tagged a top of some sort that barely lasted a day and a half, so it has be labelled a dud signal, but in its defence, last week made no sense. Inflation was reported at 40year highs but the price of a 2 year note barely fell. Who or rather what organization do you suppose was buying this debt holding these rates at ridiculous historic lows, somewhere between a negative 5 and negative 7% real yield depending on whose inflation figures you believe? Given the verdict came in on Omicron as very catchy but not as deadly, I would have thought the tapering could proceed, but I guess the FED was feeling all Christmassy and decided to throw the market dogs yet another bone. Next week's FED conflab on the 15th could be interesting if at least one reporter with a functioning brain is permitted to question their flimsy excuses for inaction.
There's a rather amazing island gap in the DJIA that is crying out to be filled. It will be interesting to see whether new highs or this gap is dealt with first.
Regards,
Douglas
