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Inflation at 40-year high. So why are markets so calm?


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:46 AM

BECAUSE the SANTA rally is always there for WALL ST to rake in their bonuses & perks, and for money managers to end with 

inflated gains etc. Live with it, trade with it if you want or stand aside. Markets could fall 5 to 10% by end of 2021 or in January 2022. 

 

 

Holidays are here, trading will be reduced significantly as we rest & enjoy these last few days of 2021. 
 

Holding FEB SPY PUTS, unhedged, will add more on ATHs and hedge later or during this week. 

 

Link to article:
 

In other words, we're talking 1980s territory. And the trouble is, back then inflation was still high but falling; we were just getting the 1970s inflation out of the system. This time, inflation is – or certainly has been – low but rising.

The question now is: are central bankers going to be quicker to react this time round, and what does it mean for markets?

We've already seen some market reaction to rising inflation

If you'd been told this time last year that inflation would hit a near-40-year high in the US (and in lots of other places) by the end of 2021, you might imagine a number of scenarios.

https://moneyweek.co...on-40-year-high

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:47 AM

Have a great weekend! Novembers sell-off built a textbook bull flag in #ES_F, and this week broke it out with force. Now, bulls must continue to prevent a dangerous fake breakout Plan Next Week: As long as 4660 holds, 4765, 4800 targets direct. 4800= sell zone. Detail below $SPX


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:48 AM

He is mainly bullish -- but the markers have been mainly bullish, and he does call most of the declines

 

Update: Good open for #ES_F. 4720 then 4765 remain first targets. Ideally can base out at 4720 to recharge, and go from there 
 
 
 
Update: #ES_F Coming into 4720 1st target right now in overnight session already and this has been target for most of last week. Would like to see some basing there before we shoot for the breakout to ATHs

Edited by dTraderB, 13 December 2021 - 07:49 AM.


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:50 AM

 
 
 
 
 
 
tDDojSZv_bigger.jpg
 
New top bull: Oppenheimer’s Stoltzfus initiates 2022 S&P 500 price target at 5,330. “Our earnings projection of $230 for the S&P 500 calls for earnings growth in 2022 of around 12% and a P/E multiple of 23x.”


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:52 AM

Some 2022 S&P 500 targets: 5,300: BMO
5,200: Yardeni
' 5,100-5,300: Wells Fargo
5,100: BNP, Goldman
5,050: JPM, RBC
5,000: DWS, Jefferies, CS
4,850: UBS
4,800: Barclays
4,600: BofA
4,400: Morgan Stanley


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:53 AM

Mostly right

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    57.6%
  •  
    DOWN
    42.4%
2,278 votes·Final results


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:55 AM

Delta Market Indicator still 100% long.


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:56 AM

NYSE Breadth divergence expanding, not narrowing.


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 07:57 AM

Although I hate to add fuel to the bearish fire, I'm old-school enough to be bothered by this shortfall of 7411 net advances.


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 13 December 2021 - 08:01 AM

New article :

 

https://www.mcoscill...to_raise_rates/