154 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

actually dropped by a point on Friday

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

and crude bounced a few cents. Will be SHORTING crude but only above 75

 

First Squawk

 

@FirstSquawk

·

42m

 

OPEC KEEPS FULL-YEAR 2022, 2021 WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS UNCHANGED - MONTHLY REPORT OPEC RAISES Q1 2022 WORLD OIL DEMAND FORECAST BY 1.11 MILLION BPD TO 99.13 MLN BPD OPEC SAYS EXPECTS OMICRON VARIANT IMPACT ON DEMAND TO BE MILD AND SHORT LIVED

[redfoliage2]

BECAUSE the SANTA rally is always there for WALL ST to rake in their bonuses & perks, and for money managers to end with 

inflated gains etc. Live with it, trade with it if you want or stand aside. Markets could fall 5 to 10% by end of 2021 or in January 2022. 

 

 

Holidays are here, trading will be reduced significantly as we rest & enjoy these last few days of 2021. 
 

Holding FEB SPY PUTS, unhedged, will add more on ATHs and hedge later or during this week. 

 

Link to article:
 

In other words, we're talking 1980s territory. And the trouble is, back then inflation was still high but falling; we were just getting the 1970s inflation out of the system. This time, inflation is – or certainly has been – low but rising.

The question now is: are central bankers going to be quicker to react this time round, and what does it mean for markets?

We've already seen some market reaction to rising inflation

If you'd been told this time last year that inflation would hit a near-40-year high in the US (and in lots of other places) by the end of 2021, you might imagine a number of scenarios.

https://moneyweek.co...on-40-year-high

 

 

But then why in some years the market went down in December, such as in the year 2016, also in 2018?  Now let's see what the Fed will do for this December .....................

Edited by redfoliage2, 13 December 2021 - 08:30 AM.

[dTraderB]

Panic Selling To Panic Buying In One Week

Did anything fundamentally change to support the panic buying? No. If you paid attention to the headlines, the Federal Reserve has become considerably more “hawkish” in the stance. The acceleration of tapering liquidity and hiking interest rates will prove unkind to investors chasing highly overvalued securities.

This week’s rally continues to follow the seasonality chart we discussed last week. Such also suggests that we will see some additional “sloppy” action next week heading into options expiration next Friday. However, that weakness should provide the base for the year-end rally to commence from.

After previously raising cash in November, as discussed in the portfolio update below, we used the recent panic selling to increase our exposure to equities. We will look for additional weaknesses next week to do the same.

On a longer-term basis, we remain cautious due to valuations, earnings expectations, and weaker economic growth. However, there are reasons to be more optimistic from a trading perspective in the near term.

 

https://realinvestme...ing-in-one-week

[redfoliage2]

 

BECAUSE the SANTA rally is always there for WALL ST to rake in their bonuses & perks, and for money managers to end with 

inflated gains etc. Live with it, trade with it if you want or stand aside. Markets could fall 5 to 10% by end of 2021 or in January 2022. 

 

 

Holidays are here, trading will be reduced significantly as we rest & enjoy these last few days of 2021. 
 

Holding FEB SPY PUTS, unhedged, will add more on ATHs and hedge later or during this week. 

 

Link to article:
 

In other words, we're talking 1980s territory. And the trouble is, back then inflation was still high but falling; we were just getting the 1970s inflation out of the system. This time, inflation is – or certainly has been – low but rising.

The question now is: are central bankers going to be quicker to react this time round, and what does it mean for markets?

We've already seen some market reaction to rising inflation

If you'd been told this time last year that inflation would hit a near-40-year high in the US (and in lots of other places) by the end of 2021, you might imagine a number of scenarios.

https://moneyweek.co...on-40-year-high

 

 

But then why in some years the market went down in December, such as in the year 2016, also in 2018?  Now let's see what the Fed will do for this December .....................

 

So I see this December is more likely to be determined by the Fed than anything else .......................

[12SPX]

Slow start to the week but I wasn't in a rush anyhow.  As I left early Friday I couldn't report about my Dec 4695 short trade and not that important but was taken out for a 1 point profit as the market powered ahead in the final hour.  Still have my March short that started at 4695 and now have an average sell on that of 4708 now as we started higher yesterday.  Will just add to it I think today unless we sell off enough today.  Market is not in a healthy state at all!! I can't believe the extreme bullishness even in the Dec calls, insane actually lol!!  Gonna be an interesting finish to this expiration cycle!! 

[dTraderB]

ES HEDGE LONG  4603.25

[redfoliage2]

Slow start to the week but I wasn't in a rush anyhow.  As I left early Friday I couldn't report about my Dec 4695 short trade and not that important but was taken out for a 1 point profit as the market powered ahead in the final hour.  Still have my March short that started at 4695 and now have an average sell on that of 4708 now as we started higher yesterday.  Will just add to it I think today unless we sell off enough today.  Market is not in a healthy state at all!! I can't believe the extreme bullishness even in the Dec calls, insane actually lol!!  Gonna be an interesting finish to this expiration cycle!! 

So it looks that you go short by selling ES calls,  do you buy puts at all when shorting?  just curious...................

Edited by redfoliage2, 13 December 2021 - 09:36 AM.

[12SPX]

Profit stop on my March short at 4690 might as well, will sell higher!! 

[dTraderB]

2nd hedge 4682

first one 4703.25

 

ES HEDGE LONG  4603.25