70 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Yes, it is a merry Season, a goose-the-market time of the year, and a celebration of the FED tapering/raising rates etc, but I am calling for at least a 5% decline starting anytime from December 16th to January 31st. More likely, the SPX decline will be more than 15% from 4725, and most likely above 20%. 

The FED is way behind the curve, catching up is no longer the objective because it is almost impossible, so the best the FED can do now is limit the damage and try to prevent a withering bout of STAGFLATION. 

 

More during the coming days & weeks. 

[dTraderB]

https://seekingalpha...global-scarcity

[dTraderB]

The Market Has Already Protected You From Inflation With 48% Gains Over 2 Years, Take Profits Now

Dec. 16, 2021 12:26 AM ETVanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)ITW, KO, MCD, NOBL, SCHD, SPY, VCIT, VFFSX, VFIAX, VFINX, VICBX, VICSX, VITSX, VSMPX, VSTSX, VTI, VTSAX, VTSMX, WMT22 Comments12 Likes

Summary

• Those who fear that going to cash will cause them to lose too much to inflation are ignoring that the gains of the past 2 years are a huge windfall.
• Only greed can justify not taking some profits and saving them for the inevitable day when prices once again bear a reasonable relationship to earnings.
• Dividend stocks are not any safer than the market as a whole as demonstrated by looking closely at the prices and P/E ratios of several popular Dividend Aristocrats.
• Good valuation made dividend stocks safe in 2008, but even dividend stocks now are so overvalued that reversion just to January 2020's P/Es will cause serious losses
  https://seekingalpha...ake-profits-now

[dTraderB]

"The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal and the realized volatility (HV20) sell signal remain in effect. The S&P’s 20-day historical volatility is now up to 19%, which is quite high. It is very unusual to see HV20 increasing while SPX is making new all-time highs. But the divergences between market internals and the price of SPX itself are perhaps as wide (and negative) as they have ever been, so things such as that are becoming more commonplace.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals. The standard ratio is now at its highest level for the year (see the thin horizontal red line on the accompanying chart). That makes it oversold."

https://www.marketwa...d=mw_latestnews

[dTraderB]

CRASH started today? 

 

No, still more rallies in 2021. 

[pdx5]

 

The Market Has Already Protected You From Inflation With 48% Gains Over 2 Years, Take Profits Now

Dec. 16, 2021 12:26 AM ETVanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)ITW, KO, MCD, NOBL, SCHD, SPY, VCIT, VFFSX, VFIAX, VFINX, VICBX, VICSX, VITSX, VSMPX, VSTSX, VTI, VTSAX, VTSMX, WMT22 Comments12 Likes

Summary

• Those who fear that going to cash will cause them to lose too much to inflation are ignoring that the gains of the past 2 years are a huge windfall.
• Only greed can justify not taking some profits and saving them for the inevitable day when prices once again bear a reasonable relationship to earnings.
• Dividend stocks are not any safer than the market as a whole as demonstrated by looking closely at the prices and P/E ratios of several popular Dividend Aristocrats.
• Good valuation made dividend stocks safe in 2008, but even dividend stocks now are so overvalued that reversion just to January 2020's P/Es will cause serious losses
  https://seekingalpha...ake-profits-now

 

My thinking parallels yours. I got very lucky finding myself 50% flat, 50% bonds in March 2020. 

Bonds went down in March-April 2020 but not nearly as much as stocks. I switch all my money into stock index funds.

I think my profits are above 50% in just last 1.5 years. 60% of those are in tax deferred accounts.

But that 40% in taxable accounts is killing me in income taxes for 2021.

So the inflation is the least of my worry right now. Waiting for next 15-20% crash to jump back in.

Edited by pdx5, 16 December 2021 - 02:03 PM.

[dTraderB]

DID NOT EXPECT CRASH TO START TODAY... 

CAN THE DAILY CANDLE TODAY ENGULF YESTERDAY'S ??

 

 

OR DAILY RANGE TODAY IN ES AND NQ WILL BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY/

[dTraderB]

It is quite possible for new ATHs before next big move down and I will trade it  ... BUT all my trading experience during the past 4 decades tells me this market is on fumes and cannot go much higher now, maybe SPX 4800 but a big drop is about to happen. 

 

 

 

The Market Has Already Protected You From Inflation With 48% Gains Over 2 Years, Take Profits Now

Dec. 16, 2021 12:26 AM ETVanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)ITW, KO, MCD, NOBL, SCHD, SPY, VCIT, VFFSX, VFIAX, VFINX, VICBX, VICSX, VITSX, VSMPX, VSTSX, VTI, VTSAX, VTSMX, WMT22 Comments12 Likes

Summary

• Those who fear that going to cash will cause them to lose too much to inflation are ignoring that the gains of the past 2 years are a huge windfall.
• Only greed can justify not taking some profits and saving them for the inevitable day when prices once again bear a reasonable relationship to earnings.
• Dividend stocks are not any safer than the market as a whole as demonstrated by looking closely at the prices and P/E ratios of several popular Dividend Aristocrats.
• Good valuation made dividend stocks safe in 2008, but even dividend stocks now are so overvalued that reversion just to January 2020's P/Es will cause serious losses
  https://seekingalpha...ake-profits-now

 

My thinking parallels yours. I got very lucky finding myself 50% flat, 50% bonds in March 2020. 

Bonds went down in March-April 2020 but not nearly as much as stocks. I switch all my money into stock index funds.

I think my profits are above 50% in just last 1.5 years. 60% of those are in tax deferred accounts.

But that 40% in taxable accounts is killing me in income taxes for 2021.

So the inflation is the least of my worry right now. Waiting for next 15-20% crash to jump back in.

 

[da_cheif]

 

The Market Has Already Protected You From Inflation With 48% Gains Over 2 Years, Take Profits Now

Dec. 16, 2021 12:26 AM ETVanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)ITW, KO, MCD, NOBL, SCHD, SPY, VCIT, VFFSX, VFIAX, VFINX, VICBX, VICSX, VITSX, VSMPX, VSTSX, VTI, VTSAX, VTSMX, WMT22 Comments12 Likes

Summary

• Those who fear that going to cash will cause them to lose too much to inflation are ignoring that the gains of the past 2 years are a huge windfall.
• Only greed can justify not taking some profits and saving them for the inevitable day when prices once again bear a reasonable relationship to earnings.
• Dividend stocks are not any safer than the market as a whole as demonstrated by looking closely at the prices and P/E ratios of several popular Dividend Aristocrats.
• Good valuation made dividend stocks safe in 2008, but even dividend stocks now are so overvalued that reversion just to January 2020's P/Es will cause serious losses
  https://seekingalpha...ake-profits-now

 

>gains of the past 2 years<?    LOLOL

[redfoliage2]

Expect new highs in the first quarter of 2022 as the pandemic starts dying out....................

https://www.traders-...-pandemic-ends/

 

Also expect a new wave of corporate buy-backs before the first rate hike ...............

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 December 2021 - 10:11 AM.