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My Official "CRASH" POST


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#11 12SPX

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 10:19 AM

Now there's a bold prediction on a big down two days good for you!! 



#12 Chilidawgz

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Posted 17 December 2021 - 10:52 PM

"It is quite possible for new ATHs before next big move down and I will trade it  ... BUT all my trading experience during the past 4 decades tells me this market is on fumes and cannot go much higher now, maybe SPX 4800 but a big drop is about to happen."

 

That's what I am looking to also. The FED put is done. If Powell lowers rates/continues asset buying, inflation soars. If he raises rates, corporations and governments will be unable to service their debt obligations. He is painted into a corner with no options.


Edited by Chilidawgz, 17 December 2021 - 10:55 PM.

Anything can happen...what's happening now?
No one can forecast the future. No one.
 
All stocks (ETF's) are BAD...unless they go up - William O'Neil
When The Time Comes To Buy or Sell, You Won't Want To - Walter Deemer
 
 

#13 dTraderB

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Posted 18 December 2021 - 09:51 AM

And, note I posted this when the markets were still zooming on the day after the FED meeting, BEFORE markets tanked later that day!
FED has botched it badly.... expect more attempts to rally by BIG MONEY and LATE NEWBIES but market will fall hard in 2022

 

Now there's a bold prediction on a big down two days good for you!! 



#14 dTraderB

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Posted 18 December 2021 - 09:55 AM

FED timidly tried to have it both ways and were afraid to administer the bitter medicine. Here is a commentary that is mainly correct, not that I agree all their views:


"To preserve its three-decade track record for delivering price stability, the FOMC will soon have to restore the balance between its mandated goals. Perhaps, as the FOMC projections imply, inflation will recede on its own despite continued policy accommodation. More likely, in our view, lingering high inflation will soon test the FOMC’s resolve, prompting further upward revisions of inflation and policy rate projections for 2022 and beyond. Perhaps we also will see a wider dispersion of projections that foreshadows more aggressive policies.

Ultimately, we hope that the FOMC will raise its policy rate soon enough—and boost its projected rates far enough—to restore price stability without serious economic and financial disruptions. The more they hesitate, the more abrupt and disruptive the eventual change in policy likely will be, and the greater the threat to the expansion."

 

https://www.moneyand...ent-targeting-1

 

"It is quite possible for new ATHs before next big move down and I will trade it  ... BUT all my trading experience during the past 4 decades tells me this market is on fumes and cannot go much higher now, maybe SPX 4800 but a big drop is about to happen."

 

That's what I am looking to also. The FED put is done. If Powell lowers rates/continues asset buying, inflation soars. If he raises rates, corporations and governments will be unable to service their debt obligations. He is painted into a corner with no options.



#15 blackcloud

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Posted 18 December 2021 - 07:02 PM

More likely, in our view, lingering high inflation will soon test the FOMC’s resolve, prompting further upward revisions of inflation and policy rate projections for 2022 and beyond.

 

They don't have to do that any longer, they are changing the way they measure CPI, LoL!!  Quoting Shakespeare, [bleeeep] by any other name is still [bleeeep], or something like that.



#16 dTraderB

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Posted 19 December 2021 - 07:45 PM

As if there are not enough worries for the markets:

 

Manchin Pulls Support From Biden’s Social Policy Bill, Imperiling Its Passage

The West Virginia senator’s comments dealt a potentially fatal blow to the centerpiece of the president’s domestic agenda, and drew a broadside from the White House.
https://www.nytimes....ack-better.html



#17 dTraderB

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Posted 19 December 2021 - 07:48 PM

The FED has to do that; Biden cannot but Manchin - as is the case with most - has a price that can convince him to support .... 

 

The Path Ahead for Biden: Overcome Manchin’s Inflation Fears

A key Democrat’s decision to pull support from the president’s sprawling climate and social agenda is rooted in the scope of the bill.

https://www.nytimes....-ambitions.html

As if there are not enough worries for the markets:

 

Manchin Pulls Support From Biden’s Social Policy Bill, Imperiling Its Passage

The West Virginia senator’s comments dealt a potentially fatal blow to the centerpiece of the president’s domestic agenda, and drew a broadside from the White House.
https://www.nytimes....ack-better.html



#18 dTraderB

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Posted 19 December 2021 - 07:53 PM

But now it seems as if INFLATION pales in comparison with the OMICRON threat to health, the economy, and the rising optimism of previous few months. Still, I expect the worst of the pandemic has been seen and these new variants will become less & less harmful"

ST markets down, IT up

 

"But with Omicron, being fully vaccinated does not appear to provide the same level of protection, in terms of infection and transmission. While the vaccinated still appear likely to avoid serious illness, there remains a risk they will experience symptoms. They may also pass the virus to someone else.

With the ability to spread widely and quickly, Omicron is poised to become the dominant variant. It’s unclear how severe or mild Omicron is for someone who has not been vaccinated and thus has no coronavirus immunity. In the United States data suggest that around 61 percent of Americans of all ages are fully vaccinated. There are millions of Americans who are not vaccinated."

https://www.nytimes....akthroughs.html



#19 dTraderB

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Posted 19 December 2021 - 09:36 PM

This was supposed to be the start of my R&R but can't stop trading NQ!

 

Leaving one NQ short @ 15692.5

---

 

Holding 30 FEB SPY PUTS, closed a few on Friday

2 ES HEDGE LONG

Could not resist buying a few QQQ MARCH CALLS in LT Portfolio, accumulating on Friday as markets swooned:  11 MARCH QQQ CALLS

 

Flat CRUDE, NAT GAS, VXX and everything else

Will set alerts on CRUDE & VXX to open new positions if my levels are reached.

I Will be resting & relaxing, enjoying the holidays, with a few posts, during next 2 weeks, 

Check my OFFICIAL CRASH POST for updates:

https://www.traders-...ial-crash-post/

 



#20 12SPX

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Posted 20 December 2021 - 09:37 AM

Starting slow this morning, to much to read on here lol!!  Nonetheless have brought my average long down to 4590 and will sit there for a while and see how we do here.  This really is an overreaction but as I have said volatility is going to kick up and there is a huge possibility that we have seen the high for ahwile of which d has also affirmed.  I'm willing to bet that biden is going to announce the phizer and moderna pill being available which changes the game entirely!