2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system, next week is just one big cesspool of risk.  It has high readings for every day except Wednesday the 22nd.  Given my current luck, that means Wednesday must be the day to watch.

 

Last week the Monday risk window did catch a turn down which was only briefly interrupted by Powell trying to put the most dovish spin he could on slowly turning off the funny money tap.  The mid-day Thursday through Friday morning risk window appears to have caught a low, but I'm not so sure.  The high Thursday morning might turn out to be more important.  I'll hold out judgement on Friday's risk window until I see what happens on Monday the 20th.

 

 

I've been reading lots of notes on the Web suggesting using the current 2 year note rate as a set point for the FED funds rate.  That would be fine if the yield made any sense given the current 5 to 10% inflation rate depending on whose numbers you use.  Do you suppose some pseudo government agency is putting their fat fingers on the yield scale?   How can the 2 year note be used as a guide post when the FED keeps pulling the post out of the ground and moving it?  It's like Strawberry Fields where nothing is real and like that song, you have to be high on LSD to believe this is going to end well.    

 

Regards,

Douglas

[slupert]

According to my risk summation system, next week is just one big cesspool of risk.  It has high readings for every day except Wednesday the 22nd.  Given my current luck, that means Wednesday must be the day to watch.

 

Last week the Monday risk window did catch a turn down which was only briefly interrupted by Powell trying to put the most dovish spin he could on slowly turning off the funny money tap.  The mid-day Thursday through Friday morning risk window appears to have caught a low, but I'm not so sure.  The high Thursday morning might turn out to be more important.  I'll hold out judgement on Friday's risk window until I see what happens on Monday the 20th.

 

 

I've been reading lots of notes on the Web suggesting using the current 2 year note rate as a set point for the FED funds rate.  That would be fine if the yield made any sense given the current 5 to 10% inflation rate depending on whose numbers you use.  Do you suppose some pseudo government agency is putting their fat fingers on the yield scale?   How can the 2 year note be used as a guide post when the FED keeps pulling the post out of the ground and moving it?  It's like Strawberry Fields where nothing is real and like that song, you have to be high on LSD to believe this is going to end well.    

 

Regards,

Douglas

I postedt th other day about Abromowitz nailing it, the market is saying transitory and slow growth, we'll be lucky if we see one rate cut at all together.

[LMF]

I love watching Bramo and Ferro and tom keene on bloomberg.  It's excellent compared to the CNBC circus.  There's no way the Fed can have a tightening bias right now based on how the small caps look like they are on life support.  It's not all about inflation and zero on how the market actually looks.  This was the same look back at the end of 2018 when the Fed made the policy error hiking rates that December.  They vaporized the tightening bias in January, and then the rate cut in April.  TNA has no problem at all telegraphing the way it looks. Yesterday, today, and tomorrow.  Powell is like the airline pilot that can only over-focus on one thing, and the next thing the ground gets in the way.