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Low Volume, Seasonal Strength Ahead


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 18 December 2021 - 01:22 PM

"There was a bulge in downside volume on the NYSE Friday (probably traders closing their positions before taking the next 2 weeks off)."

Mike Burk

 

I have seen this movie before. Losing positions sold before year's end, for tax purposes.

But overall Stock price is held up on low volume going into the new year.

However, VIX rockets up as a warning.

Early in the new year, we could see selling of 2021 winners, thus delaying tax consequences until 2023.

Of course, TWT.

 

Mike Burk: .

Breadth has continued to deteriorate; however, the market is a bit oversold going into a seasonally modest strong period that lasts until the end of the year on the lowest volume of the year.
There was a bulge in downside volume on the NYSE Friday (probably traders closing their positions before taking the next 2 weeks off).

 

It seems like sentiment is low enough that sellers have possibly finished for now.

But some believe that sentiment is useless and have told me so. LOL!

(I think they likely demand an exact threshold number at specific levels rather than in relation to recent market context.)

 

Meaningless-sentiment.jpg

 

 

Vix-Tell.jpg

 

 

..


Edited by Rogerdodger, 18 December 2021 - 01:54 PM.


#2 pdx5

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Posted 20 December 2021 - 11:56 AM

Seems un-seasonal market behavior today with Santa arrival so close.

I did not check volume but it probably is high today as well.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#3 redfoliage2

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Posted 20 December 2021 - 12:22 PM

I see the Santa rally will come, but a little late as they are trying to create an entry point for them to position for 2022.  Many are out this week and when the cat's away the mice play .......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 20 December 2021 - 12:31 PM.


#4 redfoliage2

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Posted 20 December 2021 - 12:48 PM

I see the Santa rally will come, but a little late as they are trying to create an entry point for them to position for 2022.  Many are out this week and when the cat's away the mice play .......................

Today's gap will be filled soon ......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 20 December 2021 - 12:51 PM.


#5 brucekeller

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Posted 20 December 2021 - 12:53 PM

 

I see the Santa rally will come, but a little late as they are trying to create an entry point for them to position for 2022.  Many are out this week and when the cat's away the mice play .......................

Today's gap will be filled soon ......................

 

What, you think Manchin will flip or something? lol   I was thinking could be a buy the news with Biden's speech.  Wish I could find out what time it is. Whitehouse.gov didn't even have it. Dunno why I can't find the exact time. 



#6 redfoliage2

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Posted 20 December 2021 - 01:04 PM

 

 

I see the Santa rally will come, but a little late as they are trying to create an entry point for them to position for 2022.  Many are out this week and when the cat's away the mice play .......................

Today's gap will be filled soon ......................

 

What, you think Manchin will flip or something? lol   I was thinking could be a buy the news with Biden's speech.  Wish I could find out what time it is. Whitehouse.gov didn't even have it. Dunno why I can't find the exact time. 

 

It's going to be a win-win for both sides as the bill will pass one way or the other .....................



#7 12SPX

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Posted 20 December 2021 - 01:30 PM

No the bills dead for sure however biden could announce the phizer or moderna pill and that would pull out all the worries even though there really is nothing to worry about Omnicon!! 



#8 redfoliage2

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Posted 20 December 2021 - 02:59 PM

So here it is - Chinese central bank (PBC) cut interest rate to contain Evergrande default, I see they should be able to minimize the impact there:

https://www.reuters....020-2021-12-20/

 

I see a bounce is in the cards for tomorrow ......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 20 December 2021 - 03:05 PM.


#9 pdx5

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Posted 20 December 2021 - 06:01 PM

May be only a dead cat bounce. The inflation genie is already out of the bottle due to FED being behind the curve as usual and over-printed money along with Brandon in White House. Now watch, FED will over-correct (rinse and repeat). FED has a history of being always behind the curve.  


Edited by pdx5, 20 December 2021 - 06:02 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#10 redfoliage2

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Posted 20 December 2021 - 07:04 PM

Yea, the Fed will have to admit its wrong again with the rate hiking at certain point next year and will have to step on brake unexpectedly. Maybe the PBC got better analysts there .

Edited by redfoliage2, 20 December 2021 - 07:10 PM.