6 replies to this topic

[tradesurfer]

At the mid day point SPY volume almost 60 million shares.

 

last Fridays volume was 85 million

 

if we blow that out be end of day it would seem that something is 'building' here...

[tradesurfer]

so the QQQ broke *key* horizontal support, but the SPY did not yet

 

so does the tail wag the dog or does the dog wag the tail

 

does QQQ lead SPY to break horizontal support

[orange]

Today's down move in the nasdaq of more than -2.0% was in the 95% percentile for the downside move I was expecting. I mentioned Saturday to my group that the nasdaq and spy should close above Fridays lows. I wouldn't have believed it this morning...

We should have bounced today, but I think 'news' this morning lead to an even further pullback. Todays lows should mark at least a 1 week low, and I'd expect range based action for the rest of week, with a slightly bullish bias.

[Rogerdodger]

.The QQQ broke *key* horizontal support

 

Here's always my quandary: Was that just a "Technical" breakdown...or a "Tactical" breakdown to trap bears?.

Kinda like when the main line of a military defense retreats in "defeat" pursued by the enemy, only to have the  enemy surrounded on all sides!.

I can't remember the guy's name (now deceased) who put me on to this, but he always had interesting E-Wave charts

 

I've heard that when you get a signal, take it.

But I'm always looking over my shoulder.

[tradesurfer]

Well today's gazillion dollar question is do the bulls win the battle here based on one days price bar reversal action. They are used to winning these daily battles a lot and yet right now in recent time frame there appears to be a change in tone of the market. I would like to propose the theory that a one day reversal candle does *not* make a new trend. In fact I would argue that this reversal hammer is simply an intraday reversal and the weekly *down* trend will soon resume, probably faster than most think. The key point about reversal hammers is that they need to be taken into the context of where they are occurring. At the end, middle or beginning of a new trend. My argument is that this one is occurring at the beginning of a new trend DOWN. Thus, it is much less likely to serve as a valid permanent reversal signal.

This market is still in denial and thinks the Fed will treat the market with baby gloves and barely clamp down on the easy money. It is a risky proposition to trade on forward looking events, but if CPI print on Wednesday is very strong I think then we are looking at a serious resumed selloff in the market.

In terms of Astro there are some very hard and negative aspects these two weeks. There is a mercury station on Friday which has a +/- 3 day orb. So that influence starts to kick on tomorrow Tuesday January 11th.

In my chart below we see that November 22 2021 is the key swing top date for nasdaq. We count the number of days (33 BARS) into the corrective period and we come close the exact number of days as the 1987 "moment before the crash' zone.

the daily MACD is *negative* and under the zero line (very dangerous !)

the RSI is UNDER 50 zone and barely holding support at 39

We also see that during the crash period of 1987 we learn that the *most devastating* LIMIT down price action began and occurred *under* the RSI 30 zone. And in fact it began at RSI 30 and went down from there.

Even IF the current nasdaq gets down to the 30 zone on RSI, it says that the most devastating price action will be just before us, like standing on the edge of the top of a waterfall.

The yellow smiley face is the zone where bulls attempted natural buying at support. In my view the pressure is on the bulls to get a very swift recovery here. Anything less hints at an acceleration down into end of next week.

Finally a useful tooltip is to place a tradingview alert when RSI gets to less than or equal to 30 < . When that alert triggers expect an avalanche of selling.

 

 

[tradesurfer]

[brucekeller]

I just bought today because we were hitting a year old trend line and looks like it held for now.