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sure looks like we are in a wave iii down


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#11 K Wave

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 02:09 PM

Ok well I figured it out sort of

 

We get and SP500 price of 4000 to reach an RSI value of about 14.

 

I guess that RSI 14 value is only feasible if we close on the lows again Monday, then the Tuesday dump and then maybe fed meeting wednesday spike north.

29 and 87 crashes both went to 900 day, and if you have watched my stuff over the years, you know the 900 MA can be a magnet once the vertical trend breaks...on ANY time frame.

 

So....that could be a likely target if things fully let go here next week.

Although I believe this will eventually get much worse than a 900 test this go round...that amount of CARNAGE that is going on under the surface is astounding....and that will likely matter a lot at some point....

As I have been saying, Once the Mega Caps let go...LOB..

This should be a generational top once all the Mega Cap monthly charts completely break down. AMZN and NFLX already gone.

Once AAPL MSFT FB and TSLA get up a head of steam downside..................

 

And if bulls manage to stick save it in this area, then perhaps on last multi-month ramp towards 5K SPX, and then we come unglued in mid-spring.

Mega Cap FANG stocks looking like it could easily happen NOW...we find out soon...

 

spx.png


Edited by K Wave, 23 January 2022 - 02:11 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#12 K Wave

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 02:16 PM

And here is QQQ, where the momo picture is substantially worse....

 

If we do not crash straight away here, I think big ol' H&S is the best bulls might be able to manage upside.

 

Too much damage beginning in Mega Caps to get back to new highs in the HEAVILY Mega Cap weighted QQQ

 

qqq.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#13 gannman

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 05:46 AM

i do like the oil sector here it is holding up well. i think it will be a leader once the selling is done

 

the question is when is the selling done 


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#14 brucekeller

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 05:54 AM

i do like the oil sector here it is holding up well. i think it will be a leader once the selling is done

 

the question is when is the selling done 

My guess is Wednesday with FOMC press conference.



#15 gannman

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 08:46 AM

yes i would expect a bounce there no doubt 


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#16 tradesurfer

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 09:12 AM

4000 sp500 looks like a nice round number target  and would put us at an RSI equivalent to the low of the 1987 crash



#17 K Wave

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 09:29 AM

4000 sp500 looks like a nice round number target  and would put us at an RSI equivalent to the low of the 1987 crash

3200-3500 is equivalent of 87 crash...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#18 brucekeller

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 09:42 AM

Wasn't a big part of the 87 crash from portfolio insurance?



#19 tradesurfer

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 09:48 AM

i guess i have to scratch my previous comment.   4270 is a somewhat important support shelf and there is a fed meeting coming up.... seems like a huge bounce could come from there... it is really a question of what happens after that support is hit



#20 K Wave

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Posted 24 January 2022 - 09:51 AM

Wasn't a big part of the 87 crash from portfolio insurance?

It was support break after a vertical run.

 

Portfolio was the excuse they came up with.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy