18 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

And there is still this.....this IS NOT a picture of a panic washout low....

 

Theses types of moves usually end in PANIC...we are not there yet...

 

It seems as though almost everyone thinks this is just a flesh wound......just like 87 (or 29)...which crashed from nearly an identical configuration to Friday's close.

And despite the fact that intermediate term stuff has blown out the supports...and that usually does not end very well for the dip buyers, that have been so well trained to buy every dip while those supports were still holding...

 

Anyway, see what happens dead ahead here...Biden shutting down the truckers certainly not likely to help matters any.

 

[K Wave]

The 3 stocks that will most likely drive any continued downturn will be the Big 3 AAPL MSFT and GOOGL, along with FB and TSLA

 

Here is GOOGL today vs 1929 Dow....it IS setup perfectly...the question is will it happen?

 

IF they do manage a stick save on GOOGL and the other Big 5 Mega Caps, then likely a few more months at best until things are at the cliff edge again.

I think there is reasonable possibly it happens right here....next few days are likely very critical now....

 

 

[K Wave]

As long as TSLA is below 1K, the Crash Window is Wide Open for Business.

 

Perhaps we see a brief respite into Fed / MSFT earnings?

 

Edited by K Wave, 23 January 2022 - 01:51 PM.

[pdx5]

TSLA is the ultimate speculation stock.

Sells less than 10% of GM sales.

Stock is worth more than 10 times GM stock on market capitalization. 

So speculative by a factor of more than 100++++++ !

Edited by pdx5, 23 January 2022 - 02:28 PM.

[beta]

You cannot myopically focus on SP or Dow here...

 

For NY Fang, I think something like the below is the BEST they will be able to manage, and it could easily turn into an option B full blown crash right from here all the way down to that 900, as this is precisely the formation where crashes of that variety DO happen.

I can show example after example after example of daily charts completely crashing from this formation. NFLX just the most recent example....

 

In any event, stickin' to my story that I will be shocked if NY Big 10 Fang gets above Friday's candle...the floor literally just gave way there....

If they eventually recapture that floor, I will be the first to admit I am wrong, but with the fully synchronous rollovers I am seeing across multiple longer time frames, I do not think I will be wrong....

 

Now let's just assume that I turn out to be correct....what is going to be the effect of tons of market cap going full blown bear market, either gradually, or all at once, on SP and DOW, and especially NAZ?

 

If that monthly chart of TQQQ does not scare the hell out of you, do not know what it would take.......

 

 

 

That's quite a chart, KWave !  And these are supposed to be the Generals  - yikes.

 

From an e-wave perspective, note the near-perfect symmetry between:  1.  wave 3 from 2008 low to Jan 2020 peak; and 2. wave 5 from March 2020 low to Dec 2021 peak.  The time compression of these consecutive wave structures is consistent with a blow off top imho.   

Edited by beta, 23 January 2022 - 02:31 PM.

[K Wave]

Buffet's Berkshire is one I will be watching closely over the coming days, as a proxy for "non-fang" (there is a little bit of AAPL and AMZN, but only 2% of total)

 

IF it can survive next few days without coming back below the breakout, then non-fang could still have a bit of life left to keep things up a bit longer.

 

But...IF..we get the dreaded Breakout!....oops...Fakeout action, that will likely be final nail in the coffin getting prepped for the bulls...

 

Edited by K Wave, 23 January 2022 - 03:23 PM.

[K Wave]

Note that weekly BRK has a currently CONFIRMED Hangin' Man (hang 'em high as they say)

 

So unless bulls can negate that, bears have benefit of doubt going forward..

 

[K Wave]

NY FANG startin' to look more like Option B unfolding....

 

IF AAPL seriously breaches 160...LOB, and fast

 

[12SPX]

And that +50 point move in the S&P in 15 minutes is a warning shot for the shorts.  Put premiums are screaming bearish which is a little more accurate than the CNN fear gauge.  Gotta love it lol!!