581 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

This GRANTHAM guy is very popular this weekend and past week. 

 

 

Waiting For The Last Dance

Jan. 06, 2021 10:24 AM ETSPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, IWM, TZA, SSO, TNA, VOO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, TQQQ, UPRO, PSQ, SPXL, UWM, RSP, SPXS, SQQQ, QID, DOG, QLD, DXD, UDOW, SDOW, VFINX, URTY, EPS, TWM, SCHX, VV, RWM, DDM, SRTY, VTWO, QQEW, QQQE, FEX, ILCB, SPLX, EEH, EQL, QQXT, SPUU, IWL, SYE, SPXE, UDPIX, JHML, OTPIX, RYARX, SPXN, HUSV, RYRSX, SPDN, SPXT, SPXV, TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, SHY, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, IEI, BIL, TYO, UBT, UST, PLW, VGSH, SHV, VGIT, GOVT, SCHO, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, DTYL, EGF, VUSTX, DTUS, DTUL, DFVL, TAPR, DFVS, FIBR, GBIL262 Comments118 Likes

Summary

• Most of the time, perhaps three-quarters of the time, major asset classes are reasonably priced relative to one another.
• The real trouble with asset allocation, though, is in the remaining times when asset prices move far away from fair value.
• I am doubling down, because as prices move further away from trend, at accelerating speed and with growing speculative fervor, of course my confidence as a market historian increases that this is indeed the late stage of a bubble.
• This time, more than in any previous bubble, investors are relying on accommodative monetary conditions and zero real rates extrapolated indefinitely.

Executive Summary

The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior, I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, right along with the South Sea bubble, 1929, and 2000.

These great bubbles are where fortunes are made and lost – and where investors truly prove their mettle. For positioning a portfolio to avoid the worst pain of a major bubble breaking is likely the most difficult part. Every career incentive in the industry and every fault of individual human psychology will work toward sucking investors in.

But this bubble will burst in due time, no matter how hard the Fed tries to support it, with consequent damaging effects on the economy and on portfolios. Make no mistake - for the majority of investors today, this could very well be the most important event of your investing lives. Speaking as an old student and historian of markets, it is intellectually exciting and terrifying at the same time. It is a privilege to ride through a market like this one more time.

https://seekingalpha...for-last-dance?

[dTraderB]

Will ROBINHOOD and/or ARRKKKKK...survive until end of 2022? 

 

the IPO game: 

 

"Finance, democratized?

A lot of people have now lost a lot of money. I have no way of knowing what percentage of them were retail investors, but back in July 2020, when I wrote about Robinhood users being ‘the gravy’, this is the kind of stuff I worried about. Even more, this feels exactly like the woo-woo Silicon Valley doublespeak of democratizing finance that has always grated on me. In that original Robinhood post, I had written:

I hadn't processed just how perfectly Robinhood has silicon valley-ified financial markets until I started writing this post. Robinhood is Facebook is Google is everything else. Just look at the story:

• Stanford (or insert other top-level school here) grads head out to disrupt a market that genuinely needs to be disrupted.

• The great disruption is things will become free. Everything is couched in the language of democratization. The Robinhood founders even push the origin story that the idea was born amidst the Occupy Wall Street protests .

• As with most "free" products, the real business model is based on engagement. The more time you transact and interact on the platform, the more money the platform makes.

• The product is built to trigger every possible dopamine receptor in a user's brain. In the early years, terms like gamified UX are considered a positive.

• The company grows to an incredible size and the founders and investors and lots of people working there get incredibly rich.

• We slowly start to see a litany of unintended consequences, but for the most part, it's too late and the cultural impact has already taken place.

....and we’re at that stage about unintended consequences. It’s yet another example of the language of democratization being deployed without any thought of how to build up the newly democratized world.

...In many ways the crash is already here. On the way up we’ve been inundated with gain porn but no one likes sharing the drips and drops on the way down. I started this post meaning to write about ZIRP and risk (for next week! we’re writing again! [Yes!!! —Can]) but also have been thinking about story stocks and the quiet mechanisms that have exacerbated this cycle. I’m the first to acknowledge, things could still get weirder. But as the era of ZIRP appears to be over, the coming weeks are going to get a lot more interesting."
https://www.readmarg...-and-ipo-access
 

[dTraderB]

Just too good to not post:
 

"...I’m the first to recognize that there are endless momentum-y, meme-y stocks have collapsed (this is me in mid-December on CNBC saying the ‘era of the story stock is over’), but this is brutal. So many of these stocks are 60-80% off their high, but much more glaring is how uniform the Robinhood IPO Access stock charts look:

Please excuse my ugly image as we don’t have a graphics department (Note 3), but just look. It doesn’t matter whether you’re a Brazilian fintech, a fancy salad chain, a cloud backup company, a German solar company, a fantastic expense management SaaS (I love Expensify), something-something-blockchain, coconut water, a biotech claiming to cure chronic disease, a fraud detection company, an Australian energy company, a COVID-19 testing maker, a wallet for nerds, or whatever else. It didn’t matter whether you IPO’ed in May or July or November. Other than the jewelry company $BRLT Brilliant Earth (on the top right) every single company comes out incredibly strong or has a spike early on, and then it slowly dies. Sometimes, like $SEV or $SG or $HLTH, it’s brutal. Other times, like $ARBK or $NRDS, you see glimmers of hope and then goodbye. Seriously, take a look again."

https://www.readmarg...-and-ipo-access

[K Wave]

This GRANTHAM guy is very popular this weekend and past week. 

 

 

Waiting For The Last Dance

Jan. 06, 2021 10:24 AM ETSPY, QQQ, DIA, SH, IWM, TZA, SSO, TNA, VOO, SDS, IVV, SPXU, TQQQ, UPRO, PSQ, SPXL, UWM, RSP, SPXS, SQQQ, QID, DOG, QLD, DXD, UDOW, SDOW, VFINX, URTY, EPS, TWM, SCHX, VV, RWM, DDM, SRTY, VTWO, QQEW, QQQE, FEX, ILCB, SPLX, EEH, EQL, QQXT, SPUU, IWL, SYE, SPXE, UDPIX, JHML, OTPIX, RYARX, SPXN, HUSV, RYRSX, SPDN, SPXT, SPXV, TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, SHY, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, IEI, BIL, TYO, UBT, UST, PLW, VGSH, SHV, VGIT, GOVT, SCHO, TBX, SCHR, GSY, TYD, DTYL, EGF, VUSTX, DTUS, DTUL, DFVL, TAPR, DFVS, FIBR, GBIL262 Comments118 Likes

Summary

• Most of the time, perhaps three-quarters of the time, major asset classes are reasonably priced relative to one another.
• The real trouble with asset allocation, though, is in the remaining times when asset prices move far away from fair value.
• I am doubling down, because as prices move further away from trend, at accelerating speed and with growing speculative fervor, of course my confidence as a market historian increases that this is indeed the late stage of a bubble.
• This time, more than in any previous bubble, investors are relying on accommodative monetary conditions and zero real rates extrapolated indefinitely.

Executive Summary

The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior, I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, right along with the South Sea bubble, 1929, and 2000.

These great bubbles are where fortunes are made and lost – and where investors truly prove their mettle. For positioning a portfolio to avoid the worst pain of a major bubble breaking is likely the most difficult part. Every career incentive in the industry and every fault of individual human psychology will work toward sucking investors in.

But this bubble will burst in due time, no matter how hard the Fed tries to support it, with consequent damaging effects on the economy and on portfolios. Make no mistake - for the majority of investors today, this could very well be the most important event of your investing lives. Speaking as an old student and historian of markets, it is intellectually exciting and terrifying at the same time. It is a privilege to ride through a market like this one more time.

https://seekingalpha...for-last-dance?

 

Yes, with the floor recapture on the US 10 yr yield, and as the 10 yr yield chart Japan is showing, the game of near Zero or less than Zero is nearly over.

Once that 10 yr Japan chart launches, the long awaited end the Japanese Bond Bull is going to come crashing to an end.

Could be a matter of just days now until lift off.....

 

SO MANY Apple Carts about to be overturned.....

 

Edited by K Wave, 23 January 2022 - 12:46 PM.

[dTraderB]

Bold prediction here:
 

We've got problems and we're not going to bottom in the stock market until we begin to work through them.

On Saturday, January 8th, we hosted MarketVision 2022. It was our third annual MarketVision event and it was spectacular, as usual. Below is a 15-year weekly chart of the S&P 500 and this is what I shared with attendees in terms of my outlook for 2022 and where I believed we would be heading:

This is a very simplistic view of a V-shaped bottom that occurs sometime in the middle of 2022. There could be different iterations of this that I'll continue to monitor throughout the first half of the year, but this is essentially how I see things unfolding. The Great Depression 2.0?

Remember Rule #1: Follow what Wall Street is doing on the charts with their money. IGNORE what Wall Street is doing on CNBC with their lips.

https://stockcharts....t-this-188.html

[dTraderB]

Good stuff below! WHY? Because I also think the same way or close to it:

"...Listen, the Reddit folks and those that began investing during the pandemic don't know what a bear market looks like. They don't even know what a correction looks like. This lesson is already painful and it's only going to grow. In order to generate a major bottom, sentiment must reverse course. The good news is that it started this past week. The bad news is that sentiment doesn't reset itself overnight. It's a mentality that must be changed over weeks and months. While we've had episodes of fear, as evidenced by periodic surges in the VIX, the state of the market is one of intense bullishness. That is going to change and there'll be clues provided to tell us when it's getting safer to get back in on the long side. It won't be when the market rebounds for a few days. That'll be amateur hour as traders, who believe the stock market cannot possibly go any lower, will find out that - yes, it actually can go lower. When U.S. equities are downtrending and seeing bounces, that's the hardest part of bear markets, because the sudden strength starts to trick our minds into thinking the worst is behind us. The worst is still ahead of us, so remember that on a bounce.

The good news, however, is that once this cyclical bear market cycle runs its course, we are going to see an EXPLOSION higher. JUST WAIT. That's what encourages me to remain patient."

Bold prediction here:
 

We've got problems and we're not going to bottom in the stock market until we begin to work through them.

On Saturday, January 8th, we hosted MarketVision 2022. It was our third annual MarketVision event and it was spectacular, as usual. Below is a 15-year weekly chart of the S&P 500 and this is what I shared with attendees in terms of my outlook for 2022 and where I believed we would be heading:

This is a very simplistic view of a V-shaped bottom that occurs sometime in the middle of 2022. There could be different iterations of this that I'll continue to monitor throughout the first half of the year, but this is essentially how I see things unfolding. The Great Depression 2.0?

Remember Rule #1: Follow what Wall Street is doing on the charts with their money. IGNORE what Wall Street is doing on CNBC with their lips.

https://stockcharts....t-this-188.html

[dTraderB]

Packed week + earnings

SUNDAY, JANUARY 23
22:00   AUD   Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI(Jan) PREL      
22:00   AUD   Commonwealth Bank Services PMI(Jan) PREL  

MONDAY, JANUARY 24
08:15   FRA   Markit Manufacturing PMI(Jan) PREL      
08:15   FRA   Markit PMI Composite(Jan) PREL      
08:15   FRA   Markit Services PMI(Jan) PREL      
08:30   GER   Markit Manufacturing PMI(Jan) PREL      
08:30   GER   Markit PMI Composite(Jan) PREL      
08:30   GER   Markit Services PMI(Jan) PREL      
09:00   EUR   Markit Manufacturing PMI(Jan) PREL      
09:00   EUR   Markit PMI Composite(Jan) PREL      
09:00   EUR   Markit Services PMI(Jan) PREL      
09:30   GBP   Markit Manufacturing PMI(Jan) PREL      
09:30   GBP   Markit Services PMI(Jan) PREL      
13:30   USD   Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Dec)     
14:45   USD   Markit Manufacturing PMI(Jan) PREL      
14:45   USD   Markit PMI Composite(Jan) PREL      
14:45   USD   Markit Services PMI(Jan) PREL          
 
TUESDAY, JANUARY 25  
00:30   AUD   Consumer Price Index (QoQ)(Q4)     
00:30   AUD   Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Q4)     
00:30   AUD   RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ)(Q4)     
09:00   GER   IFO – Business Climate(Jan)     
09:00   GER   IFO – Current Assessment(Jan)     
09:00   GER   IFO – Expectations(Jan)     
14:00   USD   Housing Price Index (MoM)(Nov)     
14:00   USD   S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)(Nov)     
15:00   USD   Consumer Confidence(Jan)     
21:45   NZD   Exports(Dec)     
21:45   NZD   Imports(Dec)     
21:45   NZD   Trade Balance NZD (YoY)(Dec)     
    
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 26
N/A      GER   10-y Bond Auction     
15:00   USD   New Home Sales (MoM)(Dec)     
15:00   CAD   Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report     
15:00   CAD   BoC Interest Rate Decision     
15:00   CAD   BoC Rate Statement     
16:15   CAD   BoC Press Conference     
19:00   USD   Fed Interest Rate Decision     
19:00   USD   Fed's Monetary Policy Statement     
19:30   USD   FOMC Press Conference     
21:45   NZD   Consumer Price Index (QoQ)(Q4)     
21:45   NZD   Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Q4)     

THURSDAY, JANUARY 27 
07:00   GER   Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey(Feb)     
13:30   USD   Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(Q4) PREL      
13:30   USD   Durable Goods Orders(Dec)     
13:30   USD   Durable Goods Orders ex Defense(Dec)     
13:30   USD   Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation(Dec)     
13:30   USD   Gross Domestic Product Annualized(Q4) PREL      
13:30   USD   Gross Domestic Product Price Index(Q4) PREL              
13:30   USD   Initial Jobless Claims(Jan 21)     
13:30   USD   Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Jan 21)     
13:30   USD   Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft(Dec)     
13:30   USD   Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(Q4) PREL      
15:00   USD   Pending Home Sales (MoM)(Dec)     
21:00   NZD   ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence(Jan)     
23:30   JPY   Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)(Jan)             
23:30   JPY   Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)(Jan)     
23:30   JPY   Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)(Jan)    

FRIDAY, JANUARY 28  
06:30   FRA   Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q4) PREL      
08:00   CHF   KOF Leading Indicator(Jan)     
10:00   EUR   Business Climate(Jan)     
10:00   EUR   Consumer Confidence(Jan)     
13:30   USD   Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(Dec)     
13:30   USD   Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(Dec)     
13:30   USD   Personal Income (MoM)(Dec)     
13:30   USD   Personal Spending(Dec)     
15:00   USD   Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index(Jan)      

[dTraderB]

FED will be dovish. 

 

"Friday was problematic for stocks due to the $3.3 Trillion simultaneous expiration of index and stock options.

The “good news,” if you want to call it that, and as noted by Zerohedge, is there is now a good bit of “combustible fuel” to create a counter-trend rally heading into the Fed meeting next week.

“The extreme negative / short Delta” across all option expiries is at risk of becoming a combustible fuel for a mechanical squeeze if spot rallies. There is over -$107B of front-week Delta alone.“

All this means is that investors are now all on “one side of the boat,” which is a prime setup for a counter-trend bounce.

However, it is likely a bounce you will want to use to “derisk” your portfolio.

The Big Risk Next Week

Next week is the January meeting of the FOMC. The results of that meeting will set the market’s tone for the next few months. With the markets already in correction mode, the big question is whether or not the Fed will press ahead with monetary tightening..."

https://realinvestme...-market-plunges

[redfoliage2]

This guy has been calling for a market crash since a year ago, but the market still not crashed. I would give him another year to try .

Edited by redfoliage2, 23 January 2022 - 05:48 PM.

[dTraderB]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

Jan 22

 

Have a great weekend! Ugly week for #ES_F: 6 red days in a row & 1st 200dma loss this bull market. Daily RSI(5) though now extreme oversold most since Feb 2020. Relief bounce energy Plan Next Week: Drop to 4320-30 then bounce shot. 4430 now resistance-above we squeeze to 4530-40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

Jan 22

 

Have a great weekend! Ugly week for #ES_F: 6 red days in a row & 1st 200dma loss this bull market. Daily RSI(5) though now extreme oversold most since Feb 2020. Relief bounce energy Plan Next Week: Drop to 4320-30 then bounce shot. 4430 now resistance-above we squeeze to 4530-40