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BOUNCE & PLUNGE: waiting for the last dance & for the music to stop


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 05:49 PM

Inevitably, There will be a face ripping relief rally in #ES_F (like in Feb 2020 or Feb 2018 after 1st sell leg) & narrative will switch to "bottom is in, ATHs coming". Stay open minded & lvl-to-lvl: Bulls must prove themselves by clearing a major resistance (4540 a good start)

 

 
 
Have a great weekend! Ugly week for #ES_F: 6 red days in a row & 1st 200dma loss this bull market. Daily RSI(5) though now extreme oversold most since Feb 2020. Relief bounce energy Plan Next Week: Drop to 4320-30 then bounce shot. 4430 now resistance-above we squeeze to 4530-40 


#12 dTraderB

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 05:50 PM

Yeah, ST extremely oversold so I am expecting the bounce into the FED meeting, and then the decline resumes

 

NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator got down to -293 on Friday, Jan. 21, the lowest since the -421 during the Covid Crash 2 years ago. This is officially "pretty darned oversold". It can go lower, but that's pretty hard.


#13 dTraderB

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 05:54 PM

In bounce zone but how high it bounces? 

 

McClellanOsc_1222.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#14 dTraderB

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 05:56 PM

Bullish poll

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
ef7ELPi8_bigger.jpg
 
What comes first Now 4390 #ES_F $SPX $SPY $QQQ #NQ_F $ES_F
  •  
    4240
    42.4%
  •  
    4540
    57.6%
1,490 votes·Final results
 
 
 
 
 
ef7ELPi8_bigger.jpg
 
What comes first Now 4390 #ES_F $SPX $SPY $QQQ #NQ_F $ES_F
  •  
    4240
    42.4%
  •  
    4540
    57.6%
1,490 votes·Final results


#15 dTraderB

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 05:58 PM

POLL: relative to what’s priced into markets, is “no hike in January, 25bps in March, no hike in May, 25bps in June” hawkish or dovish?
  •  
    Hawkish
    13.5%
  •  
    Dovish
    40.1%
  •  
    Neither
    22.6%
  •  
    Just show me results
    23.8%
1,185 votes·Final results

 

Bullish poll

 

Lord Fader

 
What comes first Now 4390 #ES_F $SPX $SPY $QQQ #NQ_F $ES_F
  •  
    4240
    42.4%
  •  
    4540
    57.6%
1,490 votes·Final results 


#16 dTraderB

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 05:59 PM

We end the week FLAT! 
 

Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    50.3%
  •  
    DOWN
    49.7%
4,155 votes·Final results

 

POLL: relative to what’s priced into markets, is “no hike in January, 25bps in March, no hike in May, 25bps in June” hawkish or dovish?
  •  
    Hawkish
    13.5%
  •  
    Dovish
    40.1%
  •  
    Neither
    22.6%
  •  
    Just show me results
    23.8%
1,185 votes·Final results

 

Bullish poll

 

Lord Fader

 
What comes first Now 4390 #ES_F $SPX $SPY $QQQ #NQ_F $ES_F
  •  
    4240
    42.4%
  •  
    4540
    57.6%
1,490 votes·Final results 

 



#17 redfoliage2

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 07:05 PM

This guy has been calling for a market crash since a year ago, but the market still not crashed. I would give him another year to try .


More likely it was due to wild OpEx related activities. This is a very different market with option volumes much larger than stock volumes. Also Jan options were listed the earliest so the volumes even larger. Its said Jan OpEx clearance involved $3 trillions

Edited by redfoliage2, 23 January 2022 - 07:08 PM.


#18 dTraderB

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 08:47 PM

Good bounce so far. 4 profitable NQ trades

That's it for tonight unless ALERTS triggered

 

SELL LIMIT orders placed

SELL 1 NQ 14650

SELL 1 CRUDE  86.20, 86.60, 87, 88



#19 pdx5

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 08:54 PM

More from Jeremy Grantham,
the famed investor who for decades has been calling market bubbles, 
said the historic collapse in stocks he predicted a year ago is underway and even 
intervention by the Federal Reserve can’t prevent an eventual plunge of almost 50%.
 
In a note posted Thursday, Grantham, the co-founder of Boston asset manager GMO, 
describes U.S. stocks as being in a “super bubble,” only the fourth of the past 
century. And just as they did in the crash of 1929, the dot-com bust of 2000 and 
the financial crisis of 2008, he’s certain this bubble will burst, sending indexes 
back to statistical norms and possibly further.
 
That, he said, involves the S&P 500 dropping some 45% from Wednesday’s close -- 
and 48% from its Jan. 4 peak -- to a level of 2500. The Nasdaq Composite, already 
down 8.3% this month, may sustain an even bigger correction.
 
 
GMO's Grantham Says Fed Can't Stop Stock Crash
WATCH: Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder of Boston’s GMO and longtime value manager, 
details his call for a crash in the S&P 500 and explains why central bank efforts 
to prevent a major selloff are unlikely to succeed. 
 
“I wasn’t quite as certain about this bubble a year ago as I had been about the 
tech bubble of 2000, or as I had been in Japan, or as I had been in the housing 
bubble of 2007,” Grantham said in a Bloomberg “Front Row” interview. “I felt 
highly likely, but perhaps not nearly certain. Today, I feel it is just about 
nearly certain.
 
In Grantham’s analysis, the evidence is abundant. The first sign of trouble he 
points to came last February, when dozens of the most speculative stocks began 
falling. One proxy, Cathie Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF, has since tumbled by 52%. 
Next, the Russell 2000, an index of mid-cap equities that typically outperforms 
in a bull market, trailed the S&P 500 in 2021.
 
Finally, there was what Grantham calls the kind of “crazy investor behavior” 
indicative of a late-stage bubble: meme stocks, a buying frenzy in electric-
vehicle names, the rise of nonsensical cryptocurrencies such a dogecoin and 
multimillion-dollar prices for non-fungible tokens, or NFTs.
 
It could, he said, rival the impact of the dual collapse of Japanese stocks 
and real estate in the late 1980s. Not only are equities in a super bubble, 
according to Grantham there’s also a bubble in bonds, “the broadest and most 
extreme” bubble ever in global real estate and an “incipient bubble” in 
commodity prices. Even without a full reversion back to statistical trends, 
he calculates that losses in the U.S. alone may reach $35 trillion.
 
Grantham is a dyed-in-the-wool value manager who’s been investing for 50 years
 and calling bubbles for almost as long. He knows his predictions are fodder 
for skeptics. One obvious question: How could the S&P 500 advance 26.9% in 
2021 -- its seventh-best performance in 50 years -- 
if stocks were poised to plummet?
 
Rather than disprove his thesis, Grantham said the strength in blue-chip 
stocks at a time of weakness in speculative bets only reinforces it.
 
“This has been exactly how the great bubbles have broken,” he said. 
“In 1929, the flakes were down for the year before the market broke, they 
were down 30%. The year before they’d been up 85%, they crushed the market.”
 
Seeing the same pattern that played out in every past super bubble is what 
gives him so much confidence in predicting this one will implode similarly.
  
Grantham pins the blame for bubbles of the past 25 years mostly on bad 
monetary policy. Ever since Alan Greenspan was Fed chairman, he argues, 
the central bank has “aided and abetted” the formation of successive bubbles 
by first making money too cheap and then rushing to bail out markets when 
corrections followed.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#20 redfoliage2

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Posted 23 January 2022 - 08:59 PM

 

This guy has been calling for a market crash since a year ago, but the market still not crashed. I would give him another year to try .


More likely it was due to wild OpEx related activities. This is a very different market with option volumes much larger than stock volumes. Also Jan options were listed the earliest so the volumes even larger. Its said Jan OpEx clearance involved $3 trillions

 

With the Jan OpEx gone a new options cycle begins Monday with business back as usual ..........................