4036 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

just bot GDXJ (34.59) and GDX (29.11) aggressively and am now 20% long

 

Senor

[gannman]

thanks jabat and senor for the info 

 

i bought some more xme and retl if they have not bottomed they are close imo 

 

a question about ssrm for the board they are being put in the russel 1000 index 

 

but the stock is down 13 per cent  i dont get it any one have any thoughts on that

 

i am already fully loaded in the gold sector i will buy more after gld clears 176 and then more when 

 

gld clears 184 thats my plan i am very bullish on the commodities here fwiw 

[senorBS]

just bot GDXJ (34.59) and GDX (29.11) aggressively and am now 20% long

 

Senor

added a modest iniial tranche of SSRM at 15.86 which is down almost 16%, report of a cyanide leak in Turkey and could be some fund selling as well. as always DYODD

 

Senor

[senorBS]

 

A Nice Reset in GDX

By Avi

For many months, I have been struggling with the GDX count, as it failed several times to provide us with a tradeable Fibonacci Pinball structure off any lows.  In fact, the multiple bottoms in the same region had made this quite complex to track from an Elliott Wave standpoint.  

Moreover, when NEM was striking its high in April, I was quite vocal in noting my intention to reduce my holdings for the first time since I began buying into the complex in September of 2015.  It had struck the target I had wanted to see on its larger degree structure, so, for me, it was time to cash in a sizeable portion of the holdings I had in NEM.   And, now I am looking to redeploy that cash.

I was on a 9+ hour flight on Friday, which allowed me to re-look at the mining complex.  And, the one thing that was quite evident from the charts I looked at was that they all had a 5-wave c-wave decline in its final stages of completion, with strong positive divergences on their daily charts.   And, as you can see, this is exactly how I am seeing the GDX daily chart as well.  While there is still some potential for a little lower before this c-wave completes, I would still view the current region as a buyable opportunity for those that do not have already have positions in the complex.

In the bigger picture, the complex has certainly made me much more nervous to be holding oversized positions (which was one of the other reasons I raised cash in my NEM holdings this past April).   Most of the charts have turned extremely sloppy off their 2015 lows, which suggests larger degree diagonals are taking shape.   While that is not really a concern for me at this very moment, I just want to tell you that I will likely be raising 70%+ cash after the next 5-wave rally outlined on my GDX chart completes.

But, that leads me to my next point.  I am going to wait for the next 5-wave rally off a low to complete in GDX before I am interested in redeploying MOST of the cash I raised from NEM.   I will likely be adding some further positions over the coming week or two, but most of the cash will be deployed once we see that [i][ii] structure develop over the coming weeks.

Also, should we see an impulsive move off an expected low in GDX, I intend on aggressively trading that rally to the upside within the Fibonacci Pinball structure that develops.

While silver had a potential [i][ii]1-2 structure in place, I warned not to get too bullish until the set up actually triggered.  And, at the end of the week, we saw that 1-2 invalidate when silver broke down below the level of the potential wave 1.  So, at this point in time, silver still has not shown us a desire to maintain the [i][ii] potential immediate bullish structure, and still leaves the potential for a lower low in wave [2].  

As far as GLD is concerned, the bigger picture still strongly suggests we are in a 4th wave in an expanding ending diagonal.  So, there is nothing further I can add to my analysis on this.

Also, please take note that the daily charts are still retaining a strong positively divergent bottoming signal in the MACD.  So, once we do get a final signal that a bottom has been struck, I think we can see a powerful rally thereafter.

 

agree with this, and the miner/gold ratio charts IMO look particularly "bottomy" with modest new lows with really good lookin bullish divergences so far. Now about 22% long

 

Senor

[gannman]

thnx for that info senor 

[dharma]

russ , everyone in this biz, if they are honest, has losses. everyone

we are having what i think is capitulation in the miners.   keep in mind that it is now more expensive to be a miner. energy costs are rising in all business. mining is no exception.  so to a certain extent miners are being revalued due to rising costs.  the game doesnt really start till the fed pivots. i am guessing september. 

dharma

[dharma]

here is a chrt of gdx posted by avi https://www.elliottw...232048597f1.jpg

dharma

[dougie]

interesting gold sover divergence

[senorBS]

 

just bot GDXJ (34.59) and GDX (29.11) aggressively and am now 20% long

 

Senor

added a modest iniial tranche of SSRM at 15.86 which is down almost 16%, report of a cyanide leak in Turkey and could be some fund selling as well. as always DYODD

 

Senor

 

Holy guacamole SSRM back at 18 area, should I take profits?

 

Senor

[dougie]

just bot GDXJ (34.59) and GDX (29.11) aggressively and am now 20% long

 

Senor

what are you seeing to by=uy agressively here? I mean VST i see that you now have a winning trade on your hands...but LT off the MAY highs you think this putative c down is done or?