4036 replies to this topic

[gannman]

just did some more buying fwiw

 

thats what we be talking about yes !!!

Edited by gannman, 08 August 2022 - 09:41 AM.

[dharma]

 

 

My bottom line is that I am not expecting any recent low to necessarily be a "final one", I think we can have a several week/couple month int term rally and then we'll see what the wave structure off the low looks like, I am a "swing trader" only for now, no bigger picture assumptions, remain 40% long

 

Senor

there are  5 waves down from the last highs in gold, so unless those lows are taken out. , this rally will be a corrective rally

dharma

 

Dharma, no disagreement that the decline from March high at 2070 is a big 5 down - but the BIG Q is 5 of what? Was perhaps that March high a B wave and we completed 5 down for C of a flat? IMO that is just as viable as 5 down of a developing much larger corrective decline. I make no assumptions either way.

 

Senor

 

yes, good points. well taken.    lets see what we have here. 

new highs then no question

dharma

[Russ]

Thanks Russ

No problemo, hope we make some money. 

 

Dollar should break below it's uptrend channel giving gold some fuel. 

[dharma]

https://twitter.com/...xqgteJUIWi4KCgA

pm  rally underway , we need to make new highs if this is going to have any juice. 

dharma

[dharma]

full moon on the 11 . this will be a powerful full moon occurring in capricorn  in the nakshastra dhanishtha"star of symphony" indicating workinbg together in harmony

the moon is very close to saturn.  saturn is a task master.   w/o going into alot of details.  i think this will be a topping process for the broad market.   

saturn is we the people.  i look for some of the divisions that are occurring among people to  be seen . i look for several world leaders to step down. 

just a heads up

dharma

[senorBS]

 

 

 

My bottom line is that I am not expecting any recent low to necessarily be a "final one", I think we can have a several week/couple month int term rally and then we'll see what the wave structure off the low looks like, I am a "swing trader" only for now, no bigger picture assumptions, remain 40% long

 

Senor

there are  5 waves down from the last highs in gold, so unless those lows are taken out. , this rally will be a corrective rally

dharma

 

Dharma, no disagreement that the decline from March high at 2070 is a big 5 down - but the BIG Q is 5 of what? Was perhaps that March high a B wave and we completed 5 down for C of a flat? IMO that is just as viable as 5 down of a developing much larger corrective decline. I make no assumptions either way.

 

Senor

 

yes, good points. well taken.    lets see what we have here. 

new highs then no question

dharma

 

My overall feeling is in the gen mkt this is in a bear market rally and in the Fall we make new decline lows - perhaps even a panic type large wave 3 of C, and miners and most anything gets taken down to new lows as well. This "panic", when extreme enough, then forces the Fed to cave and abandon rate hikes and QT and reverse course, that's the nexus and from there risk assets are the buy. Inflation much better than a deflationary collapse. I have seen mentioned guys like MA thinking early 2023 and a few late 2022, in any case my current thinking is that's when THE buy point may occur, but it's very possibly going to be along the lines of the Covid collapse. Nothing but a TRADER for now, exited 1/2 of longs today, now 20% long

 

Senor

[linrom1]

NEM in the red. It's hard to picture miners going up without the biggest miner.

[dharma]

 

 

 

 

My bottom line is that I am not expecting any recent low to necessarily be a "final one", I think we can have a several week/couple month int term rally and then we'll see what the wave structure off the low looks like, I am a "swing trader" only for now, no bigger picture assumptions, remain 40% long

 

Senor

there are  5 waves down from the last highs in gold, so unless those lows are taken out. , this rally will be a corrective rally

dharma

 

Dharma, no disagreement that the decline from March high at 2070 is a big 5 down - but the BIG Q is 5 of what? Was perhaps that March high a B wave and we completed 5 down for C of a flat? IMO that is just as viable as 5 down of a developing much larger corrective decline. I make no assumptions either way.

 

Senor

 

yes, good points. well taken.    lets see what we have here. 

new highs then no question

dharma

 

My overall feeling is in the gen mkt this is in a bear market rally and in the Fall we make new decline lows - perhaps even a panic type large wave 3 of C, and miners and most anything gets taken down to new lows as well. This "panic", when extreme enough, then forces the Fed to cave and abandon rate hikes and QT and reverse course, that's the nexus and from there risk assets are the buy. Inflation much better than a deflationary collapse. I have seen mentioned guys like MA thinking early 2023 and a few late 2022, in any case my current thinking is that's when THE buy point may occur, but it's very possibly going to be along the lines of the Covid collapse. Nothing but a TRADER for now, exited 1/2 of longs today, now 20% long

 

Senor

 

your feelings are the same as mine . this is a suckers rally imo , in the broad market.  the fact is the fed raised rates, which will lower the bottom line of companies.  i dont know if the next wave down will be a crash or more like jan-march type of decline. i do think it could be another 20-30%.  i have seen enough declines in the broad market to know the pms get dragged down w/ the broad averages. then at some point  after the damage is done to the housing market. the fed will then reverse, if not  we are going to deflate then and there. when they do pivot , it will be a big rally in everything.. if new highs are not seen in gold then , gold will finish the 23.5 yr cycle @ the end of 23 or early 24 then the bull begtns in eartnest.    i am also open to the long cycle left translating a bit.  but that may be my imagination.      anyway we are on the same page.   the vix needs to get over 45 at the very least .  at the covid lows it was over 300

dharma

[Russ]

NEM in the red. It's hard to picture miners going up without the biggest miner.

Capitulation exhaustion gap on big volume followed by double bottom and now CM Ult MACD has given a buy signal.  

[crossd]

".....   Hurst Gold caveat:..the low just formed in July 2022 MAY be a 9 year cycle LOW....donc ....."

---------------------

I haven't watched the video yet,. but the low of 4.5 yrs ago in late 2017 looks iffy, and 9 years in mid 2013 is underwhelming too.

I'm not seeking to be critical, just evaluating it.

 

The 8 year cycle -2008, 2016, 2024 looks better to me.

 

And 7 year - 2001 / 2008 / 2015 / 2022

 

I find cycles messy but include them in my thinking.

 

Comments welcome.

Smithy..the Hurst stuff is tough to watch but he does say gold is better analyzed by the tops rather than the bottoms...the bottoms as you say can be problematic..

donc