357 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Happy Holidays, doing my weekly maintenance, annoying WINDOWS update, etc today... may do a few posts. 

 

Here is an interesting "Sentiment" indicator, not necessarily a "SIGNAL" or a "TRIGGER"

I am NET LONG, slightly so, but I am building a LONG POSITION slowly..... could quicken the pace if a WASH-OUT ensues next week or so 

 

Chart In Focus

Multiyear Records for AAII Survey

 

 

April 14, 2022

 

The American Association of Individual Investors (www.aaii.com) surveys its members every week to see if they are bullish, bearish, or neutral.  This week’s data, released on Thursday, April 14, 2022, showed the most negative bull-bear spread since April 2013.  The last time we saw negative sentiment like this in the AAII survey was in the summer of 2020, as investors were still worried about the Covid Crash that had unfolded in March 2020.  That worry helped to fuel a long bull market.  And the Fed’s QE helped a lot too.

 

https://www.mcoscill...or_aaii_survey/

 

[dTraderB]

"...That older generation of survey respondents has since been replaced by a population that includes a lot of buy-the-dippers, who know that every dip has (eventually) been a great buying opportunity.  So even though they may get scared by market action from time to time, they tend not to get scared all the way out like in those early years. 

Until now.  Something has happened here in 2022 to cause investors’ hearts to make a hard turn away from their once-bullish norms.  The Fed contemplating larger interest rate hikes is assuredly one factor.  The war in Ukraine with no apparent resolution is another.  Add to that a 5.2% SP500 drawdown from the March 29 rebound high, and that was apparently enough to scare the AAII members into thinking that the sky really is falling.  But these survey respondents, like in most other surveys, have an excellent track record of being wrong when they all move together. ..."

 

Happy Holidays, doing my weekly maintenance, annoying WINDOWS update, etc today... may do a few posts. 

 

Here is an interesting "Sentiment" indicator, not necessarily a "SIGNAL" or a "TRIGGER"

I am NET LONG, slightly so, but I am building a LONG POSITION slowly..... could quicken the pace if a WASH-OUT ensues next week or so 

 

Chart In Focus

Multiyear Records for AAII Survey

 

 

April 14, 2022

 

The American Association of Individual Investors (www.aaii.com) surveys its members every week to see if they are bullish, bearish, or neutral.  This week’s data, released on Thursday, April 14, 2022, showed the most negative bull-bear spread since April 2013.  The last time we saw negative sentiment like this in the AAII survey was in the summer of 2020, as investors were still worried about the Covid Crash that had unfolded in March 2020.  That worry helped to fuel a long bull market.  And the Fed’s QE helped a lot too.

 

https://www.mcoscill...or_aaii_survey/

 

Edited by dTraderB, 15 April 2022 - 12:06 PM.

[dTraderB]

Reversed from near zero. My FF is another drop this week -- a LOW next week or following week -  then a strong rally.

 

This may coincide with a lessening or end of the war in Ukraine

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

Trade YEN today, more LONGS than SHORTS, holding 1 YEN SHORT 126.426, left 2 YEN SHORT limit orders 

 

Will look at this in greater detail with the possibility of using it...

"Since we don't have the luxury of sitting down with management teams, our approach must focus on "hearing the story" from the charts rather than the management teams - and that's exactly what we do.

Over the past few quarters, we've developed an "Upcoming Earnings Relative Strength ChartList". In this ChartList, we organize companies that (1) will be reporting in the week ahead, (2) have market capitalizations over $1 billion, and (3) trade at least 200,000 shares a day over the past quarter to ensure liquidity. The truly unique part of this ChartList is that every chart is in relative strength form. For instance, last week Unitedhealth Group (UNH) reported its earnings and they were fantastic. UNH beat consensus estimates on both its top line (revenues) and bottom line (EPS). On one of my Trading Places LIVE shows last week, I had pointed out the good, the ok, and the ugly among upcoming earnings reports. UNH was the "good". Any time a stock is leading its industry group higher and its industry group is one of the strongest vs. the S&P 500, that's a great combination and one in which I expect to see great quarterly results. UNH did not disappoint. Let's look at UNH on a relative strength basis as it headed into earnings last week:    "

https://stockcharts....solute-595.html

[dTraderB]

If ES makes a new APRIL low, then rallies to 4450 - 4500, I will be looking for any signs of a ST TOP in that zone and then resumption of DECLINE....

 

Market Oversold As “Sell In May” Approaches

By Lance Roberts | April 15, 2022

 

Market Review & Update

Given this is Easter Weekend, we are just providing a short-market update on our market thoughts as we begin the wrap-up of the seasonally strong period of the year.

On Thursday, markets sold off, reversing the previous day’s gains as April options expiration led to a bout of volatility. The good news is that the market held support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level even with the selloff. Furthermore, the market is oversold and close to triggering a short-term buy signal.

Given the oversold market condition and the fact the week after “tax day” trends positive as liquidations to pay tax bills complete, the odds for a reflexive rally are encouraging.

However, as we will discuss next, any rally into May is likely a good opportunity to reduce and rebalance portfolio equity risk.

https://realinvestme...-may-approaches

[dTraderB]

I will grab a ST ES 4300 LOW with LOAD THE BOAT with  LONGS

But, if ES 4300 trades then most likely 4250 will be the next reversal level

 

xTrends

 

@xtrends

·

1h

 

"...Here is my next call. There is going to be another ST rally from mid 4300 area after the holiday .."

[dTraderB]

TWITTER should drop to mid-30s now that this fiasco is over

Will SHORT it above 43

JUST IN - Twitter's board invokes "poison pill" in an attempt to thwart Elon Musk's takeover - a defensive response that could lead to a massive dilution of existing shareholders.

[dTraderB]

Will close 2nd NQ HEDGE SHORT @ 13745 with BUY LIMIT order placed 

Would prefer to wait until after 9:30am tomorrow but I prefer to increase net longs now

 

Will reopen above 13900 when traded, whenever.... and will add an extra lot to my NQ SHORT daytrades, if I remember 

 

YEN is boring tonight... so expect WILD MOVES soon

 

NAT GAS hit highest intraday price above $7.5 

 

 

[dTraderB]

Meanwhile.... carnage here: 

 

Holger Zschaepitz

@Schuldensuehner

·

6h

 

#Inflation surge slashes $11tn from world’s negative-yielding debt. Negative ylds were once considered inconceivable, then as novelty, & later as established feature of global mkts. They reflect belief that CenBanks would keep interest rates at rock bottom https://ft.com/content/c0401e

 

The biggest bond bubble in 800yrs continues to deflate after rising US #inflation data (CPI & PPI) shake up the bond markets. The value of global bonds has dropped by another $400bn this week, bringing total loss from ATH to $6.4tn.

1e-c5f4-49a3-8c07-7ebfc4fda46a

 

 

[K Wave]

And now that the huge hourly pivot on SP has been busted after one of the most masterful keep the sheep sucked in paint jobs on the Dow I have ever seen for most of last Thursday, SP now in potentially extremely dangerous territory inside the daily crash window as we start the new week....

 

Hourly

 

Daily