According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday the 18th of April which is just part of a two day risk window with last Thursday the 14th, Wednesday the 20th and Friday the 22nd.
Last week's Monday risk window shown below was part of a larger two day window which did tag a local high. The Thursday the 14th window which is also part of two day window also tagged a high the importance of which will have to wait on trading early this coming week.
J. Powell talks this coming Thursday afternoon which might be market moving, but there weren't enough other risk cycle turns that day to show it as a high risk day. It just depends, I guess, on which side of the bed he wakes up on and how big a bird and which bird, dove or hawk, that Jerome wants to be that day. If it was just a little closer to Thanksgiving, I would be thinking maybe turkey.
If you're interested in seeing a pretty incredible history of the shape of the yield curve, you need to take a look at askslim's latest weekly video on YOUTUBE at askSlim Market Week 04/14/22 - Analysis of Financial Markets - YouTube between the 6:55 and 13:15 minute marks.
It's patently obvious that the current little bump in the yield curve shape is nothing compared to the inversion that was done (and is currently needed) by the FED the last time inflation was this hot. You have to wonder if Powell, a Republican, is just simply trying to help insure his party's success in this coming fall elections if you don't buy the it makes his old Wall Street buddies' stock portfolios grow, obvious gross incompetence/complete economic ignorance or he just plain hates pensioners, the poor and all salaried workers excuses for such limited action to fight inflation. Maybe they're taking comfort in the appearance that inflation has peaked, not that there's any sign that it's going to go down sharply, just not continue to accelerate upward. I suppose letting the masses go broke slowly is acceptable, as long as it's slow enough so that they don't ever break out the tar, feathers and pitchforks, and doubly good if you can pin the blame on Vlad.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 16 April 2022 - 05:09 AM.
