14 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Maybe some negative observations will help out an ailing bull or two...

 

Mike Burk

Conclusion: The periods around holidays tend to be strong.  Last week did not support that pattern.

In addition to the ongoing bear market, Seasonality for the coming week is awful.

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Keep On Stacking when the market is oversold!

Over six days at the end of October 1929, the stock market plunged by a third. Groucho Marx later recalled the exact words from his financial adviser. Marx, he said, the jig is up.

Groucho lost a quarter of a million 1929 dollars.

 

Groucho Quotes:

“I worked myself up from nothing to a state of extreme poverty.”

“I made a killing on Wall Street a few years ago. I shot my broker. And not a moment too soon. He was about to commit suicide.”

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 April 2022 - 05:57 PM.

[gismeu]

Thanks,

good to know.

gis

[Rogerdodger]

I think that the end of  quantitative easing is the gorilla in the room.

 

The scale of quantitative easing could make it impossible to sell bonds back to the market and this will damage the government's ability to borrow in the future. If the ability to borrow is constrained, this will lead to higher interest rates and reduce economic growth.

 

Why can we not print more money?

Unless there is an increase in economic activity commensurate with the amount of money that is created, printing money to pay off the debt would make inflation worse. This would be, as the saying goes, "too much money chasing too few goods."

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Unwinding Quantitative Easing Won't Be Easy

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Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 April 2022 - 05:54 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Redfin: More sellers are cutting home prices as housing market demand begins to soften

https://fortune.com/...mortgage-rates/

[pdx5]

Redfin: More sellers are cutting home prices as housing market demand begins to soften

https://fortune.com/...mortgage-rates/

Natural follow up with mortgage rates now at 5%+

18 months ago my daughter got a 30 year fixed at 2.75%

[Rogerdodger]

18 months ago my daughter got a 30 year fixed at 2.75%

 

My grandaughter too!

Her $250,000 "starter home" price is now up $40K from last year.

And her payments are less than rent!

 

It makes paying off the mortgage look really dumb.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 17 April 2022 - 07:02 PM.

[GDA]

Beg to differ, during the last 20 years the SPX  has been up 70% of the time during the next two weeks.

[gismeu]

Beg to differ, during the last 20 years the SPX  has been up 70% of the time during the next two weeks.

Now that is very interesting! Did you look at those 20 weeks over the last 20 years yourself?
Have you seen discrepancies with Mike Burke before?

Thanks, gis

[q4wer]

April  , especially , the second half,  tends to be bullish on the annual seasonality chart.    don't know where Mike got the awful conclusion.

[q4wer]

AAII poll shows that people are bearish,  mostly recently, it actually works for bears for at least 3 days,  finding a bottom.