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THE BOUNCE: Trappy & Treacherous, then retest 2022 LOW


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2022 - 07:09 PM

Markets got a bit active ! Rallied & dropped! 

 

Her poll is VERY BULLISH --- I translate this to be mildly bullish, instead of 61/38 bullish I'd say the real sentiment is about 53/48 bullish

 

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    61.4%
  •  
    DOWN
    38.6%
4,367 votes·Final results


#12 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2022 - 09:21 PM

Limit orders for 5th ES & NQ hedge short  still not filled but closing 4th ES & NQ hedge shorts  at 3994.5 and 12310.5

 

Holding 3 each NQ & ES hedge short

 

 

 

 

DULL market tonight, 4 trades, not keen to trade this, but of Intra bar range rises then yes.... Still think we see ES 4050 or higher tonight

Will place limit orders to open 5th ES HEDGE SHORT above 4050, NQ HEDGE SHORT above 12600

 

 

notable uptick in bond sentiment, but still net bearish
 
bounce in sentiment on the week, still very bearish, but less so
 
POLL CHARTS here:

 



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 15 May 2022 - 09:22 PM

Active markets after China reports disappoint, want to trade a few more minutes



#14 K Wave

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Posted 15 May 2022 - 09:24 PM

With the overnight failure here...looking a bit more likely TZA does indeed blast off from the backtest of the huge breakout

 

tza.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#15 beta

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Posted 15 May 2022 - 10:58 PM

Good bounce off extremely oversold and bearish sentiment but unless proven otherwise this is another 

BEAR MARKET rally that will soon reverse to retest 2022 LOWs

 

But, it may not if there is quick end to the UKRAINE situation, energy prices drop, China COVID surge dissipates, and supply chain issues are less painful on the global economy. 

 

Good end to a hectic with profits on Thursday & Friday, small net weekly profit,  and holding LARGE LONG positions in LONG TERM & RISK Portfolios. However, I decided to hedge as much as possible, so much so that HEDGE SHORT profits were only smaller than the record weekly NQ daytrading profits. UVXY PUTS &  TLT CALLS profits also helped.  

 

I expect a bounce, another plunge, then a better rally to at least ES 4450/4500

 

We could see higher markets in the November/December period if there is no COVID surge in the US/EUROPE/CHINA

 

 

That "better rally" will not exceed 4310 imho.   About 2-3% left on this bounce.


Edited by beta, 15 May 2022 - 11:00 PM.

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#16 dTraderB

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Posted 16 May 2022 - 07:22 AM

Agree, top in this zone 4250 to 4300

Unless some major positive news...

Good bounce off extremely oversold and bearish sentiment but unless proven otherwise this is another 
BEAR MARKET rally that will soon reverse to retest 2022 LOWs
 
But, it may not if there is quick end to the UKRAINE situation, energy prices drop, China COVID surge dissipates, and supply chain issues are less painful on the global economy. 
 
Good end to a hectic with profits on Thursday & Friday, small net weekly profit,  and holding LARGE LONG positions in LONG TERM & RISK Portfolios. However, I decided to hedge as much as possible, so much so that HEDGE SHORT profits were only smaller than the record weekly NQ daytrading profits. UVXY PUTS &  TLT CALLS profits also helped.  
 
I expect a bounce, another plunge, then a better rally to at least ES 4450/4500
 
We could see higher markets in the November/December period if there is no COVID surge in the US/EUROPE/CHINA
 

 
That "better rally" will not exceed 4310 imho.   About 2-3% left on this bounce.


#17 dTraderB

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Posted 16 May 2022 - 07:24 AM

Added 4th hedge shorts
ES 4013.5
NQ 1235O

WILL ADD another ABOVE ES 4050

WANT to lower risks on this rally, gradually close LONGS except TLT CALLS

#18 12SPX

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Posted 16 May 2022 - 07:37 AM

As I mentioned last week that there is still a chance the S&P would rally to around 4175 this week, plus the fact it was the Dow's 7th week down in a row and that hasn't happened in 20 years so of course when the ES hit 4000 last night it was time to start buying, actually at 3997 and now have an average long of 3992, profit stop 3995 for the cash open.  Markets are still quite oversold so I'm sure we'll continue higher and put prices are still far to high for this cycle also.  As d also pointed out, sentiment is so bearish its ridiculous.  Way more important than the market though is that Calgary won in overtime last night to go into the battle of Alberta to play Edmonton!!  It was during the game when I saw the ES at 3997 lol!!  Going to be a great series to watch!!! 



#19 K Wave

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Posted 16 May 2022 - 07:59 AM

Getting the full meal deal on the this BTC wedgie at 30K...something big coming soon...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#20 dTraderB

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Posted 16 May 2022 - 08:16 AM

market wants to test some important levels lower ... it appears so, ES 3980-90 important strong support zone

 

USD/YEN is stuck .... not much movement, potential for trades last week or so

I am going to look at the EUSD market, EURO plunged, near 104, could go to parity and then rise

I think it rallies soon as the USD backs off from recent highs