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Not scared by today' s drop


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#11 fib_1618

fib_1618

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Posted 18 May 2022 - 10:15 PM

 

 

Amazing the market liked what Powell said yesterday, but traders woke up feeling completely different today.

500 points up yesterday 950 points down today! I think the market is confused.

 

This is exactly the reason why many of today's technicians gave up on fundamental analysis for better and more consistent profits.

 

I did not see any TA experts forecasting today's record breaking decline. May be I just missed that post.

 

You're not likely to see timely, no less reasonable, TA posts like this on a free public forum.

 

People pay for such information, and hopefully for the vendor, the information provided is consistent enough to continue to earn subscriber's support.

 

What you did see over the last couple of days was how high this "oversold" bounce would go before completion and would it eventually qualify for a tradable bottom. Most of the answers had very little technical evidence to support their opinions...it was based more on the FED and (political) fundamentals which is like looking in a rear view mirror as the marketplace discounts future economic events.

 

In our chat sessions, we examine breadth and volume dynamics twice a week and then provide a bottom line after each area is reviewed.

 

With respect to Tuesday's, the breadth bottom line was:

 
May 17, 5:39 PM

fib1618: so...the last several days have provided some excitement for the buyers in an effort of chipping away at a bottom, but until the components of the MCO's also agree with the directional bias of the MCO itself, all that's likely to be seen, at best, is trading range development and not that of a change of trend."

 

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Bottom line with respect to volume was:

 

"May 17, 6:04 PM

fib1618: so...it appears that the longs are attempting to make a mighty stand here...it's too soon, however, to know whether this attempt will hold or, like General Custer, will turn out to be their "last stand ""

 

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In any event, Tuesday's forensic review showed that much, if not all, of what we saw over the last several days was textbook short covering. So if the market was going to resume its bear trend by turning sharply lower fill the vacuum created by such (analytical) phenomenon, it would do so as soon as today due to technical exhaustion and various resistance levels that were reached in this same counter trend move. At the end of the day...the current trend of market continues to be to the downside until proven otherwise by only one area of analysis that can forecast such things: money flow as represented by the advance/decline line.

 

Fib

 


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#12 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

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Posted 19 May 2022 - 01:53 PM

Fib, Thank you for taking time to post in detail.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule