* If someone can explain how to copy and/or post a jpeg. pic in this forum I can provide the 2022 Bradley Indicator, which has been on a roll in 2022 with accuracy!
UPDATE ON ME: There are many here in this forum that follow various cycles which makes for a terrific, shared community of ideas, strategies, interpretations of charts, cycles, hence the name "Fearless Forecasts." I've been a part of this community since Mark started it decades ago, though I don't post often any longer as I am no longer an active trader. I left corporate life recently, moved from DFW, Texas to the rural Ozarks and I am now living my dream...at age 55 I recently finished the Police Academy and I am now a Sheriff Deputy, something I have wanted to do my whole life (It's a Calling and I felt the Call) but postponed it because the pay stinks (can you believe starting salary is $36k/year?!) and I wanted to be financially set first, which took me until now to be able to do. No debt, low cost of living and low taxes, though inflation will put a hurt on me!
On to Cycles:
At this juncture in the equity markets, for those with dry powder, assemble a wishlist of stocks you want to purchase AND instead of placing limit orders, Sell cash-covered puts at strikes below the market and/or at prices you'd be willing to pay for the stocks. A rarity...at this time and at these price levels after the massive selloff, coupled with terribly negative sentiment, this is a low risk strategy and at the very least, it will generate nice income if the stocks aren't "put to You." Which if they are, you own them but at lower prices that where they're currently trading at. I usually go 3 or 4 months out in expiration and pick a price level that is support or take a stab at prices 5% or so below current market. The higher the price for the stock the better as the premium you'll receive is rich, especially now, puts are extremely expensive!
(One ETF that I own and love holding is DIVO. a CEF that I own and love holding is SOR. Check them out and read about them, they're unique and are managed well.)
If on the other hand, you're fully-invested in stocks, you'll get a chance to lighten up in the Fall, when a cycle turn (High) is due. Right now you have to be very patient and hopefully you can collect dividends while you wait. Regardless, you will want to lighten up on forthcoming rallies to high or near previous highs (probably get back to 4300 on S&P by Sept). WHY? Because things are going to get rough in 2023. Hint...War Cycles will heat up in 1st quarter of 2023.... big Lows in markets in 2024. Cash is King again and will become more and more attractive as savings account rates increase as FED plays out their intentions.
Civil Unrest & Crime:
There are cycles for this also, believe it or not. It will also be on the rise again. You can pick numerous catalysts, from Roe vs. Wade (in the event the opinion of Supreme Court justices come to fruition as a Majority), Increased price inflation. More Scarcity for just about everything will cause major social problems. Food Shortages will get worse and worse. WHAT'S MORE Important than your investment account is your access to food. You can be a goldbug and hold precious metals in your home safe but you can't eat it! Things are going to become very bad. I recently ordered a 1/2 a cow and I would recommend doing this as well. I will also hunt a deer in the Winter as I am now on 15 acres and there's deer galore. Stock up on non-perishable foods. That "Patriot Supply" survival food is okay but it's very expensive currently. I purchased a month supply over four years ago when it was much less expensive. Plant non-GMO seeds and grow your own garden. The veggies taste great and gardening is therapy!
* I know I delved into many areas in this post but this is all very important.
You don't have to be a "nut-job prepper." But DO BE PREPARED......ALSO, and this is from a newly-sworn Deputy, BE YOUR OWN FIRST RESPONDER. Take that how you decide. Have medical supplies, buy tourniquets AND learn how to use them. Have all the defense supplies you need. I learned something in the early days of the 14 week Police Academy.
The Police show up after a crime has already been committed. As much as we desire to Protect our communities, we Service them by taking a thorough report from witnesses after a crime, which is very unfortunate. Think about that. We show up after the crime, not often do we prevent a crime. Know the laws in your state and PREPARE TO BE YOUR OWN FIRST RESPONDER.
Edited by cycletimer, 21 May 2022 - 08:06 PM.