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Cycles and Bradley


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#1 cycletimer

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Posted 21 May 2022 - 07:58 PM

* If someone can explain how to copy and/or post a jpeg. pic in this forum I can provide the 2022 Bradley Indicator, which has been on a roll in 2022 with accuracy!

 

UPDATE ON ME:  There are many here in this forum that follow various cycles which makes for a terrific, shared community of ideas, strategies, interpretations of charts, cycles, hence the name "Fearless Forecasts."  I've been a part of this community since Mark started it decades ago, though I don't post often any longer as I am no longer an active trader.  I left corporate life recently, moved from DFW, Texas to the rural Ozarks and I am now living my dream...at age 55 I recently finished the Police Academy and I am now a Sheriff Deputy, something I have wanted to do my whole life (It's a Calling and I felt the Call) but postponed it because the pay stinks (can you believe starting salary is $36k/year?!) and I wanted to be financially set first, which took me until now to be able to do.  No debt, low cost of living and low taxes, though inflation will put a hurt on me!

 

On to Cycles:

At this juncture in the equity markets, for those with dry powder, assemble a wishlist of stocks you want to purchase AND instead of placing limit orders, Sell cash-covered puts at strikes below the market and/or at prices you'd be willing to pay for the stocks.  A rarity...at this time and at these price levels after the massive selloff, coupled with terribly negative sentiment, this is a low risk strategy and at the very least, it will generate nice income if the stocks aren't "put to You."  Which if they are, you own them but at lower prices that where they're currently trading at.  I usually go 3 or 4 months out in expiration and pick a price level that is support or take a stab at prices 5% or so below current market.  The higher the price for the stock the better as the premium you'll receive is rich, especially now, puts are extremely expensive!  

(One ETF that I own and love holding is DIVO.  a CEF that I own and love holding is SOR.  Check them out and read about them, they're unique and are managed well.) 

 

If on the other hand, you're fully-invested in stocks, you'll get a chance to lighten up in the Fall, when a cycle turn (High) is due.  Right now you have to be very patient and hopefully you can collect dividends while you wait.   Regardless, you will want to lighten up on forthcoming rallies to high or near previous highs (probably get back to 4300 on S&P by Sept).  WHY?  Because things are going to get rough in 2023.  Hint...War Cycles will heat up in 1st quarter of 2023.... big Lows in markets in 2024.  Cash is King again and will become more and more attractive as savings account rates increase as FED plays out their intentions. 

 

Civil Unrest & Crime:

There are cycles for this also, believe it or not.  It will also be on the rise again.  You can pick numerous catalysts, from Roe vs. Wade (in the event the opinion of Supreme Court justices come to fruition as a Majority), Increased price inflation. More Scarcity for just about everything will cause major social problems.  Food Shortages will get worse and worse.  WHAT'S  MORE Important than your investment account is your access to food.  You can be a goldbug and hold precious metals in your home safe but you can't eat it!  Things are going to become very bad.  I recently ordered a 1/2 a cow and I would recommend doing this as well.  I will also hunt a deer in the Winter as I am now on 15 acres and there's deer galore.  Stock up on non-perishable foods.  That "Patriot Supply" survival food is okay but it's very expensive currently.  I purchased a month supply over four years ago when it was much less expensive.  Plant non-GMO seeds and grow your own garden.  The veggies taste great and gardening is therapy!  

* I know I delved into many areas in this post but this is all very important.  

You don't have to be a "nut-job prepper."   But DO BE PREPARED......ALSO, and this is from a newly-sworn Deputy, BE YOUR OWN FIRST RESPONDER.  Take that how you decide.  Have medical supplies, buy tourniquets AND learn how to use them.  Have all the defense supplies you need.  I learned something in the early days of the 14 week Police Academy. 

The Police show up after a crime has already been committed.  As much as we desire to Protect our communities, we Service them by taking a thorough report from witnesses after a crime, which is very unfortunate.  Think about that.  We show up after the crime, not often do we prevent a crime.  Know the laws in your state and PREPARE TO BE YOUR OWN FIRST RESPONDER. 


Edited by cycletimer, 21 May 2022 - 08:06 PM.


#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 21 May 2022 - 10:30 PM

If someone can explain how to copy and/or post a jpeg. pic in this forum

 

I use https://postimages.org/to post images.

"Click to choose your copied image, then copy & paste or drag & drop files anywhere"

 

Click on the "images" icon at TT,  then just copy and paste.

 

"Astrological-based timing earned Gann legendary status."

 


Edited by Rogerdodger, 21 May 2022 - 11:13 PM.


#3 Douglas

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 01:31 AM

cycletimer, I did the exact opposite of you and moved from the Ozarks to Texas, of course, now I'm in England, but that was the wife's decision and not mine.  I spent several very happy years in a little town called Valley Springs near Harrison in the Arkansas Ozarks.  I tried to talk the wife into retirement there to no avail.   

 

You mentioned deer hunting, but if you haven't taken up smallmouth bass fishing in the mountain creeks and rivers, you have definitely got to give it a try, especially if you're going to do the whole survivalist thing.   Also, if you haven't already, you need to discover pawpaw and muscadines which are native to the Ozarks and plant several of these on your land.  If you can beat the possums and raccoons to them when they ripen, they will add some nice sweets to your home grown food store in the fall. 

 

With regards to long cycles, four year and seven year ones that I track in the DJIA should be bottoming later this year or early next year, although I'm not so sanguine about the timing of this low as I once was since some long cycles like the decennial one seem to have been distorted, I assume, by the tremendously long and unprecedented FED forced low interest rates and money pumping.   Maybe now that Powell seems to have found inflation religion, these cycles may get back on track, but it's just too early to tell.

 

Regarding your stint as a country sheriff, in the neck of the woods that I lived, they were a whole law unto themselves.  The local sheriff there had a garden patch next to a main train line.  One year the maintenance crew that cared for the line sprayed defoliant down the right-of-way to clear pesky plants trying to grow over the tracks.  Unfortunately they got a little carried away with their spraying as they passed the sheriff's vegetable plot.  The sheriff who didn't mention his position called Union Pacific and demanded payment for his damaged crop or he would take up the tracks.  When the railroad contacted the police in a nearby town asking who was the law in that area, they told the railroad company that it was the man threatening them.  Needless to say, the railroad company sent him the money.  

 

For an interesting take on crime and Roe v. Wade read Levitt & Dubner's book Freakonomics.  They postulated that the drop in crime in the US about 20 or so years after the ruling was possibly a direct result of the sharp drop in the number of unwanted, ill-treated children born after the ruling.  Unexpected secondary effects can be a real pain in the backside as I think the FED is about to find out the hard way.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 pdx5

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 06:00 AM

If inflation stays north of 6-7 % for several months I expect serious rise in crime. As cycletimer suggests police show up AFTER you are already been victimized. Firearms still can be purchased legally. Prepare adequate defense. And stock up on canned food in self opening cans. Electric can opener won't work if power is absent.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#5 brucekeller

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Posted 23 May 2022 - 06:11 AM

Or just have a decent manual one.



#6 cycletimer

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Posted 25 May 2022 - 07:55 AM

If inflation stays north of 6-7 % for several months I expect serious rise in crime. As cycletimer suggests police show up AFTER you are already been victimized. Firearms still can be purchased legally. Prepare adequate defense. And stock up on canned food in self opening cans. Electric can opener won't work if power is absent.


I agree with your suggestion but I didn’t want to go there and add controversy (to any potential “wokes” on this board). Let me say this, along with gun purchases comes TRAINING! Get trained in all aspects, from gun safety, to stance, shooting, cleaning/lubing, etc). One training company that we use is Fieldcraft Survival. Google them, company is owned by retired Green Beret, Mike Glover and the training is SUPERB! All his instructors have combat experience, both in recent wars as well as being members of SWAT teams. They train in all aspects, including the mental side of being involved in a shooting.

#7 12SPX

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Posted 25 May 2022 - 08:16 AM

Or just watch a lot of cop shows and war movies lol!!  Just kidding, I would love training as the world is going to crap and getting scary out there.