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A Sustainable LOW but HOW HIGH this BOUNCE? 5 to 10%


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 04:55 PM

A great TRADING week, only 1.9% return for the week but was down until that monstrous reversal.

 

I expect a retest of at least 3850, possible trading 3760-70 zone this week, but 

there is a sustainable LOW being formed and the bounce can be from 5 to 10%

 

Not much higher unless unexpected good news, and this is now a different market than the BULL of previous years. 

 

DIP BUYERS may be burned in a regular basis if they continues to "buy the sure thing on every drop"

 

 

Holding a BIG LONG position with 4 ES & NQ HEDGE SHORT'

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 04:56 PM

Have a great weekend! After 7 weeks of relentless selling, #ES_F hit support at 3810 of an 8 month downtrend channel.
Spot to relief bounce
Plan Next Week: As long as 3850 holds, 3935, 4025 next up where bears can step in again. 3850 fails, next sell leg starts direct to 3620


#3 redfoliage2

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 05:50 PM

With big players loaded at the double bottom last Friday a very likely upside target is SPX 4300 where it double-topped early May ........................



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 06:25 PM

How will THEY manage to let this down slowly and not crash  it?  Can they? DOT COM deja vu

 

Late Stage Prisoners Dilemma Tigers and hedge fund hotel parties

 

 

https://www.readmarg...ers-dilemma?s=r

Hanging by a thread

The sweat and stress is compounded by the fact that most of these HFCs are in a precarious position. Their public market funds have been obliterated over the past few months. The Tiger numbers have been wild:

Given that there were 82 trading days in January-April, this works out to be a loss of roughly $183mn every day that markets were open this year. Or $28.1mn every hour that US markets were open. It’s almost impressive.

These elevated private valuations are Tiger’s lifeline right now. It is existential they’re not marked down.

It’s also worth thinking about how personal this all can be. At that table where everyone is sweating, a lot of these funds are known as Tiger Cubs [Note 4]. They made their way up in the world together. They often wear tuxedos. Even the ones who aren’t Tiger Cubs have dealt with each other for years.



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 06:26 PM

I am looking for 4250-4300 range to top off again

 

BUT, also being aware that the market faces lots of headwinds ahead and could drop 5 to 10% in 2 to 3 days

 

 

With big players loaded at the double bottom last Friday a very likely upside target is SPX 4300 where it double-topped early May ........................



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 06:48 PM

YES, possible, since the market has dropped, is weak, and vulnerable. But, it is on a leg up now, momentum up, and may continue another few % up before retesting current 2022 LOW

 

Weird Moment in Time..Is A Crash Possible?
 

I have been spending all day, everyday the past week, talking to founders, reading quarterly letters and mea culpa’s (will share my faves tomorrow) and talking to hedge funds and venture fund managers trying to get a feel for any sense of a bottom, a turn or even an acceleration down.

I sense we are in a weird moment in time. A lot of funds and investors are carrying high cash levels of overvalued US dollars (other than energy one of the best performing asset classes the last year) that has nowhere to go because rates are not high enough and stocks are not low enough.

https://howardlindzo...moment-in-time/



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 06:55 PM

This time they will be right, I think, as next 100 SPX points should be UP

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    60.5%
  •  
    DOWN
    39.5%
4,743 votes·Final results


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 06:59 PM

Very bearish!

 

 

tushfacfngptiy8t4k7c_normal.png
 
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    20%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    17.4%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    44.1%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    18.5%
 
 
 

Edited by dTraderB, 22 May 2022 - 07:00 PM.


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 07:01 PM

BONDS bullish! Finally, on my side of the BONDS trade

 

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    32.7%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    21.4%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    37.2%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    8.7%


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 07:09 PM

OSC rose only 5 points but INTRA must have been down by at least 50 points!

This chart is bullish but this is not a normal market --- on the edge still, skittish, and unstable, so 

 

nothing is sure unless market clears important resistance levels above 4K

 

McClellanOsc_1305.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/