Last week’s commentary was skeptical that the rally would retrace fully half of the downtrend since the bear market began on January 4. That would equate to a top near 4300 in the S&Ps. Using the recent low at 3807, there is now a technical basis for a more confident and precise forecast. Specifically, the move appears bound for a minimum 4305.50, basis the June E-Mini S&P contract. The futures look all but certain to reach the target, given the way they impaled the ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ at 4056 toward the end of last week. Less certain is that the rally will end there. Indeed, if it blows past 4305, that would suggest Mr. Market has nastier plans for bears who may have overly enjoyed the steep ride south in April/May.
Why not a rally past mid-term elections becasue FED stops raising rates as the economy is going into full-fledged recession, well into 2023---that's bullish?
Edited by linrom1, 30 May 2022 - 08:50 AM.
