7 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

When does Powell pivot like everyone expects him too? Sept?

[12SPX]

Yup, I think next month is going to be it for raises, impossible for them to go as strong as everyone expects because of debt and mortgages...

[pdx5]

When does Powell pivot like everyone expects him too? Sept?

Not before November election.  Incumbent politicians are jittery due to consumer's being angry from pain of inflation.

Powell must be under tremendous pressure from elected politicians to do something quick.

FED funds rate will be 3.5% by end of 2022. It is 1.75% now.

Edited by pdx5, 01 July 2022 - 08:59 PM.

[K Wave]

 

When does Powell pivot like everyone expects him too? Sept?

FED funds rate will be 3.5% by end of 2022. It is 1.75% now.

 

They will run down the 2 year, but once they catch up, likely no higher....and 2 year looks like swing top is in for now...

 

2 yr did peak at 3.5 (one helluva run from 0.1%), but by time Fed catches up, may be quite a bit lower.

[pdx5]

Reason 10 year, gasoline, etc are slightly lower because every one and their uncle are convinced recession is straight ahead. None of the prime reasons for high inflation have been addressed, so it will continue.

[K Wave]

Reason 10 year, gasoline, etc are slightly lower because every one and their uncle are convinced recession is straight ahead. None of the prime reasons for high inflation have been addressed, so it will continue.

Not going to be able to blame Russia much longer...unless they decide to go after Odesa, but that may be for another day.

 

Ukraine is gettin' their behinds kicked...

Russia should soon be in mop up mode...or the idiot Zelensky, as my Ukrainian neighbor likes to call him, finally sees the writing on the wall and does the right thing and stops killing his people by sending them on suicide missions for no good reason.

 

https://www.npr.org/...k-donbas-russia

 

Between Trump Derangement, Covid Derangement, and now Ukraine Derangement, I have lost serious faith in the collective intelligence of humankind over the last few years.

Russia winning this was quite possibly the easiest prediction to make in the entire history of the world.

[Rogerdodger]

I have lost serious faith in the collective intelligence of humankind

Sorry but collective human intelligence has only allowed us to kill more people quicker.

 

Home sellers are realizing it's no longer their housing market

Mortgage rates hit 5.70% last week.

According to Realtor.com, rising mortgage rates have increased the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home an estimated 60% more than last year. The median monthly mortgage payment has jumped by $513 from the start of the year through May, according to a recent report from MBA.

It marks the fourth consecutive drop in bidding-war activity.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 July 2022 - 07:42 PM.

[qqqqtrdr]

We are starting to see the turn since people are changing their habits...   Cell phone sales are down..   GPU Sales have fallen off a cliff...  Looking around people are scaling back...   I see many companies in tech are scaling back and not hiring...    This is problematic for me because I have 2 kids graduating in December that are in Tech so we shall see how their job search goes...    Mobile phone / Computer Sales are down 10% from a year ago...    I've been looking at vehicles, and it seems June will be a low number...       The Fed has pretty much killed demand enough to let supply catch up.     With that said,  I ordered an Apple computer this weekend, and I should receive it in late September or October, so supply is still a problem even though it is improving.....