180 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Last week's topic below.   Consolidated, then broke out .... 

In the target zone now, I expect a pullback, and then zoom up into end of August.  ES 4350 to 4400 possible.

 

However, this is a very risky market at these levels above 4250, extremely risky! 

 

I am NET SHORT with 2 NQ HEDGE LONGS. 

 

Want to add to SHORT POSITIONS near ES 4300 & above if traded. 

 

I will close some SHORTS below ES 4220 

 

---

Posted 07 August 2022 - 05:45 PM

Markets consolidating after an epic BULL RUN from the lows of 2022 (new lows later this year). 
Inflation report could be the catalyst for another leg of this rally to above ES 4250

 

China/Taiwan issues, China economy still struggling, Russia WINTER GAS SUPPLY issues, another COVID variant.... markets buffeted by all these non-TA matter. 

 

I still think market drops - rapidly and new lows made - during the next 6 to 8 weeks. 

 

However, there could be a faster economic RECOVERY, lower inflation, and a temporary resolution of the EUROPEAN GAS issue, which may add another ES 200 points to this rally. 

 

 

 

 

 

[dTraderB]

VERY BULLISH ... after some concern about this OPEX week:

"In the very near-term, we have options issues that could take a toll on key technology (XLK) and consumer discretionary (XLY) stocks. If those options issues kick in this week, the overall market is likely to struggle. That will definitely be one headwind as we start the new week. But don't overlook the strength we're seeing in critical areas of the market.....

 

 Call it a bear market rally if you'd like.....and good luck with that. This is the resumption of the secular bull market that we've enjoyed since the April 10th, 2013 breakout on the S&P 500 above the double top from 2000 and 2007. I'd estimate we have another 10 years of this bull market, where I expect the S&P 500 to triple from here. Yep, I'm looking for 12000 to 15000 on the S&P 500 by the early-2030s. Then batten down the hatches."

 

https://stockcharts....elative-81.html

[dTraderB]

I am looking for a pullback to at least the ZERO line and then Up again...   

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

One of the few EW FF with which I may agree:

@MauroBianchi24

 

 

$SPY $SPX - Short-term view On Friday, after the drop from our 4235-4251 zone, we were waiting for the confirmation of the reversal. However, it wasn't achieved, so we got out at 4229 before the big squeeze towards EOD This week I'll look for the completion of W-C

 

[dTraderB]

Most important report this week - WEDNESDAY 

Could trigger a reversal  from UP to DOWN or vice-versa

 

US FOMC Minutes

[dTraderB]

Finally, my laptops & system updates are done, did not do any for almost 4 weeks! 

 

 Feshbach's call. We asked our good friend and market maven Joe Feshbach for his latest assessment of the stock market. Here it is: "Friday was the lowest put/call ratio of the advance since June16. The good news is clearly out of the bag. Six weeks ago, when stocks were meandering at their lows, hardly anyone was bullish. Now we’re starting to get acceptance of the rally. This doesn’t mean it can’t go higher, but for those that bought stocks when the sentiment indicators were extremely low, I would hold off on any new purchases and start to book some gains here. My view is there will be another opportunity."

 

https://www.yardeniq...om/market-call/

[dTraderB]

@AdamMancini4

 

 

Have a great weekend! On July 27, #ES_F broke its downtrend from March and its 1 way rally since. Obvious magnet is now its *core downtrend channel* from Jan high at 4340-50.

If it clears, low for 2022 likely in

Next week: Looking to 4300-05, dip, then 4350 in play.

[dTraderB]

About even...

 

@hmeisler

 

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  48.8%
•  

  DOWN

  51.2%

4,077 votes·Final results

[dTraderB]

Basically, I agree with this FF. 

StockTrader'sAlmanac

 

@AlmanacTrader

·

Aug 9

 

Our seasonal/cycle outlook is for a lower low or retest of the lows over the next three months as we are in the worst two months of the year and are smack dab in the “Weak Spot” of the 4-Year Cycle Q2-Q3 midterm year, which sets up the Sweet Spot and the Quadrennial Rally.

[dTraderB]

I voted BEARISH (FUNDAMENTALS)

Callum Thomas

 

@Callum_Thomas

·

21h

 

Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):

•  

  Bullish (Fundamentals)

  17.4%
•  

  Bullish (Technicals)

  26.4%
•  

  Bearish (Fundamentals)

  45.1%
•  

  Bearish (Technicals)

  11.1%

1,195 votes·2 hours left