19 replies to this topic

[andr99]

look at the spx weekly macd 

 

https://i.postimg.cc...NS/SPXMACDW.png

 

it speaks for itself

 

I was struggling to understand if we were going to new lows, which thing I believed, or if the bottom might be in as some insisted to say

 

The problem with the deep correction started in November-December, is that as any important bearish movements, it leaves your mind conditioned for a long time after it is over. 

 

But the weekly macd, which is my favourite indicator says it all........it' s over

 

By the way chief was calling the bottom at any minor low of this seven month correction, so when you go on calling wolf...wolf....it's hard that someone believes you when the true bottom comes.

 

He is now right, however.  

[da_cheif]

the bottom was in 3 months ago eh......and it took u this long to finally recognize it in hindsite????   who needed who???   lol

Edited by da_cheif, 09 September 2022 - 11:43 PM.

[andr99]

the bottom was in 3 months ago eh......and it took u this long to finally recognize it in hindsite????   who needed who???   lol

 

I took three months to recognize the bottom, but you took every minor low since December to finally catch the right bottom

 

The spx is barely up 10% from the low of three months ago, so I missed 10%.........how much did it cost to you calling the bottom at every minor low ?  

Edited by andr99, 10 September 2022 - 12:22 AM.

[andr99]

chief, I didn' t know the translation for hindsite, you know I' m a foreigner and a bit ignorant. I don' t speak your aulic English. So I went on the dictionary and soon a question to ask you arised in my mind : ''how many times did you need before you could recognize it in hindsite'' ? I went to count on the spx chart.......five times. A long painful process........ 

Edited by andr99, 10 September 2022 - 01:34 AM.

[andr99]

cheif....I' m not your brother, when you speak to me, use education. I don' t want to get caught into this way of talking which usually is adopted by lower social classes  

[andr99]

the weekly macd of the dax tells the same story

 

https://i.postimg.cc/sxs6JYFP/DAX.png

 

very telling to me..............the bear is over

[K Wave]

We are perhaps a day or 2 away from being able to make that call.

 

This market is entirely about watching the Mega Caps...as I have been saying for months as we have watched them drag the indexes around like a doggy toy.

 

As I noted throughout this week, the kind of area we are in now with cross currents on the time frames is notoriously the hardest to predict. Once the time frames sync up, then should be easier to try to play for trending move. Pretty much for bears, it is all about taking out the Mega Cap pivot lows, and for bulls getting back above the top of that big red failure candle on Aug 26.

 

TSLA on Friday "perhaps" negated the opportunity for further downside with the gap over 290, and it has definitely been the early leader on almost every move up going back for quite a while now, including this last multi-day ramp when I noted how well it was holding up, just before it launched from 275

 

Apple on the other hand has done no such thing...yet...although I could make the case for a bottom at 154 area...IF...it does not go hard down on Monday in the same time frame the very similar 1937 Dow analog did.

 

And perhaps the very best chart is AMZN...do not think I have seen such a perfect S turn above and below the 900 line in all my years of looking at these.

AMZN is "most likely" about to have a very big move...either back above the 900...OR..HARD DOWN

 

 

So perhaps wait a couple more days before making your assured pronouncement.

I am open to either outcome as a good trader should be, and hoping to make a nice swing killing once the decision is made.

 

As an aside, Eric Hadik earlier predicted that 2nd-3rd week of September would be when the big hard slide would begin, and AMZN AAPL MSFT GOOGL all still potentially well setup for it, while TSLA would likely need a big  gap down on Monday or Tuesday at the latest for it to make sense there.

 

Also note the DAX is trading below the 900 day, and that is bear territory, and "surprises" most often come to downside in bear markets.

But yeah, if bears do not take it hard down within next couple of days, this chart could climb back out over 900, and start to look better.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[K Wave]

and for Rusty, CRYSTAL CLEAR what needs to hold over next few days.

 

Again, if no hard down soon, bulls likely get ball back....but if that 900 gets taken out again, hard to see anything other than big decline ahead.

 

 

and FDX in interesting position as well...if 200 holds for a few more days, will start to like bulls chances better.

BUT...of 200 gets blown out...Katy, Bar the Door

 

 

 

 

Edited by K Wave, 10 September 2022 - 08:13 AM.

[K Wave]

TSLA look...what the bears have going for them here is that the 200 day MA is now DECLINING, so a 1 or 2 day throwover is totally allowable.

 

But sustained action above that 200 likely flips the script back to bullish.

Essentially bears have to get back under 290 quickly and keep it under.

Failure to do would likely let bulls start to take it away...

 

 

And 3 and 4 hour all hours charts show why bulls may not be out of the pen just yet....

Still looking very much like possible long term rollover in progress.

 

Interesting juncture for sure....

 

3 hour

 

 

4 hour

 

[12SPX]

 

the bottom was in 3 months ago eh......and it took u this long to finally recognize it in hindsite????   who needed who???   lol

 

I took three months to recognize the bottom, but you took every minor low since December to finally catch the right bottom

 

The spx is barely up 10% from the low of three months ago, so I missed 10%.........how much did it cost to you calling the bottom at every minor low ?  

 

That is very true, its really easy being a bull, much harder being a trader.  The bulls on here wish it was just called "bull talk" instead of "Traders talk" lol but I appreciate your comments and respect your calls right or wrong, once everyone does that we'll all see great comments!!